It’s college football Championship Week. Let’s make some money!
Let’s get this week started with a look at all the great college football that will be happening this weekend! We are still waiting on props to come out for these games so we will not post bets in this article. Instead, we will break down the games and make note of any players and potential props that stand out.
Oregon (-9.5) vs Washington
Oregon and Washington will meet on Friday night for a rematch to determine the Pac-12 Championship. In the first meeting Washington won 36-33 in a back-and-forth fun game to watch. Washington is coming into the game undefeated and looking to lock up their spot in the College Football playoff while Oregon would need a little help but would likely still get in with a win on Friday night.
Oregon carries a massive 9.5 spread for a game that they have already lost this year. Since their loss Oregon has looked like one of the best teams in football but for them to be any more than a 3-point favorite feels wrong. Although I personally think Oregon will get their revenge this week it is hard to ignore getting +280 money for an undefeated team that has already won this exact matchup earlier in the year.
For Washington everything runs through Quarterback Michael Penix. He has struggled recently but in their first meeting he threw for other 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although his consistency has dropped in recent week’s he has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in every game this season except two. Over 1.5 touchdowns will be a prop I will be looking for.
Rome Odunze has separated himself as one of the elite wide receivers in football and it has been so much fun to watch him finally break out this year. In their first matchup he went for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is also on a current 3 game streak of 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. I may back that yardage down for this game to 80 but I am very interested in his ability to get in the endzone twice again.
Dillion Johnson is the bell cow running back for the Huskies. He has 173 carries this year while the next closest player has only 38. Having that built in workload is what we are looking for when we target running backs and if you believe that Oregon will sell out to shut down Odunze then Johnson is worth some big-time flyers this weekend. He has over 80 yards in each of his last five games and has found the endzone in all of those except one. Considering he broke the 100-yard mark in their first matchup I will be taking some solo shots on him to have a big day.
The fighting Will Steins are led by my Heisman choice Bo Nix and he has been lighting up the stat sheets this year. In each of his last four games he has eclipsed the 365-yard mark in passing and has thrown for 16(!) touchdowns in those four games. In their first matchup he threw for 337, so I will be looking to add his 300+ yard prop to parlay.
Troy Franklin is the primary target for this offense, and he has topped 100 yards in every game this season except for three. He has also scored a touchdown in every game this season except two. Considering he went for 154 and a score in their first matchup I don’t see any reason why you shouldn’t target him to repeat his performance.
Tez Johnson and Bucky Irving are two other players props that I will be keeping an eye on. Tez has gotten better and better as the season has gone on and he has topped 125 yards in three of his last 4 games and his target share has been very consistent as of late. Bucky is a pass catching running back that they try to get involved in creative ways. Although he has not been consistent, if you think that Washing ton will sell out to slow down Bo then Bucky has the talent to have a huge game.
Parlay Note: If I can get 1800+ or better odds on Rome and Franklin to both have 100+ yards and 2+ touchdowns then that will be a fun bet to jump in on.
Texas (-15) vs Oklahoma State
We were two overtimes away from getting a Red River rematch, but Oklahoma State was able to play spoiler and crash the championship party. If Texas wins this game, then they are likely in the playoff but the Big 12 is not a fan of the Longhorns, so I would not expect Texas to get the benefit of the whistle of Saturday.
Texas comes into this game limping to the finish line of what has been a great season for them. Texas star running back is out for the season, Quinn Ewers has missed time, and now Xavier Worthy is hobbled as well. Oklahoma State on the other hand is like watching the same game on repeat each week. They are not great but they manage to get the job done. Between the injuries, Texas leaving the Big 12, and the little engine that could Ollie Gordon, -15 feels like too big of a spread and +470 is an enticing number for Oklahoma State to win out right.
Since Johnathon Brooks tore his ACL, I have found myself shying away from betting on Texas props. I like consistency and this Texas team has can not settle on who they like to get involved. Quinn Ewers is an average quarterback disguised as a good quarterback. I trust him to top the 250 yard mark in this game but taking a prop any higher than that would scare me.
Although Xavier Worthy is the most consistent performer for Texas he just does not look right and I am scared there is an injury that they are keeping secret. That uncertainty will keep me away from targeting him this week.
Ja’Tavion Sanders is my favorite play for Texas. He is a big tight end and you can usually get his props with good odds. He has topped 25 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and that low bar is one that should be easy for him to clear this week.
Oklahoma State is the exact opposite of Texas and I have hit on their props and include them in parlays week after week. Alan Bowman has thrown for 225 in each of the last five games and he has topped 300 in three of those. As a 15-point underdog they will likely be playing from behind so him getting 40+ attempts are in the cards. I have been including him at 225 in parlays but for a same game parlay I think you could bet him all the way up to 300 and still feel good.
