Louisville football is back and we’re all ready to get hurt have fun again.
It will have been exactly 268 days (8 months and 25 days) since the Louisville football program last took the field when they finally kick things off against Ole Miss on September 6th. But hey, who’s counting?
It feels like it’s been one of the longest offseasons of my lifetime (am I crazy?) filled with good & bad headlines. Finally, after much anticipation, the Cards will return to the field in Primetime looking for what could be Scott Satterfield’s biggest win yet at Louisville.
Do you know how excited I am right now? It’s been over 8 months since I last wrote a game preview.
Ole Miss, led by the always color Lane Kiffin, will be looking to make a statement about their standing in 2021. In their way will be a Louisville football team desperately trying to get back to where they were back in 2019.
In a season with a lot of unique match-ups for Louisville, Ole Miss provides a solid litmus test in week one.
No more hypotheticals. No more talk. It’s time to play football.
First down: Need to know
Who: Louisville vs. Ole Miss | Chick-Fil-A Kick-Off Game
Where: Mercedez Benz Stadium | Atlanta, Georgia
When: September 6, 2021, at 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN; Rece Davis, Kirk Herbstreit, and Molly McGrath will be on the call.
Last meeting: No previous matchups
Uniform check:
Second down: What to Watch For
What to expect from Ole Miss
Tons of action through the air
Look for Lane Kiffin to do what Lane Kiffin led teams do bests; toss the pigskin around. The Rebels have one of the nation’s top quarterbacks and potential Heisman Dark Horse in Matt Corrall who has the ability to make incredible plays both in the pocket and out. Louisville’s corners and revamped secondary will be tested early and often, despite Kiffin losing some of his top talents from a year ago. Watch for Corrall to test Kei’Trel Clark, Chandler Jones, and Greedy Vance with guys like Braylon Sanders and Jonathan Mingo, who are experienced players.
The more immediate threat may be RB/WR Jerrion Early, who will play in the backfield and in the slot. The staff at Ole Miss has spent all season praising his ability and versatility with Kiffin himself mentioning it’s unlikely he’ll play exclusively at RB. Ole Miss will utilize every nook and cranny on the field with their speed and for Louisville to have success it’ll start with always having eyes (and hands) on Ealy. They’ll also do so with a ton of pace which is something Louisville has struggled with over the years. I expect a ton of short screens and designed pop passes to get Ealy in space. For Louisville, it’ll be all about slowing that down and swarming to the ball. If they can’t Corrall will be able to slowly pick apart the rest of the defense. Look for Corrall to throw the football 28-35 times.
A defense that is better… But, by how much?
The Ole Miss defense was absolutely atrocious in 2020 and was one of the biggest reasons Ole Miss didn’t have a better record. When your offense scores upwards of 40 points per game and puts up 555 total yards of offense it makes things a little less tricky when your defense finishes 117th in scoring and 126th in total defense. Yeah, they were bad. Like Louisville 2017 bad.
With the offense scoring on just about every possession they didn’t turn the football over on, the defense just had to hold. They never could quite figure it out (that’s putting it lightly) and it’s a reason they have skepticism surrounding them in 2021. By all accounts, it appears they will be better this year, but the question remains how much better and how soon?
If Ole Miss’ defense is even slightly improved, proving capable of getting off the field, it’s going to put even more pressure on Louisville’s defense. Louisville will likely use a ground and pound type offensive strategy as they try and eat the clock and make Ole Miss’ offense sweat. Ole Miss’ strength should be in their defensive tackles with KD Hill and Hal Northern, both 300+ pound guys, which should help in stopping the run. The back end of the secondary will be a strength with AJ Finley, Otis Reese, and others returning, but are they improved enough to slow down Louisville’s speed? These are the questions that will determine the final outcome of the matchup.
What to expect from Louisville football
Long, sustained drives
Do you know how you slow down an offense that literally can score in the blink of an eye? Don’t let them see the field. On Monday night against Ole Miss, the number one offensive priority for Louisville football will be controlling the pace of play. Early in Scott Satterfield’s tenure, we saw a good mix of long drives + fast scoring plays. Last season those long drives didn’t happen nearly as much because they weren’t able to control the ground. How do you establish long drives?
Start with no negative plays, no turnovers, a ton of yards after contact, and being sure you’re in a spot to convert on third down. Louisville didn’t do those things last year but if they can this year, especially against Ole Miss, they should be able to achieve the style of play Satt wants.
Spreading the ball around
Louisville’s biggest strength in the wide receiver room is without question its depth and versatility. Gone are the days of Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick receiving the majority of the targets. Albeit inexperienced, the depth and playmaking available to Gunter Brewer on Monday night is flat-out stupid. From guys like Tyler Harrell to Braden smith to Justin Marshall to transfer/converted WR Shai Werts to hometown heroes Jordan Watkins & Marshon Ford. I could even keep going.
