Presley Meyer and Jacob Lane join forces to predict what happens to former Louisville football stars during this weekend’s 2021 NFL Draft.
Jacob: I don’t know about you, but for me, the NFL Draft has always been a national holiday. There’s nothing better than securing the (Roosters) bag pre-daft and watching college football stars secure their own bag. Over the years we’ve been fortunate to watch several former Louisville football players realize their NFL dreams. In fact, that’s what has always made the intrigue of the draft so high for me.
This year’s draft comes with a ton of excitement if you’re a Louisville football fan. It’s unlikely any former Cards will hear their name called during Thursday night’s first round. By the weekend’s end, however, there could be three or more players drafted with plenty of others signed to training camp rosters.
Presley: Sweet. I personally cannot wait to be wrong about all of this.
Jacob: That’s the spirit. Let’s take a closer look at how things could go over the course of the weekend.
What’s the Louisville football headline at the conclusion of this weekend’s draft?
Jacob: “Louisville football stars fall in draft but find strong-fits”
Presley: That feels a bit vanilla. Care to elaborate?
Jacob: Creativity is not my strong suit; you know this. I may get an ‘F’ for creativity but the prediction deserves an A. We’ve seen Atwell mocked as high as the first round over the last few months, so I think it may shock some people that he falls. I also think Hawkins could fall into the 3rd day because of his size and lack of versatility.
Fitzpatrick was never expected to be a high pick by any means, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him end up as a 5th or 6th rounder.
Falling isn’t always the worst thing in the world – depending on where you land. I think this weekend all three guys will go later than their general expected placement – but end up with squad’s where they have the ability to impact right away.
Presley: I’ll keep my headline short and sweet. “Former Louisville Football Player Dez Fitzpatrick Drafted Higher Than Expected; Some Franchises Still Know How Business is Done”
Jacob: sdsd (If you get his reference we can be friends)
Presley: In all seriousness, I think that some team is going to surprise some people and jump at the chance to snag Fitzpatrick early on day three. I know that isn’t a sexy answer. However, Fitzpatrick is projected as a late-round pick or a UFA by most experts.
In my opinion, once you get into those day three guys, a lot of players seem to blend together. The same franchises- New England, Seattle, Indianapolis, etc.- that win in the late rounds are the ones that find great situational fits with their teams.
Fitzpatrick has work to do once he gets to the league. Scouts aren’t super impressed with his ability to create separation the middle of the field, and he is projected as more of a deep ball threat. With that said, Fitzpatrick has an NFL-ready body, showcased solid fundamentals, and is a guy who undoubtedly impressed when he met with teams. He was a leader in college and showed consistency through adversity. As we often say about guys coming out of college, all it takes is one team to fall in love with him. In Fitzpatrick’s case, his workmanlike game and attitude are likely to stand out.
If there is a Louisville player in this draft that is going to be selected higher than we expect, it has to be Fitzpatrick.
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Who is drafted first?
Jacob: As much as I think the weight of Tutu Atwell (weighed in under 155 pounds) will play a role in his drafting, I still think he’ll be first off the board. Even with his slight frame, NFL teams are going to see someone capable of becoming a home-run threat. While 2020 was a down year for Atwell due to injury, offensive inefficiencies, etc, his tape in 2019 is all that a General Manager should need.
In Satterfield’s first season Atwell was one of the most explosive and productive receivers in college football. He constantly was able to beat man-to-man coverage with ease (something he’ll face in the NFL. And despite his slender frame, he was able to stay healthy and time and time again make big plays.
There are so many ways you can use Atwell in a modern NFL offense and I think that’s why he’ll be the first off the board.
Presley: I am right there with you on this one. The NFL is more pass-happy than ever, and players like Ceedee Lamb, Hollywood Brown, and Tyreek Hill are showing that it can be advantageous for teams to draft burners even earlier in the draft.
It’s the trendy thing right now to draft smaller, speedier, shiftier receivers. Consider also that three of the first four receivers off the board on Thursday night- Ja’Maar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith- are below average in stature, but are known for their blazing speed.
Atwell is far smaller than all three of those players and there are still questions about whether or not he can be a “complete” receiver. However, his body of work combined with a style of play that lends to him being an immediate commodity lead me to believe that he will be an early fourth-round guy and the first Louisville football player off the board.
Who is the last Cardinal drafted?
Jacob: I would tend to think that Dez Fitzpatrick would be the last of the Cardinals drafted but I’m leaning more and more to Javian Hawkins. I’ve seen Hawkins mocked anywhere from the third round to the seventh round, showing there’s a wide window. He’s a smaller back who only had one year of solid production – both of which will raise concern. He’s a solid runner who has a ton of great highlights but there are questions about his ability to be an every-down back at the NFL level. Especially considering he’s not a pass-catching back.
