Louisville basketball travels to Florida State for the ultimate midseason litmus test. Previewing the Cards and Noles and giving our predictions.
Louisville basketball faces perhaps the most important game of the season when it travels to Florida State on Saturday at 8 PM.
Although the Cardinals have reeled off four consecutive victories in conference play and sit alone above the ACC standings, the way Louisville has won may give some fans pause. The Cards have required stellar final minute execution on both sides of the ball against lesser opponents like Pitt and Georgia Tech.
Now, Chris Mack’s squad hits the road to face an opponent that he has not defeated in his time at Louisville.
To add to the pressure of getting over the hump against Leonard Hamilton and Noles, a weak ACC schedule has put UofL in a situation where this may be one of the final opportunities for a quadrant 1 victory. At the moment, Louisville only faces one opponent- Duke at home- that would be considered a Q1 opponent.
Florida State and North Carolina figure to have a chance of being one of those opponents by season’s end. Virginia on the road could be another. However, this is not a typical ACC schedule. The Cardinals will not only have to take care of business against opponents like Boston College and Pitt but bolster their resume in the very few chances that they have.
If the Cards are going to come back home with a road kill in hand, they are going to have to win against an opponent that takes away a lot of their strengths.
With the help of our buddy Ken Pomeroy, let’s break down what the Seminoles bring to the table and how Louisville basketball can secure a potential Q1 win.
Louisville-FSU by the numbers
What immediately stands out about Florida State, as always, is its incredible size and athleticism.
The Noles have boasted the largest team in the country for over a decade under Hamilton.
However, if Louisville basketball is going to snag a victory against FSU, it feels like this is a squad to take advantage of.
Florida State is not nearly the rebounding team one might expect them to be, ranking 287th in the nation in defensive rebounds accounted for.
More concerning for the Seminoles this season is simply their lack of star power. Similar to Louisville, the Noles don’t have the guy yet. Gone is current Raptors starting point guard Scottie Barnes and developing NBA role player M.J. Walker. Gone is pain-in-the-ass big man Balsa Koprivica. Gone is Raiquon Gray- The closest thing college basketball has seen, stylistically, to Zion Williamson since his season at Duke.
The Seminoles have leaned heavily on Houston transfer Caleb Mills to run the show in the absence of Barnes. Mills has been solid, averaging over 12 points per game. However, he is not a menace on the boards like Barnes was and his assist to turnover ratio is nearly 1:1.
Individually, it feels like Malik Osborne is the catalyst for this squad. The 6’9″ forward is a matchup problem for any team as a 45 percent three-point shooter on the season. He snags over 7 boards per game and may give the Cards fits finding a way to check him.
Overall, though, FSU doesn’t have the guy as it has in past seasons and that should give Louisville fans a bit of hope heading into the matchup.
Predictions
Pres: The way Louisville has performed of late has given me an equal amount of hope and anxiety. On one hand, the heady leadership of Jarrod West, Malik Williams, Mason Faulkner, and others has inspired optimism. On the other hand, the fact that this was a requirement from the start makes me nervous about UofL’s ability to put together a complete 40 minutes. That will have to be the case against an FSU squad looking for a get-right game. I’m picking the Cards, but I’d be equally confident picking FSU.
Louisville 68, Florida State 64
Nick: Mack has to shorten the rotation, play 3 guards for the majority of the game, and get Malik going on both ends. The tougher and more intentional teams wins as usual in this matchup. I’ll stick with what I’ve seen so far and expect the Cards to fall short on the road to another long, deep, and scrappy bunch of Noles.
Florida State 70, Louisville 63
Ken Pom: Florida State 71, Louisville 67
