With Louisville football having major roster turnover at some of the most important positions, it is time that we get to know some of these players on a more intimate level. Leading up to kick off we will look at some of the advanced stats from Pro Football Focus for our new players.
This is your chance to be the smartest friend in your friend group so pay attention.
We are going to start by looking at the most important player on the roster. The Quarterback.
In Jack Plummer’s one year at California, he accounted for 3,095 yards while converting 21 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. He did this on 282 completions with a 62.3 completion percentage.
Let’s look behind those numbers and break them down a little more.
Overview
Jack Plummer was a gunslinger for California in 2022. He dropped back on 496 plays and had 453 attempted passes. Of those attempts PFF graded 18 of those throws as turnover worthy plays (3.4%) and his average depth of target was 9 yards.
Although his completion percentage was 62.3%, his adjusted average was 74.7%. His total time to throw the ball was 2.57 seconds and he was hit while throwing 7 times. 17% of the plays where he was pressured turned into sacks and was ultimately brought down 31 times.
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Distance
0-9 Yards (Short)
Jack Plummer attempted 184 short throws with a completion percentage of 76.1% and a PFF passing grade of 66.6. The number that stands out to me on Plummer’s short throws is his adjusted completion percentage. The ADJ% is a percentage of passes that were on target but were dropped by the Receiver. Plummer’s ADJ% on his short throws was 82.6%. This was his highest completion percentage at any level of the field.
Plummer did struggle in this range when he was under pressure. He finished the season with 9 interceptions and 4 of them came in this short distance. When under pressure he showed that he struggled to get rid of the ball fast enough.
10-19 Yards (Medium)
This is where Jack Plummer thrived last year and where I expect him to thrive again this year. He attempted 95 medium distance throws and accounted for 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He also has a 86.7 PFF grade in this distance which is very good.
His strongest throws were to the middle and left side of the field in this range where he showed the ability to layer throws under the Defensive Backs and over the Linebackers. When he gets time in the pocket and everything else is clicking this is where I expect him to be looking most often.
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20+ Yards (Deep)
Plummer only attempted 60 passes to the deep parts of the field but did manage to turn that into 7 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. While he was elite throwing to the right side of the field in this range grading out at 89.2, he struggled over the middle of the field throwing 3 interceptions in that area alone.
We know that Jeff is going to ask him to stretch the field vertically, but I am a little worried about what he will look like trying to push the ball to the deepest parts of the field. He did well in man coverage but struggled being able to read the safety in the middle of the field.
Pressure
Here is where the numbers really start to tell the story of Jack Plummer. When Plummer was kept clean on a play, he had a passing grade of 88.3 and threw for 18 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He also had an adjusted completion percentage of 78.6%. He was elite when he could stay on time and get the ball out when he was supposed to.
On the flip side, when he held onto the ball too long and was under pressure, he threw 5 interception and only 3 touchdowns. He also carried a 46.1 passing grade which is very bad for a Power Five Quarterback.
Also read: Louisville Football 2024 Summer Recruiting Update
Breakdown
The question of how should I feel about Jack Plummer is a very difficult question to answer. The better question is, how much do I trust a Jeff Brohm offense? There is no denying that when on script Plummer has the skills to be an elite Quarterback. If his line can give him time, he has the ability to methodically pick apart the middle of a defense and we have the potential to see a Louisville football team that is rolling. On the other side, if he cannot get the protection he needs and he is asked to do things out of rhythm. We have seen him fall apart in those situations.
Another stat that stands out to me is that when he struggled under pressure his time to throw the ball jumped from 2.15 seconds all the way to 3.28 seconds. That tells me that some of the issues Plummer faced were self-made issues. If he can get rid of the ball when his reads are not there it could help continue to drive the turnover number down.
I personally trust what Jeff Brohm can do, and I trust that he will come up with a scheme that Plummer can thrive in. As we begin to enter real games I would pay close attention to O-line and D-line matchups. If the line can keep Plummer clean, then the sky is the limit for this team. Plummer will also see an increased talent level at receiver which should help lead to less drops, which plagued CAL last year and should lead to a higher contested catch success.
Ultimately, I think we see a strong year from Plummer.
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