If you have not watched Ollie Gordon play, then you are in for a treat. He has 8 touchdowns in his last two games, and they have no issue with feeding him the ball time and time again. He has topped 100 yards in eight of his last nine games and although Texas has a good run defense, he is going to get his chance to carry Oklahoma State. There is no bet I would not support on his props; he has the highest ceiling of any running back in college football.
Brennan Presley is another player that I include in parlays every single week. He is a target machine for Bowman and is very active in the screen game. He has topped 50 yards in each of his last four games and he has topped 90 in three of those. If you believe that Oklahoma State will be playing from behind, then he is a must have on your betting slip this week.
Georgia (-6) vs Alabama
This is going to be a great game and easily the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. Georgia and Alabama have been dominate coming down the stretch, but last week they both struggled against rivals who are nowhere close to their respective talent levels. I specifically noted how many lanes Haynes King had to run the ball against Georgia. They cannot afford to give up those same lanes to a quarterback like Milroe this week.
If Georgia wins they will lock up the 1 seed. If Alabama wins that could throw the whole playoff process into a tailspin and we could get two or zero SEC teams in. I can see either team winning this game. It is so event that I would personally stay away from the spread on this one and just bet the money line that you favor the most. This game feels like a toss-up against two good teams.
For Georgia it has been fun to watch the development of Carson Beck throughout the year. Georgia Tech was the first game where he took a step back, but I am willing to throw that game out. He has consistently hit the 250 mark and I expect this game to be higher scoring than expected, so I will be putting him in most of my parlays this week.
Although Beck does a good job spreading the ball around his best skill player is Brock Bowers. Brock sat out last week, but I believe that was precautionary as he has had a lingering knee injury. In the biggest game of the year, I expect the best player on the team to perform. His yardage is up and down, so I will wait to do what makes the most sense with the odds, but his anytime TD prop will be something that I target in same game parlays.
For Alabama Jalen Milroe has been extremely impressive since they gave him the freedom to use his legs. He has topped 200 passing yards in four of his last five games and he has had games where he has exploded in the run game. After watching what King did to Georgia last week I will be looking for another Milroe running explosion. 25+, 50+, and even 100+ rushing yards are all in play for me.
After a few down games Jermaine Burton has bounced back to retake the WR1 role in this offense. He has topped 100 yards in back-to-back weeks, and I will be including his 50+ prop in most of my parlays this week.
Michigan (-23) vs Iowa
I don’t have much to say about this game and I will likely stay away from it from a betting perspective. Iowa is not a good team and the Big 10 has been an absolute joke this season.
Michigan and Ohio State are good teams and every other Big 10 team is painful to watch. If you want to take shots on Michigan players to have big days, then that is fine. Blake Corum for multiple touchdowns, Edwards for an anytime touchdown, or Wilson to have 50+ receiving yards are all fine shots to take.
If you put any money on any Iowa player to do literally anything then you need to call the help number at the bottom of the DraftKings app.
Florida State (-2.5) vs Louisville
It is surreal to see our Cards getting a primetime matchup against a top 5 team to win the ACC. I know we are all upset about last week, but we do need to let this sink in and think of how surreal this is from this time a year ago.
Florida State opened as a 5.5-point favorite and that number has steadily declined all the way down to 2.5. Jordan Travis was the engine to this offense, and they have not found a way to get their team kick started since he got injured. Meanwhile, Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to rival Kentucky and the keys to that game will be the same for this game. If Louisville can not turn the ball over and eliminate the big plays on defense, then this game is a toss-up. Florida State is beatable, and I believe we get it done and come home champs.
Jack Plummer has quietly been getting more and more consistent as the season has gone on. He is not putting up massive numbers but he has topped 240 yards in each of his last three games and I expect him to throw the ball around 30 times this weekend.
Jawhar and Guerendo have been splitting carries in the backfield which limits either of their upsides. We know that Jawhar has been dealing with an injury so there is a chance that he takes back over the majority of the snaps, but I am not sure how much I want to invest on that gamble.
Chris Bell is another player who has been getting more and more involved in the passing game. I don’t expect him to have a huge game, but including his 40+ prop is a number that I would feel comfortable targeting.
I want nothing to do with the Florida State passing game as I expect them to rely heavily on their defense and Trey Benson. Benson got 19 carries against Florida, and I expect the same attack this week. He has topped 80 yards in three of his last four games and that is the number I would look for him to hit again this week.
Be on the lookout for the official championship week bets on Friday!
