Examining the best and worst-case scenarios for Louisville basketball as it awaits its NCAA Tournament fate.
The day is finally here. After missing out on 7 total games thanks to COVID-19-related pauses, Louisville basketball has finally made it to selection Sunday.
Now, Cardinals fans are forced into the uncomfortable position of waiting to see if their team’s name is called on Sunday afternoon.
Leading up to the bracket reveal, let’s take a closer look at what the best and worst-case seeding scenarios are for the Cardinals.
Louisville basketball final tournament resume
First, let’s take a look at Louisville’s final resume.
Ironically enough, the NET rankings peg Louisville’s biggest win of the season as its overtime victory at Duke. That Duke squad is not going to be in the initial NCAA Tournament draw.
Meanwhile, wins over a ranked Virginia Tech squad and ACC Tournament champions Georgia Tech are Quadrant 2 victories. In this wild year, I guess we shouldn’t expect anything less.
Louisville finishes the season with victories over No.’s 33, 48, 49 (x2), 57, 60, 81, 84, 93, 100, 186, 189, 203, and 233 in the NET. A win over No. 149 Miami- Louisville’s only “bad” loss and the Cardinals are sitting much more comfortably heading into the tournament.
What will the committee think?
How the committee factors in COVID-related layoffs, responses to said layoffs, and missed opportunities for good wins will certainly play a major factor for Louisville basketball.
For the first time in a long time, Louisville simply lacks quality wins on its resume. Its best victories would not have served beneficial in a “regular” season. However, Louisville had very few opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins, and two of the seven chances the Cards had were coming off a 16 and 18 day layoff. One of the games, Louisville didn’t have its best player. All of this will certainly be considered when the committee is crunching the numbers.
Also up for consideration is how much the committee factors in RPI. Louisville boasts a comfortable win over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 81st in the NET rankings but 49th in the RPI. The Cards have two solid wins over No. 49 Duke in the NET. However, the Blue Devils rank 110th in the RPI rankings.
Finally, these decisions are all still somewhat subjective. The rankings are not end all, be all in a normal season. This year, the NET has yielded some wonky rankings. Colgate, who has only played 14 games in ranked 9th. Loyola-Chicago is 10th. Saint Bonaventure is 27th in the NET.
Other teams that stand out are 13-11 Duke at 49th, 11-14 Penn State at 42nd, 9-16 Kentucky at 60th, and 15-13 Maryland at 35th.
While Louisville is ranked 56th in the NET, a major factor could simply be that the Cardinals have played too few games. Louisville basketball is one of 7 teams in the top 100 of the NET that have played 20 games or less.
Louisville is likely to take precedence over many teams ahead of them based on eye test and common sense alone.
Worst-case seeding scenario: Louisville is out
The worst-case scenario for Louisville basketball is that it is out of the tournament.
Let me preface this by saying it is highly unlikely that the Cards are not in. Over the last week, nearly every “bubble” team with a similar resume to the Cards has lost a game in a must-win scenario.
Bubble teams St. John’s, Xavier, Boise State, Utah State, St. Louis, Memphis, Ole Miss, and Duke all lost or had to bow out due to positive COVID tests.
The other thing that we have to look at is what teams that would not have made it in as an at-large “stole” a spot in the tournament. The great news for all bubble teams is that these scenarios were few and far between in this year’s conference tournaments. The notable exceptions were Georgetown, who won the Big East Tournament, Iona, who won the MAAC Tournament, and Oregon State, who won the PAC-12 Tournament.
Louisville being out would mean that the committee heavily weighed the Cardinals post-COVID blowout losses to Wisconsin and North Carolina.
Finally, even if this worst-case scenario does play out, I still see Louisville getting in. That would mean the Cardinals were one of the first 2-3 teams out of the tournament, and thusly would still stand a good chance of making its way in.
Teams like Kansas and Virginia will have to test negative for seven consecutive days before being allowed to play in the postseason. That means a lucky team like Duke, Western Kentucky, Wichita State, or, yes, maybe Louisville could find itself right back in the thick of things as a replacement squad.
Most likely scenario: Louisville is an 11-seed playing a six, or in the First Four
What most of the experts think is that Louisville basketball will be among the last four teams in, or the “next four” teams in. That would mean the Cards are an 11 seed either in the field or in the First Four.
All fans should be hoping that if this is the scenario, the Cards are an 11 seed in the actual field.
Does it even count if you “make” the tournament and lose in the First Four? Feels like a pretty undesirable scenario to me personally. With that being said, we saw VCU make the Final Four from the First Four in 2011. Additionally, Syracuse, La Salle, and Tennessee have all made Sweet 16 runs out of the First Four.
Best-case scenario: Louisville is a 10-seed
Perhaps the committee views Louisville basketball in a favorable light. Louisville has some things going. The Cardinals only have one bad loss, and that is to a Miami team who made a charge in the ACC Tournament. Additionally, the committee could factor in Louisville having been on two separate lengthy COVID pauses and the Cardinals being decimated by injuries all season.
Finally the Cardinals could benefit from the sheer number of ACC teams that will be in the tournament. There are 7 or 8 ACC squads likely to be in the big dance and the committee tries to avoid rematches at all costs. That could be of Louisville’s benefit when all is said and done.
Next: A year after death of Brionna Taylor, Louisvillians have more questions than answers
