For Louisville basketball, the inevitable will ultimately prove to be the “unacceptable”

Louisville basketball squares off against its hated rival, Kentucky, on Saturday with only two wins under its belt in 13 attempts. Why the Kentucky game may ultimately be a breaking point for some Cardinals fans.

There is no denying that Louisville basketball, its supporters, boosters, and fans have been through the gauntlet in the last decade.

If you’ve followed the program, even at arm’s length, I don’t need to explain how troubling the last few years have been.

In November, Louisville fans were finally provided a sense of relief- A break, even- when the IARP levied mostly inconsequential punishments on the program.

New head coach Kenny Payne brought with him a new sense of optimism upon his hiring in March. Now, the Louisville basketball program was relinquished of the dark cloud of NCAA purgatory. UofL could not recruit on a level playing field with some of the best in the business. A prized coaching staff comprised of winners- national champions, NBA stars, and men who learned under coaching legends.

It was go time once again for Louisville basketball. A new era was upon us.

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Then the season began.

First, in exhibition season. With a loss to Division II Lenoir Rhyne and a narrow victory over Chaminade.

Then came the inexplicable. Home losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, and App State- Each in a more confusing manner than the last; All by one point.

Fans could forgive this, still. Even with an 0-3 start, we saw fight at the end of games and hope for a turnaround.

But then… Came Hawaii. Louisville basketball was the laughing stock of the Maui Invitational, losing by 26 to Arkansas, 32 to Texas Tech, and 19 to Cincinnati- Each loss coming in brutal fashion with the opponents calling off the dogs in the final 8-10 minutes of the game and Payne putting in walk-ons for the remainder of the blowout.

Louisville ventured back home only to take another 25-point walloping against Maryland and a 27-point loss against Miami before losing by 22 to a 1-win Florida State squad.

A shocking 10-point victory over Western Kentucky as 7.5-point underdogs finally stopped the bleeding and a close victory over winless Florida A&M game us the smallest glimmer of hope.

But then, the same issues that befell the Cardinals before the two-game winning steak reared their ugly heads once again. This time in losses to lowly Lipscomb and by 12 points to a middle-of-the-road NC State team.

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Putting this start into perspective

And that’s where we stand today. Louisville, one of the great powers in college basketball, is 2-11 during the first season of the Kenny Payne Era with a tough conference schedule still ahead.

The Cardinals sit at 252nd in the KenPom rankings. The NCAA NET rankings have Louisville at 344th… Out of 363 NCAA DI teams. The Cards’ lone wins are both Quadrant 4 victories and they hold 5 Quadrant 4 losses.

Last year- Widely considered to be Louisville’s worst season since World War II- saw the Cardinals finish 130th in the NET rankings with a 7-1 record against Quadrant 4 teams.

In 2021, Louisville finished 56th in the NET and 2-0 against Q4 teams. In 2020, the Cards finished 8th.

Nearing it’s final non-conference game of the season, Louisville has gone from the worst season in program history to the worst season in ACC basketball history. Louisville basketball became the first team in ACC history to start a season 0-9.

The manner in which Louisville is losing only serves to make the way this season is going more confounding.

Louisville’s -12 scoring margin ranks it 340th in the country- Right between McNeese and Delaware State.

This isn’t just a historically bad start for Louisville basketball- It’s flat-out bad for any team at any level of DI basketball.

And for a program that ranked top 5 in attendance for 3 decades, that boasts the largest- and easily the nicest- facilities in the country, that was the most profitable program in the nation for over a decade. For a team less than 10 years removed from its last national title; One that was proudly led by two Hall of Fame, legendary head coaches for four decades… Well, it is simply unacceptable.

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A Team Worse Than Bad

For weeks now, I have sat and listened to excuses made for the Louisville basketball program.

Reasons why the standard is different right now. Explanations about how this came to be.

I am among the most lenient of fans. I will cheer my ass off and remain optimistic that something clicks and this team can turn things around.

I want to put all my faith in Payne and this coaching staff.

But, here’s the reality: This team is not bad. It is atrocious. It is embarrassing. It is unacceptable.

I hear you on the recruiting front. Louisville had no idea what would come of this season with the IARP the last final lifeline before potential postseason bans- Or worse.

I hear you that the cupboard was left bare. That the roster assembled by the previous staff is part of what got Louisville basketball into this mess in the first place.

I hear you when you say that the culture was toxic when Payne arrived. That scandal after scandal over the last two decades eroded away at the foundation that supported one of the proudest programs in the country.

