It’s All About Momentum
What a first ACC Weekend. Notre Dame was fresh off a series win at Duke, and have an offense predicated on getting base hits. If you were fooled into thinking they were a power bat lineup because of the whole…ya know, two Grand Slams in one inning before Louisville could record the first out thing, then you can be forgiven. They simply found their power at the right time against the Cards on Friday night.
In the recap of the weekend, I called out that even with the fourth inning debacle that resulted in 10 Irish runs, Louisville had the firepower to win that game. I made the mistake in my recap saying that two-out RBIs won that game for the Irish. They scored two runs with two outs, one in each of the seventh and eighth innings. Their run in the sixth came after three walks and was with one out. Notre Dame scored 12 of their 14 runs with fewer than two outs. If Louisville so much as mitigated the nightmarish fourth, finishes the sixth without needless walks, and gets off the field in the seventh and eighth innings without two-out RBIs, we’re talking about a series sweep of a good Notre Dame team. You know what they say about ifs, ands, and buts, however…
Alas, my error notwithstanding, pitching has just got to be better. Louisville has boasted some great offenses in the past few years that have been hampered by bad bullpens. I don’t know how else to say that. Last season, whatever switch flipped in the Regional, was incredible. It’s time to flip that switch again right now.
Leadoff walks.
Bases loaded walks.
3-0 counts.
Two-out hits/two-out RBIs.
These are what can and will undo a season (2023 calling). Of the 170 cumulative innings recorded by Louisville pitchers this season, they’ve surrendered 111 walks. That’s 0.65 walks per inning. That translates to giving up at least one walk in almost 2/3 of the innings they’ve been on the mound.
Everyone on that staff and in that bullpen was recruited as a high-D1 talent. There have been too many names, most of all the ones on the Right Field wall, who have been dominant college pitchers in this program and it’s up the these guys on this team to have enough pride in their skill and ability to hit spots and get outs.
Having a Nick Burdi, or a Tony Zych in the bullpen would be huge, but this team doesn’t need that. This team needs consistency and someone who can pitch to weak contact. Roger Williams didn’t get to where he is by being a bad or middling pitching coach – but this is becoming a yearly trend of being unable to fully lean on a bullpen that seems unable to compliment the leads and situations that the offense presents.
If Louisville Baseball is going to win a National Championship, it cannot and will not do so on offense alone, or by hoping that the bullpen finds the postseason magic.
What happens in the regular season prepares a team for the run they make in May and June. The fire needs to be lit now, not two months from now.
This Louisville Offense is ELITE
Photo by Taris Smith – University of Louisville Athletics
I could have chosen several guys for a photo there, read on to find out why it’s Griffin Crain. Ben Slanker had a weekend, Tague Davis (45 RBIs now) is having a SEASON, Alex Alicea (.346) is rounding into his usually-reliable form, and man oh man, what a boost Zion Rose (.571) has given this team in his five games back from an ankle injury.
The Cards batted .500 (21/42) on Sunday, and .420 for the series. That raised the team batting average from .345 to .358. The Cards also had 36 RBIs on 40 runs for the weekend, bringing their season total for runs batted in to 187, and Ben Slanker (.324) had 16 of those. As I mentioned, Tague Davis (.400) now sits at 45 RBIs which is just ridiculous in the BBCOR bat era. He’s on pace for fourth all-time in RBI, set to tie Jeff Ledbetter’s mark of 124 back in the old bat days.
Louisville got the hits they needed, and the run support necessary to get the sweep, but there simply must be more of a sense of urgency from the pitching staff to be a compliment. In a game of momentum and in a program that thrives on momentum, pulling the wind out of this offense’s sails is a recipe for disappointment in a couple months.
It’s no secret that I might be the President of the Griffin Crain Fan Club. After the Notre Dame Series, the redshirt Freshman is batting a scintillating .474 with a 1.314 OPS. Six doubles, a triple, a pair of home runs, and 26 RBIs. Not to mention 12 walks and five HBPs to only five strikeouts. I could easily have awarded the (not real but hypothetical) MVP for the weekend to Ben Slanker, but with the two inning-ending diving plays in the outfield, coupled with doing his job what seemed like every single time at the plate, Crain was HIM against Notre Dame. He’s a luxury that other powerhouse teams wish they had in the event a leader were to suffer an injury as Rose did, pushing Crain into the starting lineup. Now, it’s difficult for Dan McDonnell to take Crain out, but Rose at DH is working out great so far for this offense.
Let’s Look at the Norse
Northern Kentucky has a win over an SEC squad in South Carolina during their opening weekend series in Columbia. They were swept by Florida State in Tallahassee, but maybe their most intriguing opponent is Morehead State, who got the best of Louisville 13-5 week before last. The Norse run-ruled the Eagles 21-6 in seven innings, where they had a dude blast three home runs in the game. It’s safe to say that the Cards will have to be ready for this game to not be a momentum speed bump.
