Well, I said I was terrified heading into a Louisville football nooner vs SMU last week, and all my fears came true.
The Cards played some undisciplined football, their banged-up secondary and linebacking corps was woeful, and the offensive line allowed the Mustangs just enough pressure to put the game to bed.
After two- three, really- performances that simply weren’t up to snuff, Louisville football head coach Jeff Brohm says the Cards are going back to the basics. They will try to simplify things- especially on the defensive side of the ball. Brohm says simplification and making sure each player knows his assignment to a T was the primary focus in practice.
Still, this onlooker is quite terrified of the prospects of a 4-1 Virginia team on the road.
Since joining the ACC, Louisville football has often struggled against overmatched Cavaliers squads.
There’s just something about Scott Stadium that leads to sleepy performances.
Since 2014, Louisville football is 2-3 in Scott Stadium. Its two victories came in a miraculous finish in the ‘Hoos 2016 upset bid of Lamar Jackson and a surprise victory with backup Brock Domann under center in 2022.
This year, Louisville faces easily the best Tony Elliot-led squad yet, and perhaps the best version of Virginia it’s faced in the 10-year history of the rivalry.
Let’s dive in to the Cards and the Wahoos.
Who: Louisville (3-2, 1-1) at Virginia (4-1, 2-0)
Where: Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, VA
When: Saturday, October 12th at 3:30 PM
How to Watch: ACC Network
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: Louisville leads 7-5
Last Meeting: Louisville won 31-24 last season
Spread Check: Louisville -7.5
Thread Check:
I like ’em. Though, I will echo the sentiments of many who feel the script helmets should be accompanied by a script jersey.
The Cards on the side is so sharp, though.
Get ready for Louisville vs. Virginia with From the Pink Seats.
Where Virginia will look to capitalize
It feels like the Virginia gameplan is fairly obvious here.
The Cavs have a quality quarterback in Anthony Colandrea and a legit trio of receivers in Trell Harris, Malichi Fields, and Tyler Neville.
The running back duo of Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown have been a nice complement to Colandrea, who is more than capable of dancing around and extending plays with his feet.
Its in the passing game, however, that Virginia will look to capitalize.
Even if Louisville football corner Quincy Riley is able to go, the Cards’ corners will be tested.
Louisville is 79th nationally in passing yards allowed- a number that has ballooned in the absence of Riley among a thinning core of secondary players.
The key here is going to be the Cards’ secondary holding things down just long enough.
Louisville’s defensive line has been stout, but is not getting home in the pass rush. I think the staff does whatever it can to change that this week.
Where Louisville football can thrive
For Louisville football, its much the same.
Virginia is 123rd nationally in pass yards allowed. Only Wake Forest is worse among power five teams.
Louisville is 9th among all power five teams in passing yards per game.
Last week, wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks ran wild against the SMU secondary and he was two near-catches away from a 200+ yard day.
Virginia has a crop of veteran corners, but they have been exposed on a weekly basis.
I’d say this will be a massive day for Brooks, Chris Bell, Caullin Lacy, and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce.
Lifting the pressure on Brohm and staff
Look, there hasn’t been more of a must-win, prove it road game for Louisville football since… Well, the last time the Cards were in Charlottesville.
And while Louisville and Satt Daddy won definitively in that matchup, this is a far, far different opponent.
Quietly, Louisville football has gone from winning 10 of its first 11 games in the Brohm era to losing 5 of its next 8. It has lost 5 of its last 6 against power four opponents.
Virginia could be legit. It boasts wins over Wake Forest, Boston College, and Coastal Carolina.
A win today would keep the ‘Hoos in no worse than second place in the conference standings, potentially catapulting them into the top 25 for the first time since 2020.
But let’s be real. Louisville football has far more talent and what we believe to be far better coaching.
UVA certainly won’t make this easy. Based on secondary ticket sites, this should be close to a sellout.
But the Cavs have Louisville’s full attention.
I see this either being a close Virginia win or a blowout Louisville win.
Given what we’ve seen thus far, one should expect a massive 350+ yard day from Tyler Shough.
Predictions
Andrea Adelson, ESPN: Louisville
David Hale, ESPN: Louisville
Dan Siegel, Streaking the Lawn: Louisville 34, Virginia 24
Vincent Lococo: Louisville -7.5
Jacob Lane: Virginia +7.5
Matt McGavic: Virginia +7.5
Keith Arutoff: Virginia +7.5
Alexis Cubit, The Courier-Journal: Louisville 34, Virginia 21
Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle: Louisville 34, Virginia 21
Pres’ Picks:
So, I’ve waffled on this all week. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is yet another way-too-close game in Scott Stadium. Or if Virginia even wins outright.
We’ve kind of harped on this since Georgia Tech. Louisville has been playing some undisciplined football, and that is not easy to correct over one week of practice.
Players have been lost way too much. Blame it on helmet comms or whatever you want, there are zero excuses. The opponent has to deal with the same things too and thus far, the one-score magic has flipped in the other direction after a wild ride a season ago.
Still, I think this is a better team than the 2023 edition and I am far too proud to predict that a season where the Cards have freaking studs in Tyler Shough, Ja’Corey Brooks, Caullin Lacy, Quincy Riley, and Ashton Gillotte is just going to go up in flames half way in.
I think this is the game where Brohm and Co. show they still have that moxy and get this shit done.
Louisville 48, Virginia 24
Tyler Shough 325+ Passing Yards (+265)
Tyler Shough 3+ Passing TDs (+185)
Ja’Corey Brooks 100+ Receiving Yards (+175)