There is no shortage of options and in order to test the improvement of the defense of Ole Miss, I expect all of those guys to be involved. I don’t expect to see a 150+ receiving output from anyone but more so a bunch of 50, 60, 70, and 80-yard games instead.
More speed defensively
The Louisville football defense has been fast the last two years. But in 2021 I expect that to go to another level. All four linebackers from Louisville can absolutely book it, including Monty Montgomery who may be the fastest linebacker in the ACC (I’m dead serious). Expect to see a ton of guys around the football each play, especially when it comes to trying to prevent the big plays on screens and other short routes. Like I predicted on From The Pink Seats Podcast, I believe we’ll hear the linebackers’ speed praised on Monday night. That’s not it, though. Louisville has speed everywhere else as well. If they can play fast without losing discipline they’ll be in a position to win.
Third down: What the coaches had to say
Scott Satterfield:
On Ole Miss & Lane Kiffin: They are known for their offense and Lane Kiffin really over his whole career is known for being able to move to football. He has always been able to move the football, especially over the last few years at FAU, being able to move the ball well the way he did there with that fast-paced spread them out and get the ball all over the field. That is what Ole Miss does well, they make you defend the whole field; east, west, north, and south. They do a good job with that; they utilize their tempo to make the defenses unaware of what’s going on because it’s happening so fast.
On Matt Corral: He is an outstanding quarterback because you have to make decisions very quickly in his offense, where the ball is going because they have several plays call within one, and he can do that, he can make all the throws, he can throw a tight window, and he throws a great deep ball, in addition to being very accurate. On top of all that he can run, when we first started studying him in the offseason, I was hoping he couldn’t run, but he can. He is one of the better quarterbacks in the country and it’s why it’s been mentioned up for Heisman recognition because he makes it all go.
On Ole Miss’ defense: The other thing is the media has talked about their defense and how they are giving up a lot of points. That is all that those players have been hearing all offseason as well, so I know that they will be ready and make improvements there. They added some more talent to that defense, and they got a lot of guys back you know so they will be a better unit for that. It is a great challenge and opportunity for us to go play an SEC team and we are looking forward to that.
On dealing with Ole Miss offensive pace: You watch them last year against Alabama, and we know how talented Alabama is, and their defensive line is walking around because they’re tired because they couldn’t substitute any guys. They’re going so fast, you can’t get anybody in because you’ll get a penalty, because they’re going to snap the ball. We have to do a good job of when we can substitute and when we can’t. If they sub a guy, then we need to be able to run a guy on to get some guys some breaks. That’s one of the advantages of going fast as an offense, that they’re able to do that. That is a concern as well, being able to get guys in and out of the game. We have to be very good at getting guys in the game when they sub so we have an opportunity.
Lane Kiffin:
On playing Louisville: This is a really good opportunity for us to play on the national stage, being the only game going on at that time. Very challenging with an offense that can do both. I think in the last two years there are only four or five teams that average over 200 yards per game on the ground and throwing they’re one of them. They present a challenge there with a very good quarterback that can make a lot of plays with his arm and feet and a very veteran offensive line. On the other side, they’re multiple in what they do, could be protection issues, trying to figure out where everybody is.
On Malik Cunningham: They [Louisville] throw the ball really well and then takes off and runs. Very challenging to contain him so there’s a lot of challenges with that. In a perfect world, you want unathletic quarterbacks to play against, so when you cover people, they can’t bring another dimension.
On the defense: I think that we do have some young players that have a spring under their belt now. We have some transfers that either barely played or didn’t play at all that would have played a year ago. I think we look better physically, even the same guys look better physically after a whole year in our weight program.
Bryan Brown (Co-DC):
On preparing for Matt Corral & the fast-paced offense of Ole Miss: They have one of the best quarterbacks that we’ll face all season long in Matt Corral. We’re trying to simulate that tempo, and I don’t think we’ll be able to simulate how fast those guys go, because they go really, really fast. We’re just trying to condition our guys to get ready for the next play immediately. No celebrating, trying to make sure that they get the call, get lined up, and just get ready to play. Because when Ole Miss gets you in trouble, it’s when you’re not ready to play. You’re trying to make certain checks and things of that nature, our guys just gotta line up and play, and that’s what we got to get ready to practice for the rest of the week before the game.
On defensive experience: I think when you have a veteran group like that group, even with the safety spot-both safeties have not played football for us, but you have one safety that’s played in our system. He’s older, he’s been with us since the spring, you have Cole, who’s played a lot of football. I talked to Coach Satterfield earlier today during practice, I said, “man it’s like he’s been in our defense for a long time,” because he knows what to expect. He knows the checks, and he’s able to go out and play fast. That allows our guys to kind of be a little bit more calm, cool, and collected a little bit, and be able to go out and execute the defense.