Northern Kentucky Norse
Conference: Horizon League
Head Coach: Dizzy Peyton (all-name team)
Record (8-10) (1-2 Horizon) (Streak: L1)
UofL Series History: 6-0 (5-0 at home) / Streak: W6 (Last: W 12-8, 2008)
Last Series: Lost 1-2 vs. Milwaukee
2025 Result: 31-25 overall / 18-12 Horizon League
2025 Postseason: 1-2 (Horizon League Tournament)
Last NCAA Tournament (2024, 0-2 Knoxville Regional)
College World Series Appearances: (0)
The Norse are a team that has a top-heavy offense, and a pitching staff that doesn’t do much to support the guys holding bats. Sound familiar from a pitching standpoint? Well…the Norse are in worse shape. Let’s start with the offense.
The Norse have a couple of regular starters below the Mendoza Line (.200 Batting Average), and four guys batting in the .200s, including Right Fielder Josh Williams, mentioned earlier as hitting three home runs in the win over Morehead. He leads the team with five long balls, and is tied for the team lead with 16 RBIs, but bats just .235, so he’s high-risk/high-reward for the Norse.
The Trio of Second Baseman/Left Fielder Marcus Harrison (.404), Catcher and DH Landon Springmeyer (.310), and Center Fielder Mark Nowak (.302) lead Northern Kentucky, but those three combined only account for 34 RBIs, two home runs, and 13 doubles. They have also struck out a combined 47 times.
The meat of the extra-base hits and runs batted in come from the part of the order that bats a combined .226. It will be imperative, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, that Louisville pitching does its job on Wednesday evening.
On the mound for Northern Kentucky, right-handers Shawn Parnell and Logan Wilson were named to the preseason NCBWA Stopper of the Year Watch List. Those two have had a rough go of it – Logan Wilson is 0-2, his ERA is 6.61 with a 1.96 WHIP after having appeared in six games, starting three of them. in 16.1 innings pitched, he’s allowed 20 hits, 12 runs (all earned), and has a 1:1 K/BB ratio at 12 and 12. Opponents are batting .303 against him, and he’s thrown three wild pitches with two hit batters.
He’s the better of the acclaimed duo. Shawn Parnell has been roughed up in nine appearances with one lone start on the season. He has a 14.14 ERA and a WHIP north of 3, at 3.29. In just seven innings pitched, Parnell has given up 13 hits and 15 runs (11 earned). He’s walked 10, to only eight strikeouts, and has thrown three wild pitches while plunking five batters. Opponents are hitting a whopping .371 against him.
As a staff, The Norse tote around an 8.63 ERA everywhere they go. Midweek games don’t really have a set starter for the Norse, so we could see Parnell, who started vs. Morehead, lefty Gerald Hanson (0-0, 18.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIP), righties MJ Castaneda (1-0, 10.80 ERA, 2.40 WHIP), Evan Fry (0-1, 5.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), or Logan Wilson – all who have started a game this season.
It is worth noting, that in the extra-innings finale loss against Milwaukee, right-hander Gabe Stout (1-0, 7.36 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) had a stretch from the ninth inning into the 12th where he retired 10-straight batters. They could look to get him some extended run if he has the stamina to have decent stuff over several innings.
A Statistical Comparison
Louisville is far and away the better team. There have been some similarities with level of competition, as NKU has the South Carolina and Florida State series under their belts, and has beaten a team (thoroughly) that beat Louisville, but statistically, Louisville should be able to fine tune some things and use this as very good prep for their first ACC road series at North Carolina this coming weekend.
Final Thoughts
I want to see Tague Davis continue his torrid RBI pace, and hopefully add to his #TagueTags home run total as well. I want to see Lucas Moore (.309) not back away on an inside pitch that gets called a strike, especially not strike three. I want to see Jimmy Nugent (.317) continue to climb out of his slump, or George Baker (.261) continue to improve behind the plate and at the dish. Kade Elam (.352) has a chance to continue building on his ballooning batting average, looking much more comfortable in the batter’s box. I want to see Zion Rose, Ben Slanker and Bayram Hot (.408) continue busting baseballs, and yes, I want to see Griffin Crain continue being Mr. Do-it-All for this team.
The pitching isn’t all gloom and doom, either. Zane Stahl’s (0-0, 1.69 ERA / 1.13 WHIP) efforts against Notre Dame in an inning of work on Sunday (1.0 IP, 2 strikeouts and 1 walk) didn’t go unnoticed, as he and Elam were named to Monty Taylor (Just Means Less ACC) Freshman Team of the Weekend for this past weekend.
I also want to make this observation on a broader scale, although I tweeted it during the Saturday game vs. Notre Dame: Jax Hisle (.300) looks like he was created in a top-secret lab. Dude is jacked. More like Jacked Hisle. Anyway…
Photo by Ryan Hammel
On top of continued offensive output at a high clip, I want to see this pitching staff do what feels like I write into every preview and talk about in every recap. I want Roger Williams’ guys to be ahead in counts early, pitch with a lead, pick up the offense, and hit spots. Don’t allow innings to continue with two-out hits, and don’t start innings with a man aboard via a four-pitch free pass.
These things are the signs of a well-rounded and locked-in rotation and bullpen, and if these things don’t start to shape up sooner than later…it’s going to make for a long weekend at the fifteenth-ranked team in the country in Chapel Hill in just a few days.
First pitch against Northern Kentucky at Jim Patterson Stadium has been moved to Wednesday, March 18th at 4:00pm due to the weather forecast on Tuesday.
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