With sports wagering now being legal (finally) in Kentucky let’s get ahead of the game and break down the ACC from a betting perspective.
Sports wagering will officially be legal in Kentucky as early as September 7th, 2023.
With that in mind, Kentuckians will finally be able to wager on sports from the comfort of their homes– Or anywhere in the state.
A rabid college sports culture in the state will get to sink its claws into a college football slate, potentially beginning in week 2.
Before we can legally bet on the college football season, let’s take a look at the local sports scene, starting with the ACC.
Where will Louisville football land? And what are the best bets in the ACC?
Let’s dive in.
The content on this page is for informational purposes only. The State of Louisville LLC makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
Boston College
Win Total: 5.5
Boston College is a perfectly average team with a projected win total of 5.5 games. I do have a decent amount of belief in Jeff Hafley and his ability to bounce back from a 3-9 performance last season. Looking into their schedule I see a set record of 3 wins and 5 losses leaving the games between Northern Illinois, Army, UConn, and Virginia Tech as the deciding matchups.
Hoping that they win 3 out of 4 toss-up games is not a business I am interested in being involved with.
Prediction: Over
Confidence Level: 5
Total Units Bet: 0
Clemson
Win Total: 9.5
Clemson enters 2023 as the favorite to win the ACC and has a projected win total of 9.5 games. Will Shipley is set to be one of top Running Backs in the country and new OC Garrett Riley will be looking to make his impact early as he continues to jockey for a head coaching job. Breaking down their schedule I see a team that has a set record of 9 wins and 0 losses with Florida State, North Carolina, and Notre Dame being the deciding matchups.
I feel confident that Clemson will win 1 of the 3 toss-up games and that will be enough to put them over the 9.5 projection.
Prediction: Over
Confidence Level: 8
Total Units Bet: 1
Duke
Win Total: 6.5
The schedule was not kind to the Blue Devils this year and their projected win total of 6.5 is not reflective of the talent that Duke has on their roster. In my estimation, Duke has a set record of 4 wins and 5 losses which would leave games between North Carolina State, Wake Forrest, and Pittsburgh as the deciding games.
Although I love what Duke is doing, I would recommend passing on this.
Prediction: Over
Confidence: 3
Total Units Bet: 0
Florida State
Win Total: 9.5
Who doesn’t love Florida State (he said with heavy sarcasm)? FSU brings a 9.5 implied win total into the new season, and it is hard to see a path where they go under that margin. I see a set record of 10 wins with 0 losses and toss-up games between LSU and Clemson. Although I believe they lose both games, it is a hard bet to pass up on.
I don’t often hope I lose money, but this is one of those times.
Prediction: Over
Confidence: 7
Total Units Bet: 1.5
Georgia Tech
Win Total: 4.5
Georgia Tech is one of the hardest teams to predict for this upcoming season. After closing the season with a 4-4 record in 2022 it is hard to know if Brent Key was the reason for the turnaround or if Geoff Collins was just that bad.
Vegas is not a believer and has issued them an insulting implied win total of 4.5 games. I also am not a believer and I see a set record of 2 wins and 8 losses leaving the games between Bowling Green and Boston College as the only potential toss-up games.
Even if they win both toss-up games I am still hitting the under.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 5
Total Units Bet: 1.5
Miami
Win Total: 7.5
When you see an implied win total of 7.5 Vegas is telling you that they have no idea what to do. Every year Miami is the definition of a 7.5 implied win team. No one would be surprised if they went under, and no one would be surprised if they went over.
I have them projected with a set record of 7 wins and 3 losses with deciding games being between Texas A&M and Louisville. If you choose to bet on this total please email us, we will point you to the correct support groups.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 0
Total Units Bet: 0
NC State
Win Total: 6.5
North Carolina State is another team that is impossible to predict. Vegas has given them a 6.5 implied win total and there is no way to feel good about this number. I have them with a set record of 5 wins and 5 losses leaving them with games between Duke and Wake Forrest as the make-or-break games.
I do not have a good feel for this roster, so this will be a stay away team for me.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 0
Total Units Bet: 0
North Carolina
Win Total: 8.5
North Carolina brings a top Quarterback and an easy schedule into their 2023 season. If there was ever a season for UNC to finally break through this is their opportunity. Despite their schedule they only bring an 8.5 implied win total into the season and that feels far too low for me. I have them projected with a set record of 11 wins and 1 loss with no toss up games.
I have been wrong before, but this feels like an opportunity to make money.
Prediction: Over
Confidence: 9
Total Units Bet: 2
Pittsburgh
Win Total: 6.5
Pittsburg is yet another ACC school with a 6.5 implied win total and another team that is impossible to get a read on. I have Pittsburg with a set record of 4 wins and 5 losses leaving the games between Wake Forrest, Syracuse, and Duke as the deciding games.
This team is another easy pass for me.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 3
Total Units Bet: 0
Syracuse
Win Total: 6.5
Stop me if you have heard this before, but Syracuse brings a 6.5 implied win total into their 2023 season. My model has them with a set record of 7 wins and 3 losses which would have them hitting the over before they needed to win one of their two toss-up games.
I will hit this over, but I am already not happy about it.
Prediction: Over
Confidence: 4
Total Units Bet: .5
Virginia
Win Total: 3.5
This Virginia team does not need a breakdown. I have them with a set record of 1 win and 11 losses. They are bad. That is all.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 8
Total Units Bet: 2
Virginia Tech
Win Total: 5.5
Virginia Tech got better as the season went on last year, but it was not enough to convince Vegas that they will turn a corner in 2023. I have them projected with a set record of 4 wins and 6 losses leaving them with toss up games between Purdue and Boston College.
This team is an easy pass for me.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 6
Total Units Bet: 0
Wake Forest
Win Total 6.5
Wake Forrest is yet another middle-of-the-road ACC team with a 6.5 projected win total. My model has them projected with a set record of 5 wins and 3 losses. Even with them only needing to win 2 of their toss-up games, I am still going to pass on this Heartless (get it?) Wake Forrest team.
Prediction: Under
Confidence: 4
Total Units Bet: 0
Louisville
Win Total: 8.5
I need you to lean in for a second and listen to me. Nothing I am getting ready to say is rational. You can go elsewhere for that.
Have you ever been in a moment in time where you just felt like you needed to pull your phone out and start recording? You didn’t know why, but you could just feel something happening around you. This feels like one of those moments for Louisville football. Jeff Brohm is finally back and I am going to faint from excitement when we throw the ball on 3rd and 12.
My model has Louisville with a set record of 9 wins and 0 losses with the games between Notre Dame, Miami, and Kentucky as the toss-up games. I’m going to be honest; I don’t know what to do with that. I believe it’s right, but it feels like I could be lying to myself.
With that being said, I will be taking out a loan tomorrow to bet the over.
Prediction: Over
Confidence: 7
Total Units Bet: 1.5
3 thoughts on “2023 Betting Preview: Best bets in the ACC”