Louisville football hosts Central Florida for the most important game of the Satterfield era. Everything you need to know about the Knights and how the Cards match up.
There have certainly been less important games in Louisville football history.
Although Central Florida and new head coach Gus Malzahn travel to Louisville just outside the top 25. the match-up feels like the most important of the Scott Satterfield era.
Louisville finished 8-5 in year one under Satterfield, but the Cards are only 5-8 in games since. That includes blowout losses to the likes of Mississippi, Pitt, and Georgia Tech. Louisville is a program that appears headed in the wrong direction. From less than desirable recruiting efforts to coaching turnover to Satt’s late-season flirtation in 2020. Louisville has felt like a program lacking an identity and needing positive momentum for over a year now.
A quick sweep over the second-hand ticket market yields over 10,000 tickets still available for Friday’s match-up. Fans are tired and want to see a winning product while the first two games of the season showed no indication of promise on the horizon.
Now, Louisville faces a Knights squad that has all the tools needed to route the Cards if they bring the same execution as the previous two games.
Let’s preview Louisville football and Central Florida.
First down: Need to know
Who: Central Florida (2-0) vs. Louisville (1-1)
Where: Cardinal Stadium | Louisville, KY
When: Friday, September 17 @ 7:00 PM
TV: ESPN
Last meeting: 2013 | Louisville 35, Central Florida 38
Uniform check:
Spread Check: UCF -7 | Over/ Under: 67.5
Second down: What to watch for
What to expect from UCF
Lots and lots of passing
Louisville has shown weakness when it comes to handling the quick passing game as evident in their opener against Ole Miss and the first half of Saturday’s matchup with EKU. Although the numbers don’t really stand out from QB Parker McKinney, he did have far more success early in the game than expected getting the ball to his playmakers. We continued to see 10-12 yards of space being left by Louisville’s secondary and no consistent pass rush, which allowed for McKinney to get going.
The way I see it, UCF is essentially a mini-Ole Miss. Behind star QB Dillon Gabriel, Central Florida currently holds the 10th best passing offense in the country and the 19th most pass attempts. . In two games, Gabriel’s attempted 73 passes connecting on 48 of them for 630 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just two INTs. In both performances, Gabriel has been special and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. His combination of arm strength, pocket awareness, running ability, and overall passing talent make him one of the most dangerous passers in the country.
As much as Malzahn loves to run the football, I expect to see a ton of passing from Gabriel. If the game is close I expect somewhere between 30-40 attempts.
A tough run defense
You wouldn’t know it by the play calling, but Louisville football has struggled to run the football. Despite those struggles, which Scott Satterfield has deemed as “execution based,” the Cards haven’t moved away from its bread and butter. UCF comes in with one of the top run defenses in all of college football, allowing just 22 yards rushing per game.
The Cards’ rushing attack has been mediocre, at best, but that likely won’t stop Satt from running the football. Even with all of Card Nation hollering for a more diverse playbook, Satterfield has shown the tendency to stick to what he knows. Will going up against one of the stingiest defenses change things? That is the biggest unanswered question heading into week 3.
Guz Malzahn knows this will be a challenge for UCF, as he highlighted Louisville’s ability to get to the boundary in their stretch/zone runs. Thankfully for Louisville, that’s something their defense has yet to see this season (more on that coming up). Louisville only had one day of “heavy” practice, so I’m not sure how much will really change. But the hope is that throwing something different at UCF will cause mass confusion for their defense.
The offensive line will have to play a near-perfect game, while Jalen Mitchell, as well as Hassan Hall & Trevion Cooley, will have to come prepared for a physical game that centers on execution. If not, this game has the potential to get ugly.
What to expect from Louisville
A chance to protect better
It’s simple; if the offensive line isn’t able to raise their level of play the offense isn’t going to amount to much of anything. Early in the game on Saturday against EKU, Malik Cunningham was under fire. This wasn’t some mammoth defensive line or even an all-out blitz type of deal. Rather, it was a rush 3, drop 8 scheme that somehow was too tough for the offensive line to pick up (at least early).
If the best *college* offensive line that Jack Bicknell has ever coached doesn’t start executing, things are going to get bad.
It starts by making two immediate moves.
- Moving Adonis Boone out of the starting lineup and replacing him with Bryan Hudson
- Starting Michael Gonzalez on either the left or ride side
To be frank, Louisville’s right side of the line was a huge problem against EKU. Boone and Renato Brown were turnstiles against an undersized defensive line. UCF doesn’t have a d-line that’s going to set the world on fire, but they do have some big, strong, athletic guys who will dominate Louisville if given the chance.
