The Cardinal hosts the Cardinals for the first time in program history. Can Louisville football stay consistent off a second bye week?
It feels like Louisville football took down Clemson a month ago.
While it’s only been 14 days since the historic upset, some stuff has happened. Men’s and women’s basketball has been in full swing. The weather has completely changed. It’s dark now at 4:30. We have a new president. There’s a lot going on, okay?
What we desperately need is the sweet release of Louisville football.
You don’t realize how much your fall escape means to you until you notch the biggest road win in program history and then have to sit and wait for the next game for two full weeks.
In the meantime, a lot has been happening around the ACC. And while we don’t want to put the cart before the horse, there are meaningful implications to UofL games going forward.
Nothing significant is possible, however, unless Louisville wins its next two games. Starting with what should be an overmatched Stanford team. Let’s dive in.
Who: Louisville Cardinals (6-3, 4-2) at Stanford Cardinal (2-7, 1-6)
When: Saturday, November 16th at 3:30 PM ET
Where: Stanford Stadium | Palo Alto, CA
How to Watch: ACC Network
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: First Meeting
Spread Check: Louisville -20.5
Thread Check:
They’re growing on me.
Weather Check: 57 and sunny at kick. No chance of rain.
Stanford’s path to 2-7
Wins:
vs. Cal Poly 41-7
at Syracuse 28-26
Losses:
vs. TCU 34-27
at Clemson 40-14
vs. Virginia Tech 31-7
at Notre Dame 49-7
vs. SMU 40-10
vs Wake Forest 27-24
at NC State 59-28
Louisville’s path to 6-3
Wins:
62-0 vs Austin Peay
49-14 vs Jacksonville St
31-19 vs Georgia Tech
24-20 at Virginia
31-27 at Boston College
33-21 at Clemson
Losses:
31-24 at Notre Dame
34-27 vs SMU
52-45 vs Miami
Keys to Victory
Continue to win the turnover battle
It’s pretty simple. When Louisville football wins the turnover battle, it wins games.
When it loses the turnover battle, bad things happen.
Hold onto the ball, get pressure on the opposition. It’ll be a long night for the Cardinal if they are able to do so.
Complimentary Football
A massive reason for Louisville’s success over the last 6 quarters is the Cards’ ability to ham and egg it well.
Exacting offensive drives led to defensive stops. Quality special teams play gave the offense advantageous field position.
It seems like Louisville football is learning how to play into its strengths on both sides of the ball. If that can continue, the outlook will remain positive for the rest of the season.
Own the defensive trenches
If there’s a game where Louisville’s preseason All-American, Ashton Gillotte, should be able to feast, it’s against this Stanford team.
The Cardinal is allowing 3.6 sacks per game.
Freshman QB Ashton Daniels is prone to abandoning plays early, which has led to his heavy usage in the ground game.
Louisville should aim to flush Daniels and contain his ability with his feet.
Daniels will look to extend plays and get the ball to his primary target, Elic Ayomanor.
Ayomanor has been on the receiving end of 45 Stanford completions. The future NFL star will get his, but the name of the game is for Louisville to contain him and not allow chunk plays.
Stanford will likely trot out at least one other QB to mix things up. Justin Lamson and Elijah Brown are two more traditional pocket passers who may see some time.
Because of Daniels’ ability to extend plays and be the de facto No. 1 choice in the run game, he plays the bulk of the snaps.
However, Daniels’ propensity to turn the ball over and make poor, untimely decisions has led to a QB rotation that has helped keep the offense moving at times.
Daniels, however, is the primary concern.
Contain Daniels and Ayomanor and your chances of blowing the Cardinal out early are high.
Predictions
Jacob Lane- Louisville -20.5
Matt McGavic- Louisville -20.5
Vince Lococo- Louisville -20.5
Producer Keith- Louisville -20.5
Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle- 38-10, Louisville
CFB News- 41-17, Louisville
USA Today- 41-14, Louisville
Alexis Cubit, Courier-Journal- 49-10, Louisville
San Diego Sports 760- 42-16, Louisville
Jody Demling, 247Sports- 45-17, Louisville
Michael McCammon, 247Sports- 44-20, Louisville
Pres’ Picks
The antithesis of Louisville’s matchup with Clemson, I cannot find anyone who even thinks this game will be close. Which, of course, worries one just a bit.
Jeff Brohm has become known for dropping a clunker, and my goodness, would this ever be a demoralizing time to do so.
Last season, on the heels of a monster win over Notre Dame, Louisville traveled to Pitt and looked flat out awful, losing to a squad that finished at the bottom of the ACC.
Here we are again. Louisville comes off the biggest road win in school history and a bye week, travels 4 1/2 hours via plane and across two time zones to play a really bad Stanford team in front of an empty stadium.
From a sold out Death Valley at night to a nooner (west coast) against a team that has only been at half capacity twice this season.
The juxtaposition between back-to-back ACC road games couldn’t be more extreme. And the Cardinals will have to bring their own juice.
The fear here, obviously, is that Louisville just gets out to a bad start and lets Stanford hang around.
However, the Cardinal (singular) has not proven to be even competitive in any facet of the game over the course of the season. Its ability to keep things close has dipped more in each passing conference game.
Stanford is near last in power five football in pass yards allowed. It is 113th nationally in total yards allowed. The Cardinal has a -0.6 turnover margin and is dead last in power five football with 1.6 interceptions thrown per game.
If Louisville were to inexplicably keep this one too close for comfort or even lose outright, it’s going to be because of the one thing that’s killed this team all year: QB runs.
Ashton Daniels has a knack for the big play. Last week at NC State, Daniels had 67 and 48-yard TD rushes. Both were on designed runs in obvious passing downs.
Louisville football fans are all too familiar with the inability of this defense to keep contain on QB runs. The discipline has to be there or Stanford can take advantage more than we are wanting to give them credit for.
Ultimately, I think this Stanford defense is putrid and the explosive playmakers for Louisville are going to be able to take advantage in a major way.
Isaac Brown is 200 yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard mark and I think he gets pretty close to hitting that number on Saturday.
Tyler Shough should have a field day against the Louisville secondary and there is no one out there that can cover receiver Ja’Corey Brooks.
I think Louisville wins and covers, but on the back of its offense.
Louisville 52, Stanford 24
UNDERDOG FANTASY PLAY OF THE DAY
Use code STARTINGFIVE to match your first deposit up to $1,000.
Tyler Shough HIGHER 280.5 pass yards
Isaac Brown HIGHER 99.5 rush yards
Ja’Corey Brooks HIGHER 1.5 rec. TDs
Elic Ayomanor HIGHER 25.5 longest rec.
Other plays (sportsbooks):
Ashton Daniels 1+ rushing TD (+180)