Trust me. I, of all people, get that. I write about it game after game, year after year. I attend every game. I cheer my ass off, even this year, knowing my team is probably going to get its ass beat by some directional school. I record a podcast after every game, trying to find the words to explain what we are watching. How it can get better. Searching for optimism. I talked into the wee hours of the morning after Lipscomb, Bellarmine, Lenoir Rhyne, DePaul, Furman…

I understand that there are reasons why Louisville basketball isn’t playing near its usual standard. And I believe any rational fan can understand that.

However, the product that we see on the floor is so far removed from even being competent, you absolutely have your head in the sand if you haven’t at least thought that, perhaps, Louisville made the wrong decision when it hired Payne earlier this year.

Look at the teams Louisville is surrounded by in the NET rankings: Alabama State, IUPUI, Alcorn, Mississippi Valley State- I could have just made those teams up and you would have gone along with it. Those are teams that Louisville basketball pays to come to the KFC Yum! Center and lose to them by 50. Those are the programs that Louisville helps keep the lights on in order to play a de facto practice game. Those are teams that, in a normal year, the coaching hot seat might warm just a bit if the Cardinals even let the opponent keep it close.

Yet, here we are. Louisville basketball is the laughingstock of college basketball. I would say it’s humiliating but are past humiliating. It’s simply not acceptable.

You can lose and at least lose with dignity. Louisville hasn’t done that.

You can lose and at least confidently say your team gave 100 percent effort. Can you say that is the case for this team?

You can lose but at least try new things. New lineups and rotations. New plays, and new strategies both on and off the floor, as a team and individually.

Louisville basketball has rarely done any of that this season.

And there is nothing to look at in the future that makes this feel any better.

Payne and his staff were brought in because of their recruiting prowess, ability to build relationships, and reputation as excellent player development coaches.

The 2023 recruiting cycle is wrapping up and Louisville has two commitments- Both fine players in their own right, but nothing outside of what the former coaching staff was bringing in, In fact, one player was already a Louisville commit when Payne arrived.

The transfer portal in the offseason was an unmitigated disaster. Louisville swung and missed on every guard it tried to land and then replaced a mediocre backcourt with three walk-on caliber players.

The portal in 2023 is quite literally the program’s only hope. Land a handful of game-changing playmakers or find yourself back in the exact same situation once again.

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The Day of Reckoning

Still, there is a faction of the Louisville basketball fanbase that is sticking to its guns. That truly believes that you aren’t a true fan if you have criticisms of the program amid its worst season ever.

But, if there is one thing that I know this group simply will not accept, it’s losing to Kentucky.

Rick Pitino is one of the greatest coaches of all time. Yet, his inability to close out games against the Wildcats was a bugaboo that fans were none too thrilled about.

Chris Mack won in his final chance against Kentucky, but not before fans nearly lost their minds during back-to-back losses in his first two seasons.

This year, we all need to brace ourselves for the inevitable: Louisville will likely lose to Kentucky- And by a lot.

According to KenPom, Kentucky is the best team not named Arkansas that Louisville will play to date, and they are the second-best team that the Cards will play for the remainder of the year.

Pomeroy has Louisville losing by nearly 30 to the Wildcats on New Year’s Eve and based on the recent success of the two teams, the Wildcats may be able to name their score.

This is a rivalry game. Records go out the window, yada, yada. There is always a chance that Louisville beats Kentucky.

But, the reality is that if the best version of this Louisville basketball team and the worst version of the Kentucky team show up, it’s likely that the Cats still pull out the victory.

If that happens- especially if by a wide margin- it’s my belief that reality will set in for a lot for UofL fans.

To this point, the mood of the fans has been one of apathy and indifference.

You can look away when Louisville is playing NC State at 6 PM the Thursday before Christmas Eve. That luxury is not as affordable when your friends, family, and co-workers are constant reminders of your team’s failure.

The Louisville-Kentucky rivalry is different. We live among each other. We often love and have great respect for supporters of the team up the road.

So, when it matters most, if Louisville goes out and lays yet another egg, I believe the day of reckoning will come. An actual annoyance of the entire fanbase. A potential warming of the Kenny Payne hot seat.

You can lose to Lipscomb. We can forgive that. But we’ll be damned if Carl from accounting is lurking near our cubicle in that ugly ass blue tie on Monday morning.

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Given the way the last few years have gone, we were already dead inside anyways. What’s another losing season?

Louisville basketball and Kenny Payne were going to survive regardless of how awful the record.

But it’s the way Louisville is losing that is the problem. On Saturday, I think the narrative may become who they are losing to in that fashion.

Don’t get it twisted. I am going to be glued to my TV, cheering like Louisville basketball is the No. 1 ranked team in the country. I desperately hope Payne succeeds here. I’d kill to see this program back where it’s supposed to be.

But the reality is that, at some point, enough will be enough. Fans are eventually going to reach their breaking point.

If Louisville basketball is a no-show on Saturday, the shit will only have just begun to hit the fan.