Sports gambling is finally legal for all across The State of Louisville and we are about half way through the regular season and ACC football schedule. Not to mention, the Louisville football program is 6-0 coming off of a game changing victory over Notre Dame. Times are good and the vibes are strong.
Prior to kickoff of the new year we pooled $750 to wager on future bets across the different teams in the ACC. Before things heat up with the Cards upcoming matchup with Pittsburgh, it is time to look back at where things currently stand.
As a reminder, in the article we posted back in August we had taken the over on Florida State and Clemson at 9.5. However, when we went to bet, that number had been moved up to 10 so we did not bet either of those teams.
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Georgia Tech
The win total to begin the season was 4.5 and we bet 1.5 units that they would hit the under on that number. The bad news is that 6 games into the season Georgia Tech has already gotten 3 wins and only need 2 more for us to lose (just kneel the ball). The good news is that they are getting ready to have some tough games, so we are not out of it yet.
We are going to assume that Georgia Tech will beat Virginia later in the year to give them 4 wins. We are also going to assume that they will lose to Georgia, Clemson, and North Carolina. That means that this bet will come down to Syracuse and Boston College. If Tech can find a way to win one of those two then we are dead in the water, but until then anything is possible!
Win total: 4.5
Prediction: Under
Current record: 3-3
Confidence: 2
North Carolina
The win total for UNC coming into the year was 8.5. Given their schedule and offensive talent we bet the over with a 9 on the confidence meter. With 2 units on the line and 5 games already in the books UNC finds themselves with a perfect 5-0 record.
We only need 4 more wins for this bet to cash and I like where we are currently sitting. We are going to assume that UNC can beat Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Campbell. That means they will need just 1 win over Miami, Duke, Clemson, or NC State for this to be a win. I’m still feeling confident about this outcome.
Win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over
Current record: 5-0
Confidence: 9
Syracuse
Going into the season I was not confident that Syracuse would hit their 6.5 total, but my model had them at 7 wins, so we bet the over anyways. Halfway through the season Syracuse already has 4 wins and they only need 3 more for that bet to cash.
Let’s assume they can beat Virginia Tech and Pittsburg putting them at 6 wins. That means they will need to win 1 game over Florida State, Boston College, Georgia Tech, or Wake Forrest. Although I did not feel confident about this going into the season, we are looking good now!
Win total: 6.5
Prediction: Over
Current record: 4-2
Confidence: 6
Virginia
UVA had an abysmal 3.5 win total going into the season, and although it is risky taking such a low under, my model had them winning only 1 game this season. Halfway through the season they have won their 1 game, and they still seem to be floundering.
We are going to assume they will lose their games against ranked opponents which only leaves Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech as reasonable wins. Upsets can happen any week, but I don’t see how UVA wins 3 more games to finish out the season.
Win total: 3.5
Prediction: Under
Current record: 1-5
Confidence: 9
Louisville
Louisville carried a modest 8.5 win total coming into the season and although we had a ton of question marks I ultimately bet on Brohm to hit the over in his first season. It has not been pretty in some games, but for the sake of this bet we need just 3 more wins to cash this ticket.
Louisville still plays Virginia, Pittsburg, and Virginia Tech. Those three wins would be good enough to get us over the line and we would still have 3 more chances even if we did stumble in one of those games. Cards on top!
Win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over
Current record: 6-0
Confidence: 9
