Louisville basketball is looking for any sort of momentum it can muster on a Saturday trip to Pitt.
Times are bleak for Louisville basketball fans. On the heels of a blowout home loss to NC State on Wednesday, the Cardinals are fighting for their tournament lives; This time on a road trip to 6-10 Pittsburgh.
Let’s be clear: This is a game that Louisville basketball should never lose. There is not a single scenario where a program such as UofL’s should ever lose this Pitt squad.
But I’ll be honest. I have no idea what this team is going to bring on Saturday, and that is a terrifying thought.
The Cards have the talent and experience to reel off a solid stretch of victories but based on what we have seen thus far this season, thinking Louisville is going to win any game going forward is simply blind optimism at this point. We have no idea what we are going to see night in and night out. Head coach Chris Mack indicated as much in his postgame presser on Wednesday. Until precedence is set, it’s just a wait-and-see situation.
Let’s take a look at the Cards and Pitt by the numbers and break down what Louisville needs to do to win.
Louisville-Pitt by the numbers
As mentioned, this is not a team that Louisville even thinks about losing to in a normal year.
In an average season over the last two decades, UofL fans are clamoring for David Levitch or Simeon Naydenov by the under 8 timeout in the second half.
This season, let’s just hope for a victory. Let’s take a peek at the numbers.
If you watched the first meeting, you’ll remember a few important details about the Panthers; They are just straight up not good at quite a few things. Namely, shooting the basketball, passing the basketball, dribbling the basketball- Those sort of components.
However, you’ll also remember that Pitt has one really good player in 280-pound big man John Hugley. Pun absolutely intended, this guy is why the Panthers haven’t lost a lot of games… hugley.
On the offensive glass, there are few better than Hugley in the country- To be more precise, KenPom says he is in the top 5% in the nation.
Meanwhile, on the defensive boards, Louisville’s Malik Williams is 25th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.
A sloppy, muck-it-up, old school Pittsburgh, blue-collar rock fight broke out when these two faced each other just 10 days ago. It took Louisville basketball hitting 7 out of its final 8 shots to pull away in the end. However, what most people will remember that game for was the 6 technicals assessed. Pitt had three T’s within the first 90 seconds of the game. Williams and Hugley got into it on several occasions trying to assert their machismo in the low post. Instead of punking the younger Hugley though, Williams was whistled for two techs, including one from the bench after he already fouled out.
To me, that is the obvious storyline now entering round two. Louisville is desperate for a win. Pitt has nothing to lose. It’s never easy to win at Pitt, even when the Panthers suck this much eggs. And I’m not sure Louisville basketball has the composure necessary to come away from this environment against this team with the dub.
I’d look for two players on the Louisville side to get going. Matt Cross and Noah Locke are UofL’s floor spacers. When they are hitting their shots the Louisville offense is much better.
Now that Locke has been relegated to a bench role and Cross is simply not hitting at the rate that he was during a solid December stretch, Louisville has to find ways to get those two involved. There feels like no better time than against a Pitt team that doesn’t have much to write home about on the wings.
Locke and Cross are two of the top three players on this team in offensive usage. It’s time to see their chances finally turning into more efficiency on offense.
Finally, we talk about this far too much on the Starting Five02 Podcast, but who stirs the drink for this team? Right now, there is not a go-to playmaker nor distributor on offense.
In my opinion, it’s time to let El Ellis go to work.
Look, Louisville’s offense has been abysmal this season and the defense is regressing. So. if you’re the Cards you can choose to go one of two ways. Accept that you’re a defensive stalwart and start playing like it. Louisville’s defensive efficiency rating fell from the teens to 51 since the COVID pause. Are the Cards a defensive-minded team? Time to start playing like it then. If not, your other option is to get the ball in the hands of your playmakers. For the Cards on offense, that is Ellis, Mason Faulkner, and Matt Cross. Those guys have to “stir the drink,” create offensive movement and help create openings for Williams, Locke, Davis, West, and the rest of the supporting cast.
Prediction time
Your guess is really as good as mine. I think this is going to be ugly once again, so I’ll just close my eyes and hit some random buttons on the keyboard.
Louisville 66, Pitt 65
KenPom: Louisville 68, Pitt 64