However, UCF comes into town with a defense that has yet to produce a sack this season. Despite having multiple talented players in their front seven who are capable of getting after the QB, they simply haven’t been able to.
Considering that there will be a lot of one-on-one, man coverage scenarios on Friday night, Cunningham will have a chance to really get the offense going. I expect Louisville to test Central Florida with the run game and then do everything in their power to bring the passing game along much more prolifically than they did against Ole MIss. Again, it all starts with protection.
More quick passing
Satterfield is making things easy for the fans when it comes to criticism over playcalling. As Matthew McGavic and countless others have pointed out, the run calls and predictability of Louisville’s offense have continued to be a problem in 2021. Satterfield talked a lot about that this week (more to come) and pointed out that the split hasn’t been as far off as people make it out to be.
Regardless, If Louisville is going to have any chance of winning this game it’s the passing game that will likely do it for them. Central Florida has allowed a ton of yards through the air, and if they can’t slow down Louisville we could see the best passing performance yet.
Louisville’s receivers will have to win one-on-one battles in order for the Cards to win, as UCF will likely be in man coverage all night. This is where the speed & versatility of their receivers, backs, and tight ends will be crucial. If Louisville wins their matchups, this game is competitive and they have a chance to win. If not, no shot, and it could get ugly.
Intoxicated and potentially mad fans
As someone who attended the game Saturday against EKU, I can tell you it was bad as everyone said. While I was feeling good, I spent the majority of the game waiting for beer that was overpriced from vendors that didn’t want to be there, working with equipment that didn’t work. Overall the experience was awful and the product on the field wasn’t any better.
Vince Tyra has done a hell of a job this week stepping up and accepting responsibility and leading the way for change. More employees, more locations to order concessions, quicker access, and of course, 50% beer in the first half. All of that will be great, but if the team doesn’t play better things could get ugly, FAST.
What happens when you mix angry friends + bad football + 50% off beer? You get Louisville Twitter coming to life. I’m thinking this game will be competitive, but if it’s not, the support & goodwill remaining with the fan base could evaporate for good.
Third down: What the coaches had to say
Satterfield on Central Florida: We have another short week, and we are playing an outstanding team in Central Florida. They have had two big wins, they played well throughout the whole game last week, played really well in the second half of the Boise State game. They pretty much shut Boise down in the second half defensively and then got some things going offensively. They are a fast-tempo offense with a veteran quarterback that makes a lot of plays. They have a strong running game and passing game, so they certainly put pressure on defenses, and I think defensively they are playing better this year.
Satterfield on the UCF defense: The defense is based out of a four-down technique, very aggressive defensive plan, man on the back end, a lot of man-free coverage. Their defensive line is impressive, two transfers there upfront that are really good players. The best player upfront is probably number 22, Kalia Davis. He is about 6-2, 310 and is very quick off the ball. We know it will be a big challenge for us and another short week for us, our guys have to get fresh and ready to go for this game.
Satterfield on what Louisville learned vs. UCF: They [Ole Miss] did not go as fast as they probably could have, there were a lot of times in the Ole Miss game, where they would look back toward the sideline, but as you look at Central Florida, they move really fast and are not worried about trying to get the best play like some teams, they run fast plays and hope to catch the defense not lined up. Hopefully, we learned some things to do good and correct for the Ole Miss game.
Satterfield on offensive balance: I went back and look on second and five, plus, we’re 60 percent run and 40 percent pass. As you look on first down, we’re about 50% on pass and run, we try to go back and look and see what we’re doing all these downs and down to distances and then trying to make it look balanced to the opposing team.
Defensively, their LB CJ Avery, I’m familiar with him. He’s been their leading tackler the last two years, he really sets the tone for them.
Guz Malzahn on the challenge of playing Louisville: What really stands out to me is their one of the better teams n the country in time of possession, they were last year, they’re in the top 20 this year. That’s a sign of being able to run the ball and play solid defense.
Malzahn On improving after Bethune-Cookman: Overall as a team, definitely think we did. We didn’t have any penalties offensively, did not turn the ball over. Had a lot of different people handle the ball defensively. Held the group to 14 points, played a lot of different people. Lot of things we can really take and will help us moving forward this next week.
Malzahn on Louisville’s running game: It’s going to be a challenge. They run a lot of stretch and a lot of outside zone, we have not seen a lot of that it’ll be a challenge. They are really good at running the football on the edge with that, their nakeds and everything that comes with that. Our run defense has been really good so far. The run fits have been good, upfront we’ve really won one-on-one battles, some two-on-one battles. We’ll definitely need to do that this weekend.