On what the secondary has to do in the passing game: Stay your butt on top, because he can throw it deep, He does a tremendous job with the deep ball, does a tremendous job on the underneath throws. The one thing I think he does a tremendous job of is he does a great job on looking the DB’s off. He’s so quick to come back to his second or third read, that it’s like, “oh my god, you guys got to make sure you’re not out of position with your eyes.” He does a great job with that, but he’s just a really good quarterback that knows where to go with the football.
Fourth down: Your team wins if…
Louisville wins if…
Time of possession goes its way
If Louisville football is able to establish its running game against a bigger, stronger SEC defensive line, they should be able to control the time of possession. In order to keep the defense fresh and Ole Miss’ dangerous offense off the field, long drives have to be the goal. There’s still the potential to take deep strikes through the air, or even to burst big plays on the ground.
As Satterfield said Monday, “there are times where the defense has been out there for a while and they need to catch a break, so we need to slow it down a little bit offensively to give those guys an opportunity to catch their breath.” I trust that the Louisville football defense will come ready to play but the best way to be sure the Ole Miss offense doesn’t score is by keeping them off the field. Using the stable of backs, depth at receiver, and improvement up front, making sure Lane Kiffin stays antsy will be crucial
Matt Corral feels pressure
“All night long….”
The best way to force a good/great quarterback into bad plays is by putting constant pressure on him. That will without question be the top defensive priority on Monday night for Bryan Brown. If Louisville football is able to hit Corral or make him anticipate a hit, you’ll likely see turnovers. He was prone to those last season, throwing 11 interceptions (including 5 in one game). But if he has time, it’s over. Corral will pick apart the defense if he’s able to get a clean pocket or roll out without much resistance.
It values field position
Scott Satterfield spent a good chunk of time in his local and national media availability talking about special teams. Last year the Cards were flat out poo-poo when it came to the battle for field position. Whether it was kicking the ball off, returning kickoffs, punting, or returning punts, all was a constant struggle. This year Louisville can count on the return of a healthy Hassan Hall as well budding star kicker James Turner.
They’ll also welcome 25-year-old Australian freshman Mark Vassett to the lineup. Satt has raved about his punter’s ability to pin the ball deep and force opposing teams into bad field position. Louisville football will need every yard it can get, both offensively and defensively. If the special teams’ units are able to limit big returns and do what they can to pin Ole Miss deep, it’ll go a long way in giving the Cards the upper hand.
The Rebels overlook the Cards
If this game is even remotely close to the Florida game in 2013 (which I know it was a bowl game), Louisville should win. What I mean is if Lane Kiffin and his squad are watching the tape of Louisville from last year and thinking this is an “easy w,” they’ll be in for a real treat. Louisville football is NOT the same team from 2020. The defense will be much improved. The turnovers should be cut down. The leadership and accountability will be better. Not to mention the veteran leadership, newcomers, and all the other 5000 things we’ve talked about this offseason. If the Rebels come in sleepwalking, Louisville should be able to take advantage. I believe the Cards are ready to make a statement.
Ole Miss wins if….
Louisville struggles with tackling in open space
Knowing the type of defense Bryan Brown faces and the exotic blitz packages he likes to bring, I expect Kiffin to counter with short passes. Jerrion Ealy is the guy who people are pointing at as being the best player on Ole Miss’ offense outside of Corral, and that’s for good reason. Whether it was running the ball or catching it out of the backfield (or at receiver) Ealy made plays with the ball in his hands. Ole Miss will move fast and do everything they can to force the Cards’ best tacklers to do just that. If Louisville can’t slow down Ealy, or the other Rebel weapons, then it’ll be a long night. If they can use their speed and athleticism to their advantage, while being disciplined, that should put them in a spot to be competitive up until the end.
Malik Cunningham can’t buy time
Louisville’s offensive line was less than average last season when it came to preventing pressure. Giving up 30 sacks and countless other pressures, Cunningham had to run for his life or force the action himself through the air. We’ve heard for weeks about this being the best offensive line the Cards have had in the Satterfield era and they’ll get the chance to prove that. As I said on the podcast this week, we’ll know quickly how ready the offensive line is going against an SEC defensive line. Caleb Chandler, Cole Bentley, and Renato Brown are going to set the tone in this one.
Extra point: Predictions
Jacob L.: 41-38, Ole Miss
Presley Meyer: 38-28 Ole Miss
Nick Conner: 42-27 Ole Miss
Spencer Brown: 45-31 Ole Miss
Vincent Lococo: 35-21 Louisville
Next: 25 Realistic Predictions for Louisville football in 2021
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