Bubba Cunningham… what are you doing to Louisville basketball?
By now, most Louisville basketball fans know that the head of the 2025 Tournament Selection Committee was Bubba Cunningham, the athletic director at the University of North Carolina, who received a $68,000 gratuity when the Tar Heels were fortunate enough to make the field of 68.
When I first heard that Pat Kelsey’s 27-7, tenth ranked, ACC runner-up Louisville Cardinals, who have lost two games in three months, were seeded eighth in their bracket in the NCAA tournament, I thought the committee had to have been ran by Mr. Flathead and Mrs. Philips-Head. Mr. Cunningham makes sense, too, now that I think about it.
But I’m not aggravated because North Carolina gets to dance. In fact, I think the bracket is better for having them in it. The Tar Heels’ 24 point comeback in the second half against top ranked Duke was a statement in and of itself, not to mention that they play in the ACC and have a great non-conference schedule. I’m also not ungrateful to be playing in the tournament: the past several years have shown residents of the State of Louisville that being a blue blood program doesn’t guarantee your inclusion in March Madness, unless, of course, it’s a Carolina-blue blood. Also, the fact that the Cards get to play in the first round 70 miles from the Yum! Center is, itself, a gift. But it’s not the gift that the team earned.
Understanding the Committee’s decision
The national rankings are generally divided between two main polls, the AP and the Coaches. Yes, there are many others, some of them using complicated metrics and computer diagnostics, but the AP and Coaches are the ones we generally pay attention to all year. The Associate Press Poll is determined by 62 sports writers from all over the country. The Coaches Poll voters represent each of the 32 Division One conferences that receive an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, with each coach submitting a top 25. First place votes get 25 points, second place gets 24, and so on.
As the season progresses, teams toggle and shift. Climbing in the polls requires sustained success, as does maintaining national ranking, and each is subjected to weekly evaluation. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most important and accepted barometer for determining who is who for each athletic year, for most of the year, anyway.
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It was all flawed
Let me tell you about “The Matt Osbourn Selection Committee.” The members of the committee are the nation’s top sports writers and coaches, the criteria is the performance of each team throughout their season, and each team’s seeding in the tournament is based on their national ranking. It’s not suggested as a replacement for the current metrics, but more as a guidepost to keep the current committee honest: after all, there should logically be at least a loose correlation between our evaluation of teams throughout the year and their placement in the tournament that concludes that year…right?
Well, there is. Mostly. Listed below are the one through eight seeds. On one side is the AP Poll, on the other is the Coaches Poll, and next to each team is how far they jumped, fell, or stayed in their seeding based on where each poll would have placed them. The Matt Osbourn selection Committee allows for a one to two seed margin of error. For example: take Chucky Hepburn’s former team, the Wisconsin Badgers. The Selection committee places them 12th overall, a 3 seed (in the third group).
The AP Poll has them ranked 13th, and the Coaches Poll 10th. So for the AP Poll, they jumped up one from their appropriate seed, from a 4 to a 3, and for the Coaches Poll, their seeding was appropriate for their ranking. In fact, all of the Top 25 teams in both polls stay within a two seed margin of error, with the exception of three outlying incidents…
** AP and Coaches Poll list Top 25 teams
** NCAA seeding represents each seed (1-8) in groups of 4 (Example 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida)
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The math ain’t mathin’
As you can see above, all the one seeds correspond to their appropriate rankings, one through four, in both polls. All two seeds correspond as well, five through eight. In fact, every team in the Top 25 of both polls falls safely within the margin of error, being seeded within one or two seeds corresponding with their appropriate rankings in both polls, with two exceptions. Kentucky jumped three seeds, being ranked 21 in the Coaches Poll while receiving a three seed (they fell within the margin of error, jumping two seeds, in the AP Poll).
Then there’s Louisville basketball. The Cards dropped five seeds from where they should have been placed based on their position in both polls. Five seeds: it’s an anomaly, an outlier that far exceeds the difference found in the correlation of any other program’s placement and ranking in the Top 25. It’s not even close.
After what happened in 2005, I supposed we shouldn’t be surprised. Still, the idea of finishing the season ranked 10th and 11th, and receiving an 8 seed just doesn’t make sense. At what point do games stop mattering? Auburn finished the season losing three of their last four games. Louisville hasn’t lost three games in 2025, period.
Clemson got a five seed, which isn’t fair in its own right: Clemson beat Kentucky, and was ranked 12th and 13th. But we beat Clemson twice, and are still seeded three below the Tigers. Three. If there were all kinds of outliers, or even a couple, or even one that was comparable to the Cards’ situation, it would take some of the credence from my shoulder’s chip, but there are none; not, at least, amongst ranked teams that got into the tournament.
Just win
In the end, there’s no point in lamenting the seeding. It cannot be changed, and, if dancing as long as possible is the goal, at some point your partner is going to be a beast. I’m legitimately happy that my alma mater is still playing basketball on Thursday. I just think that the body of work that Pat Kelsey and the Cards have put together this year deserves to be appreciated and respected a bit more.
It’s time to earn that respect. But those of us who love Louisville basketball, who have been following them all this year, and all the years before, know that they should already have it.