Malzahn on Cole Schneider playing center: Matt (Lee) is day-to-day. He wants to play, there’s no doubt about that. He’s doing everything he can to get ready to do that. We’re hopeful but we’re not ready to say that.
editor’s note: Cole Schneider has played guard for UCF this season but slid over to center after Lee was injured against Bethune-Cookman.
Fourth down: Louisville wins if…
They pass, then run
There will be a battle within the battle on Friday night as Satterfield does what he can to test the stout UCF run defense. Just like Michael Scott, if you tell Satt what he can’t’/shouldn’t do, he’s probably going to still do it. I expect Satterfield to continue to use the run as his driving force but do so in a different manner. As Malzahn said, the Knights have seen little to no stretch/outside zone this season. Sure the defense has the speed & athletes to make things challenging (like others have done) but on a short week, it may come with a price.
The lack of passing on 2nd & long plays has been a concern, but a lot of that has to do with what happens on first down. I expect to see more passing on those downs against UCF than we have yet against Ole Miss or EKU.
Why?
UCF is vulnerable. They rank 99th nationally in passing yards allowed, after giving up 230+ yards to Bethune Cookman and 260+ to Boise State. Despite the big numbers they sit 2-0 thanks to their sturdy run defense and incredible offense.
Running the football and holding the TOP isn’t going to guarantee a win. What will is points. The offensive line will have to have their best game & Cunningham will have to rely on his guys to win one-on-one battles outside. That’s the only way winning is possible. Big plays. Short plays. Screens. Go’s. All of it will be important come Friday.
Win the 3rd down battle
Bethune-Cookman went 7 of 15 on third down against Central Florida last weekend, which is something you don’t normally see from an FCS squad. Call it a fluke or call it a weakness, regardless, Louisville has to win this battle.
On the season, Louisville has been pretty bad with converting offensively on third down, going 10-29 (good enough for 94th nationally). Part of that is Louisville finding itself in long-yardage situations continuously. The other part is bad playcalling and poor execution. UCF on the other hand has been one of the best in the country on third downs, going 16-20 offensively.
For the Louisville defense, it’s been a completely different story. Finding themselves in 21 total third downs, the Cards have allowed just SIX first downs. For UCF they’ve struggled much more defensively, allowing 11 conversions on 29 attempts overall. Bethune Cookman made up seven of those conversions while Boise State only converted four of their 14 attempts.
If Louisville’s not careful defensively, they won’t get the opportunity to get to third down. Malzahn and company will 100% look to dial up big plays on first and second down, following in the game plan of Ole MIss. If Louisville can slow them down and actually get to third down, well, then it’s a completely different ball game. The numbers show UofL can get off the field, but the question remains can teams avoid ever getting there?
Extra point: Predictions
Jacob L: 31-20, UCF
Megan Brewer: 30-27, Louisville
Ethan Sprowles: 38-17, UCF
Alan Thomas: 38-34, Louisville
Matt McGavic: 31-17, UCF
Overtime: Pres’ Prognostications
With Presley Meyer
Greetings, friends.
Nothing has made sense about Louisville football during the Scott Satterfield era. From a shocking opening season success to a fall from grace in year two. At the very least, fans should have hoped that Louisville would have formed an identity under Satt.
The one glimmer of hope I have taken from the underwhelming start to the season is that maybe Satterfield is starting to establish an offensive identity at UofL come hell or high water. We have documented how Louisville is running the ball an inexplicable amount of times in downs and distances that make no sense.
Unless there is an explanation. Unless Louisville, one way or another, is attempting to establish itself as a run-first football team.
One school of thought says that Satt should play to his team’s strengths and get the ball to speedy receivers. The other, however, is that Louisville is establishing its identity as a dominant running team regardless of growing pains.
Perhaps Central Florida is the game where Louisville finally gets some push up front, the Cards ground and pound the air out of the ball, and the offensive line and running scheme finally begins to mesh. UCF has faced two teams thus far that detest running the ball. I think Louisville is going to test the Knights’ ability to clog holes in the ground game.
If Louisville can establish the ground game, I believe there is room for unlimited possibilities on offense. We have seen the group of speedy wideouts have plenty of ability to create in space but forget what Jacob said, if Louisville can get the running game going, UCF’s vulnerable secondary is ripe for the picking.
Louisville will have its most raucous crowd since Notre Dame in 2019. I think the Cards leverage home-field advantage and control the ball just well enough to spring the upset and finally establish that offensive identity.
28-27, Louisville
Also Read: Why Major Concerns Remain After EKU Win
