Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson host a narrative-swinging game against a hot Texans squad. Our team gives our bets and predictions.
The entire sports world knows it. This is a legacy game for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore.
Jackson is on the verge of his second MVP in five seasons. He’s beaten every team in the league. He is in a league of his own statistically.
But the one thing missing from his resume is pretty much any success in the playoffs.
Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs all-time and finished the season injured the last two years.
Finally healthy for a playoff run, he is hungier than ever to finally get to a Super Bowl.
Standing in his way first are the Houston Texans.
After an improbable run to the playoffs under a first year head coach and with a rookie QB, the Texans made easy work of the Browns in the Wild Card round.
Can Houston shock the world, or is this the year Jackson gets it done?
What to Know
Who: Houston Texas at Baltimore Ravens
Where: M&T Bank Stadium; Baltimore, MD
When: January 20th, 2023 at 4:35 ET
What’s at Stake: Winner faces Bills or Cheifs in AFC Championship Game
Drink of the game: Blackeyed Susans (Just mix OJ, pineapple juice, and vodka- Trust us, it’s good)
Spread Check: Ravens -9.5 (-440 ML)
O/U: 43.5 (Over: -115, Under: -105)
Thread Check:
Ravens are 2-0 when wearing this combo in the playoffs.
Predictions
It’s fun to talk about the great weapons for both teams. But this game could come down to performance in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
I am all for a game where Lamar Jackson finally goes wild in a playoff game and takes another step toward cementing his Hall of Fame legacy- And I still think that could happen.
But this Houston team does a lot of things that give you pause. The Texans present a lot of problems in areas that could challenge Jackson and the Ravens.
Teams have thrown the gauntlet at Jackson this season and the Texans do a great job of winning on the outside.
Houston is 3rd in pass rush win rate among all NFL teams and second in run stop win rate.
Former Louisville football stars Jon Greenard and Sheldon Rankins form a formidable trio with sensational rookie Will Anderson Jr.
The rookie ranks 3rd in the league in pass rush win rate, just behind Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Greenard ranks 6th in the league in pass rush win rate.
The issue for the Texans will be getting to Jackson before he works his magic and find open men downfield.
Jackson is 4th in the league in QBR when under pressure and he faces a secondary that gave up the 9th-most pass yards per game in 2023.
The Texans are allowing the 3rd-highest completion percentage in the league at 68% and that number balloons to 70% when Houston is on the road.
Jackson is completing 67.2% of his passes this year- Good for 7th in the league among full-time starters.
When addressing how Jackson will have to beat the Texans, it’s with his arm.
Houston has allowed the lowest rushing yard total from QBs of any team in the league.
Jackson’s 33 yards in week 1 vs Houston was the 3rd-highest a QB ran for all season against the Texans.
Houston’s defense plays an opportunistic, boom or bust style. It worked to perfection last week against Cleveland.
But Ravens starters are coming off of two weeks rest, and the Texans are going from the friendly confines of a rowdy home stadium and facing the oldest QB in the league to a cold weather road atmosphere starting a dynamic league MVP.
Presley Meyer: Baltimore 35, Houston 23
Corey Miller: Baltimore 35, Houston 17
Jacob Lane: Baltimore 34, Houston 21
Betting Preview
Corey Miller
Corey finished the college football season strong and is looking for a massive NFL playoff push to begin 2024.
We love a No. 1 receiver parlay in the playoffs.
When in matters most, QBs are going to look for their guy. So, its smart to look for the best odds you can get on Baltimore No. 1 Zay Flowers and Houston No. 1 Nico Collins.
Here’s some parlay opportunities on Draftkings
Flowers 40+
+ Collins 60+
+115
Flowers 60+
+ Collins 80+
+316
Collins 100+
+ Flowers 100+
+1519
These are the two clear cut number 1 receivers. Both of their volume and targets have been going up and this game has potential to be back and forth. If it is, then both of these guys have a path to a big game.
Ravens D Anytime TD +500
Stroud is a top 3 QB to build a team around going forward, but he is still a rookie going on the road against the best team. Coming off essentially a 2 week Bye Baltimores D will want to give him some different looks. There is a chance the rookie “rookies”.
Anytime TD Parlay
Collins TD
+ Shultz TD
+ Flowers TD
+ Edwards TD
+6974
Pres Meyer
Bets Bets:
Gus Edwards anytime TD +105
Edwards has scored at least one TD in 7 of the last 11 games, and his production figures to remain steady with Keaton Mitchell sidelined and coming into a full workload.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 pass TD +100
Jackson is going to get 1-on-1 opportunities with receivers Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, Nelson Agholar, Devin Duvernay, and Rashad Bateman. He has been sensational under pressure finding his guys all season.
Isaiah Likely has been a damn machine for this team and, oh yeah, Mark Andrews is expected to see some action on Saturday.
Odell Beckham 50+ yards receiving +175
Beckham has a knack for showing up in big-time games. He went for 116 in a Thursday night game vs Cincinnati in November and 96 against his former team 2 weeks later.
In the only season where his team made a playoff run, Beckham went for at least 50 yards in each game for the Rams in 2022- Including 52 yards and a TD before an injury in the Super Bowl.
Lamar Jackson under 52.5 yards rushing -115
Jackson is out to prove something and there won’t likely be many QB runs against an opponent that is giving up the fewest rush yards to QBs.
Longer shot worth your attention:
Dalvin Cook anytime TD +700
Cook remains one of the best backs in the league, despite his limited action for the Jets this year.
The Ravens added him to the playoff roster for a reason, and having a weapon for the playoffs that has never played a snap on tape poses a distinct advantage.
Remember when the Seahawks added Percy Harvin to the roster just before the 2014 season? Think in those terms.
Jacob Lane’s Same Game Super Parlay
Ravens -9.5
Gus Edwards anytime TD
Zay flowers anytime TD
Nico Collins anytime TD
Over 43.5 points
Lamar alternate 200+ passing
CJ Stroud over 0.5 INT
Odell alternate 25+ yards
+3900