I personally think Hawkins could end up being a steal in the draft (because of course I do), but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see a fallinto day three.
Presley: I, again, am in agreement with you. I think Hawkins might be waiting a little longer than we expect.
This has less to do with Hawkins’ body of work and more to do with what teams need and how he fits in the league. Running backs are looked at as risky takes these days because of their short shelf life. Hawkins was right to come out as early as possible. While you are correct, Jacob, that he has a smaller body of work, to play devil’s advocate a bit, Hawkins has less wear and tear on his body. Teams know those carries add up, and that will be counted against him even more because of his slight stature.
Ultimately, I think Hawkins goes last among these three players just because he is more of a guy who has to find the right fit in a system. Small running backs without a proven body of work catching the ball out of the backfield are difficult to pull the trigger on.
Who do you feel the most confident about in the NFL?
Presley: I feel the most confident about Dez in the league because I think he has the highest baseline. What I mean by that is Fitzpatrick feels like he could go anywhere in the league right now and fit in. He fit well in two completely different systems, working with four different starting quarterbacks.
Dez is just a pro’s pro. He was coming out of high school, he has been in college, and he will be in the league. He has NFL size, he is a sure-handed pass-catcher, an above-average blocker, and a proven commodity. I really like what he brings to whatever franchise he ends up with.
Jacob: It’s like you listened to my podcast and said what I said?
Seriously though, Dez is going to be a better professional than he was collegiate player. Mark my words.
He is the most complete player drafted from Louisville football since Jaire Alexander. He just doesn’t have the production or ability to boast about being a #1 receiver.
It may be the sixth round or it may be the third. Where ever Dez is drafted he’ll eventually end up being a starting receiver.
Okay, how about least confident?
Presley: Again, I am going to say Hawkins here just because he really has to find that situational fit. He might have the highest ceiling of the three Louisville stars in this draft but he probably has the lowest floor as well.
Jacob: I am going with Tutu. Dude is about to be the lightest player drafted since 1999, and that is no small feat.
I know he’s a burner. I know he’s going to see nothing but single-coverage. But at 155 to 165 (wherever he ends up) I think aggressive defensive backs will be able to cover him better than college corners. Not to say Tutu won’t become a solid role player but I worry about his size leading to struggles on the field and potentially injuries.
Here’s a curveball – what should the Ravens do in the Draft?
Jacob: 100% without question, the Baltimore Ravens should call up the Atlanta Falcons and ask them who they’d want them to draft.
Presley: Uh, what?
Jacob: Yes. Eric DeCosta should ring Terry Fontenot and ask who he would pick at either spot. If that player is there, draft them, stash them, and use them in a trade for Julio Jones after June 1st.
Presley: Bippity boppity give me the soppity.
Jacob: It’s a weird scenario and honestly, I’m not sure you can trade draft picks post draft. My draft trade expertise only extends to the NBA. But still, the Ravens need to be 100% in on getting Julio Jones from the Falcons. It was reported this week that the Falcons are willing to listen to offers but because of contracts, money’s, and other nonsense, it can’t happen until June.
Did you see what the Bills getting Stefon Diggs did for Josh Allen last year? Not only did he go from an average passing QB to one of the best in the AFC – but he won big games.
Lamar’s biggest points of criticism have been; 1) Not winning the big games 2) Not being able to take the passing game to the next level
Those are both true and doing everything to get a Julio Jones should be priority numero uno.
Presley: I don’t hate it. I just don’t like it all, and it’s terrible.
Jacob: Lamar needs a top-shelf weapon and you know this.
Presley: Well, Baltimore has two first-round picks and I would think that they want to use those to fill their most immediate needs.
To me, Baltimore needs a starting edge rusher, a safety, and a multifaceted receiver.
Among the players projected in the first round, I love Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman at wide receiver and Miami’s Gregory Rousseau on the defensive line. I know there are rumors floating around about the Ravens showing interest in Julio Jones, but they are much better served from a financial standpoint to draft two high-level receivers and use their money to bolster the defensive line or secondary.
Alright, so where does each Louisville player get drafted, and by who?
Presley: I mean, there are so many moving parts that by day three, my opinion will probably be completely different. However, just for shits and gigs I’ll give this a go:
Tutu Atwell- Fourth Round- LAC
Dez Fitzpatrick- Sixth Round- Baltimore
Javian Hawkins- Seventh Round- Jacksonville
Jacob: Matt and I did this on the last episode of From The Pink Seats, and I actually kind of like where I have each player going. But I’ll try again since it’s been some time:
Tutu Atwell – Indianapolis Colts, Fourth round (#127)
Dez Fitzpatrick – New Orleans Saints, Sixth round (#218)
Javian Hawkins – Atlanta Falcons, Sixth round (#219)
