Louisville football. Tony The Tiger. Win at all costs.
Who: Louisville football (8-4, 5-3) vs. Washington (6-6, 4-5)
When: Tuesday, December 31st at 2pm
Where: Sun Bowl Stadium | El Paso, TX
How to Watch: CBS
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: No previous matchups.
Spread Check: Louisville -1.0
Thread Check:
Weather check: 67 degrees and sunny at kick. Wind 7mph
PRE-GAME READING: WHY LOUISVILLE FANS SHOULD BE EXCITED ABOUT THE 2024 SUN BOWL
How Louisville football wins
Without stars Quincy Riley, Ashton Gillotte, Tyler Shough, and Ja’Corey Brooks, Jeff Brohm’s going to have his work cut out for him no matter who the opponent is. Despite
Run the ball and control the clock
This feels like the spot where Louisville wins or loses this game.
Washington has the second-worst p4 rush defense (Kentucky) that Louisville will face all season.
It gives up more long rushing plays than all but two Big Ten teams.
Louisville football specializes in reeling off long runs. Isaac Brown and Duke Watson have to be licking their chops heading into a CBS New Years Eve game against a bad rush defense team.
However, we don’t want to overuse Isaac Brown & Duke Watson – Get WR’s involved with Jet sweeps, pop passes, reverses.
Make Demond Williams feel you (pause)
Pressure, pressure, pressure. Washington QB Demond Williams has been sacked a ton this season, including 10 times against Oregon.
Louisville has shown the ability to get pressure on the QB, but that hasn’t always resulted in sacks or negative plays.
The entire left side of Washington’s offensive line is in the portal. This is a chance for Louisville players to take advantage up front.
Other Thoughts:
Learn from mistakes early in the season and keep Demond Williams contained in the pocket. Don’t let Washington beat you on QB runs.
Harrison Bailey has a massive arm. Get Bailey confidence early and then sling that thang.
Don’t make early mistakes in the passing game. Get the quick passing game rolling.
Involve Caullin Lacy, Blue Hicks, and Mark Redman heavily.
How Washington wins
Winning the turnover battle
Washington has the exact same turnover margin as Louisville.
It’s more likely than not that whoever wins the turnover battle wins this game.
Strong pass defense leading to short field
Washington has one of the best pass defenses in the country.
Louisville football has a QB starting his first game since 2022.
Harrison Bailey can make this a little more hectic than we’d like by giving the ball back to the opponent too often.
A great way to keep Washington in this thing is to take risks against a defense allowing under 58% completion rate to opponents.
Predictions
Mark Shafer, UW Dog Pound: Washington, 31-17
Andrew Berg, UW Dawg Pound: Washington, 27-23
Max Vrooman, UW Dawg Pound: Washington, 26-20
College Football News: Washington, 26-23
Winners and Whiners: Washington +2.5
Alexis Cubit, Courier-Journal: Louisville, 28-21
Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle: Louisville, 27-26
Jacob Lane, SOL: Louisville -1
Matt McGavic, From The Pink Seats/ SI Louisville: Louisville, 28-24
Pres’ Picks
Guys, I’ve never had less of an idea of who is going to win a football game.
Perhaps a slight embellishment, but I mean with the insane amount of transfers and opt outs in this game alone, it’s truly impossible to get a read on how ready each team will be.
Washington head coach Jedd Fisch has been successful everywhere he’s been, and a bowl game victory to put his team above .500 would be massive for momentum.
However, Jeff Brohm and Louisville football have plenty to play for as well.
I don’t question how hard these two teams will play or how badly they want to win. But this does feel like a slow-starting, sloppy game where both teams are breaking in a new QB and a slew of lesser traveled players.
Mistakes will be made. It’s just a matter of who makes less of them.
The line has moved sharply in Washington’s favor over the last three weeks. Louisville opened as a 5-point favorite, the line was bet up to -5.5, and then gradually has turned into Louisville -1 or a pick ’em in some places.
That could indicate that Vegas knows something. Or that not enough people are betting the Huskies.
Either way, that makes me nervous in choosing the Cards.
I’m especially surprised to see some of the predictions above. Washington football-knowers feel pretty comfortable in predicting a L here for the Cards.
But… I don’t.
At the end of the day, Louisville still has its full offensive line in tact and its two star running backs ready to roll.
Harrison Bailey has enough starting experience to make me confident that he is capable of getting this done, and Louisville works in Caullin Lacy as a well-rested primary receiver.
Give me the Cards in this one in a higher scoring affair than the experts think.
Louisville 38, Washington 30
