Just win, Cards.
Who: Louisville (7-4, 5-3) at Kentucky (4-8, 1-7)
When: Saturday, November 30th at Noon
Where: Kroger Field | Lexington, KY
How to Watch: SEC Network
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: UofL is 15-20 all-time
Spread Check: Louisville -4.0
Thread Check:
Weather Check:
32 and partly cloudy at kick. Real feel of 24. Winds 10 mph.
Preview:
How Louisville Wins
Louisville is the better team. It was a season ago, and the gap has widened from a season ago.
The Cards are one of the most explosive teams in the country on offense. The Cats have scored 10 offensive touchdowns in 8 conference games.
However, Kentucky does a really solid job of mucking things up. This team loves to slow things down, limit opponent possessions, turn teams over, and make it an ugly, low-scoring affair.
For Louisville football, this is going to come down to the turnover battle.
Last season, Louisville outgained the Cats by a wide margin, but three costly turnovers and a special teams TD gave UK life.
Kentucky’s lone quality win this season was against a high-scoring Mississippi offense. The Cats grabbed an early lead and then owned time of possession.
Kentucky is going to use the same recipe on Saturday. Louisville must get an early lead and then play smart football. Holding on to the damn ball is paramount.
If there’s another area where Louisville needs to assert its will, it’s in the pass rush.
Kentucky starts a true freshman QB who did well to evade the rush in the second half against Texas.
Louisville will need to get to the quarterback early and often.
The Cards should be prepared for QB runs as well. It’s no secret that UofL has struggled to stop running QBs, and the Cats are likely to throw in a few wrinkles opportunistically.
Louisville should win this game. No excuses. The Cards must meet the moment and understand the magnitude of this game.
How Kentucky Wins
Kentucky freshman QB Cutter Boley will make his first career start on Saturday. He’s a hometown kid. He understands the magnitude of the moment, and he gives the UK offense some life.
There’s a history of young or lesser known QBs coming in and becoming legends in the rivalry game.
Teddy Bridgewater, Lamar Jackson, Kyle Bolin, Lynn Bowden… just to name a few.
Does Boley have the chops to come in and secure a victory for the Cats in his first start? Potentially.
He was a highly-rated QB out of Lexington Christian, and his mobility allows him to get outside the pocket and extend passing plays. Kentucky has the weapons to match the Cards if it can keep the QB upright. Dane Key and Barion Brown are electric receivers who have been grossly underutilized to this point in the season.
There’s a real sense of hope for Kentucky if it can string together some drives early and utilize those weapons.
Obviously, there’s also concern for Kentucky that Boley can’t meet the moment and poor decision making leads to a large early deficit.
Cats fans are certainly hopeful, however.
If they pulled the upset last year on the road, it’s certainly possible this season.
Predictions
College Football News: Louisville 26, Kentucky 20
Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle: Kentucky 2, Louisville 1
Tristan Pharis, A Sea of Blue: Louisville 24, Kentucky 17
James Story, Courier-Journal: Louisville 38, Kentucky 17
Jon Hale, Lexington Herald-Leader: Kentucky 27, Louisville 24
Jacob Lane, SOL: Louisville -3
Matt McGavic, From the Pink Seats: Louisville -3
Vince Lococo, From the Pink Seats: Louisville -3
Producer Keith, From the Pink Seats: Kentucky +3
Pres’ Picks
Guys, I just… I’m nervous.
If this was any other team than Kentucky, I’d be confident in a victory. However, because it *is* Kentucky and Mark Stoops on the other sideline, I’m sick over this one.
It’s been a long ass time since Louisville took down the Cats on the gridiron. Some losses have been heartbreaking. Others have been blowouts. But the one consistent thing is that Stoops just seems to get his guys up for this game.
Does that all change when Kentucky has no bowl game in its future? Honestly, I think it makes this even more interesting.
Kentucky is going to talk their shit. They are going to try to start stuff in pregame warmups. They will push things to the limit on the field. It’ll be a dog fight.
Stoops has been so adept at mucking things up in this rivalry, and especially his season.
He’s stuck to his guns. He has an arsenal of speedy receivers, 2 good running backs, good tight ends, but he’s been super vanilla all season in hopes of just dink and dunking his way to a bunch of close losses.
Kentucky kept the game to 13-12 in a loss against Georgia. It won 20-17 at Mississippi. The Cats held Tennessee to just a 28-18 win.
But that all goes back to Stoops’ desire to just grind things out, shorten the game, and keep it to a possession or two late in the game.
That dynamic may shift slightly with Boley under center. He looked calm and confident at Texas, and he pushed the ball downfield really well.
It might sound backward, but I think Louisville should be open to that dynamic. Let Kentucky take more risks and try to control the tempo of the game. If Louisville football can get out to an early lead and force Kentucky’s hand, that will likely play in UofL’s favor.
The last thing any Cards fan wants to see is a 6 or 7 possession game where every offensive play is so critical. Louisville needs to dictate the tempo and make Kentucky play into their style.
I want to see Isaac Brown get a lot of touches, but with an added emphasis on ball security. Brown was known for his lack of ball security coming out of high school. And while he’s shored that up quite a bit this season, UK is going to be holding him up and trying to strip the ball all game.
Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks feel built for this game. Brooks has played in the iron bowl twice, making the game-winning touchdown catch two years ago this weekend. Shough is just a steady presence who won’t be rattled by some shit talk or aggressive play from the UK defense.
Louisville will likely stick to its bread and butter here. Run Brown a lot and get the ball out to Brooks consistently. I’m also keen on a Mark Redman touchdown catch today.
Ultimately, it’s hard to pick the Cards after losing 5 straight. It feels cursed.
But I think Brohm understands the magnitude of the situation. And I think last year really stuck with this entire staff.
