College football has a number of intriguing games in week 11 that could yield a big-time payday to get us back on track.
For tracking purposes 1 unit will be equal to $100
Week 10 Recap
Season Starting Money: $1000
Week 10 Starting Money: $955
Last week we wanted to focus on two games, Alabama vs LSU and Washington vs USC. Once again, we nailed the two games that we should target for props, but we were on the wrong end of who did all the damage.
The running game explosion for Washington I believe was a bit of an anomaly, but we should note the complete game plan change that Alabama showed against LSU. The Alabama offense seemed to fully unleash Milroe to carry the team instead of forcing him into an RPO box that did not fit his style. I fully expect to see him as an important part of the run game going forward.
We are due for a good week, so let’s see if we can change our luck.
Week 11 Starting Money: $705
Week 11
We are going to change things up this week. There are plenty of props and games that jump out, but we are going isolate some of them as individual smaller bets and do one high odds and one small odds parlay.
Tennessee vs Missouri
Full disclosure, I may be missing key news in this game. Almost every single prop that is offered on Fanduel feels off. Maybe it is just a game that Vegas and I see differently, or maybe there is a piece of news that I don’t have.
Both of these teams have offenses that can put up points and both of these defenses have shown that they can give up points as well.
Joe Milton has elite arm strength and his ability to take the top of the defense really puts pressure on the back end of opposing defenses. He has thrown for over 225 yards in four of his last five games and you can get -160 odds on him to do that again.
Squirrel White and Jaylen Wright have odds that I simply do not understand for this game. White has become the big play receiver over the last five games and topped the 100-yard mark in two of those games (and missed another by 1 yard). For a receiver that has been getting more and more involved being able to get his 100+ yard game for +340 seems like a bargain. On the ground, Jaylen Wright has been dominating in the last five games. He has over 110 yards in four of those games and you can get his 100+ yard game +188.
On the Missouri side of the ball, they have made a concentrated effort recently to establish the run game and Cody Schrader has gotten 20+ carries in each of the last three games. He also managed to break the 100-yard mark against Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina in that span. For him to repeat that performance you can get +124 odds.
Squirrel White OVER 100 rec yards (+340)
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Jaylen Wright OVER 100 rush yards (+188)
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Cody Schrader OVER 100 rush yards (+124)
The O Teams
Oklahoma State vs. Central Florida
Oklahoma State is another team that seems to have good value across the board. Alan Bowman has topped 225 yards in five of his last six games and you can get that prop for a reasonable -210 tomorrow. His main target this season has been Brennan Presley and he has topped 60 yards in three of his last four games.
The real star of this team is Running Back Ollie Gordon, and he is an elite talent at this level. I do not like his yards odds but him scoring two or more touchdowns is -140 and he has checked that box in each of his last three games.
Alan Bowman OVER 225 pass yards (-210)
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Brennan Presley OVER 60 rec yards (-115)
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Olle Gordon 2+ TD (-140)
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
It is always scary to bet on teams playing Georgia but Ole Miss has two props that look nice. Tre Harris has become the primary target for Ole Miss and has topped the 100-yard mark in three of his last 5 games. For him to go for 100 tomorrow you can get +430 odds and if that is too much for you then you can get him at 60+ for -106.
Quinshon Judkins is another player for Ole Miss that seems to have good value for tomorrow. He has gone for 100+ yards in four of his last five games and you can get that prop at +158. If you are worried about him running against a great Georgia defense then you can knock those yards down to 70 for -210.
Tre Harris OVER 100 rec yards (+430)
Alt: 60+, 70+, 80+, 90+ rec yards
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Quinshon Judkins OVER 100 rush yards (+158)
Alt: 70+, 80+, 90+ rush yards
Oregon vs. USC
Oregon gets to play a USC defense that just made Washington’s Running Back look like an All-American and Oregon’s Bucky Irving is actually good. He has topped 125 yards in two of his last five games and you can bet him to hit that again for +220.
Troy Franklin is another player that is very consistent in this Ducks offense. He has gone for 79+ yards in five out of his last five games and I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue against this leaky USC defense.
Bucky Irving OVER 125 rush yards (+220)
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Troy Franklin OVER 79 rec yards
Everyone Else
Michigan vs. Penn State
From my perspective, Michigan is the best team in the country this year and I do not see Penn State being able to keep up with them on offense.
Betting Michigan is a risk because Penn State does have a great defense, but I still think there are props to target. JJ McCarthy has thrown for over 200 yards and Roman Wilson has 50+ receiving yards in seven of the nine games this year. Although it won’t be easy, you can get decent odds on them repeating that performance tomorrow.
JJ Mcarthy OVER 200 yards
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Roman Wilson OVER 50 rec yards
Arizona vs. Colorado
Arizona is another team that seems to have strange odds. Colorado’s defense is bad, and you can get plus odds on Noah Fifita throwing for 300+ yads and plus odds on Tetairoa McMillian having 80+ receiving yards. Both of them have achieved that mark in 3 of their last 5 games and Colorado is a great spot to do it again.
Two other Quarterbacks that have good odds are Jordan Travis and Carson Beck. Jordan has 250+ yards in four straight games and Beck has topped that number in every game this season. You can bet those props for -220 and -270.
Week 11 Betting Slip
Bet: JJ McCarthy 200+ and Roman Wilson 50+
Units Bet: .25
Odds: -108
Bet: Jordan Travis 250+, Carson Beck 250+, Brennan Presley 50+, Troy Franklin 70+, Tetairoa McMillian 60+, Squirrel White 50+, Quinshon Judkins 60+
Units Bet: .25
Odds: +1158
Bet: Squirrel White 100+
Units Bet: .2
Odds: +340
Bet: Jaylen Wright 100+
Units Bet: .2
Odds: +188
Bet: Bucky Irving 120+
Units Bet: .1
Odds: +220
Bet: Cody Schrader 100+
Units Bet: .2
Odds: +124
Bet: Joe Milton 225+, Carson Beck 250+, Alan Bowman 225+
Units Bet: .3
Odds: +400
Bet: Squirrel White 100+, Tre Harris 100+, Bucky Irving 100+
Units Bet: .1
Odds: +6492
Bet Milroe 200+, Milroe TD
Units Bet: .4
Odds: +400
