Louisville basketball released its full 2022-23 schedule and we try to put each game into tiers of wins, losses, and toss-ups.
Louisville basketball released its full 31-game schedule on Tuesday.
Attempting to place each game into one of three tiers.
Tier 1: Games Louisville should be expected to win
11 games | These are the games where you say “we are Louisville. We are better. Take this L”. Period. Any year, regardless of skill level, Louisville basketball needs to win these.
Bellarmine | November 9th
Right out the gate, Scotty Davenport is going to keep this one close. You just know he is.
Still, Louisville’s 7th guy should be better than Bellarmine’s first guy. Get the win and move on.
Wright State | November 12th
App State | November 15th
You lose to these two teams and you’re in for a long, long season.
Maryland | November 29th
Beat this team last year on a neutral site. Terps should be a bit better but they shouldn’t be good enough that Louisville basketball fans should be okay with a loss.
WKU | December 14th
The Cards dropped this one last year in what felt like the start of the Chris Mack spiral straight to hell.
Can’t lose to this team again, fellas.
Florida A&M | December 17th
Lipscomb | December 20th
Two buy games. Win em.
Clemson/ at Clemson | January 11th, February 18th
The Tigers struggled in the transfer portal this offseason but bring in a couple of solid freshmen.
Still, two W’s against the fightin’ Brad Brownell’s should be in order.
Georgia Tech/ at Georgia Tech | February 1st, February 25th
Michael DeVoe isn’t walking through that door. Thank god. Jordan Usher ain’t walking through that door. Praise the lord.
Josh Pastner and the Yellow Jackets shocked the world and won the ACC Tournament two seasons ago.
Since then, it’s been an ugly slide for Pastner. Is this his last season? Louisville basketball should make sure he doesn’t leave with an unexpected parting gift if so. This is not going to be a good squad.
Tier 2: The toss-ups/unknowns
8 games | Teams Louisville basketball traditionally should beat but there’s not enough data to make me confident to predict one way or another.
at NC State | December 22nd
The Wolfpack figure to be middle-of-the-road in 2022-23 but this has trap game written all over it.
As it’s been in recent years, you don’t know quite yet what to expect from Kevin Keatts’ squad.
Syracuse | January 3rd
The Cards are better against the Orange at home. They are 10-4 at home all-time against Syracuse, including 3 of the last 4 in the KFC Yum! Center.
Wake Forest | January 7th
Wake loses ACC Player Of The Year Alondes Williamson, first-round NBA draft pick Jake LaRavia, plus contributors Dallas Walton, Khadim Sy, Isaiah Mucius, Carter Whitt, and Miles Lester.
However, Steve Forbes brings in a really solid crop of talent. The Cards better come ready for this squad.
Pitt/ at Pitt | January 18th, February 7th
The Panthers should be about the same as last season after losing Xavier Johnson but retaining John Hugley.
Gotta split this series at a minimum.
at Boston College | January 25th
Makai Ashton-Langford has been in college longer than Chris Mack was at Louisville. The Eagles and first year head coach Earl Grant add a decent recruiting class and will be a team to watch as the season progresses.
at Notre Dame | January 28th
Virginia Tech | February 28th
These squads will likely finish in the top half of the league. Two teams with great coaches that will give the Cards a run for their money.
The key is these match-ups are in the KFC Yum! Center. If Louisville wants to make the big dance, these are teams you cannot fall to.
Tier 3: Games against projected Top 50 squads
12 games | Each more daunting than the last; Games I think Louisville basketball has a better chance of losing than winning.
Arkansas | Maui, HI | November 21st
Eric Musselman was the guy not named Kenny Payne or Scott Drew that people wanted during the coaching search.
There is a reason for that. The Razorbacks are going to be a top 10 squad this season and should be right in the mix in the SEC.
Texas Tech or Creighton | Maui, HI | November 22nd
Two more top 10 teams; Neither of which you want to see on the schedule the day after playing Arkansas.
The winners of Louisville/ Arkansas and Texas Tech/ Creighton will play each other. As will the losers.
San Diego State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, or Arizona | Maui, HI | November 23rd
Again, it’s a total crapshoot here. Are the Cards flying high into the championship game or trying to notch their first win in Hawaii?
Whoever they play, each of these four teams are top 25 or quasi-top 25 teams.
Florida State / at Florida State | December 10th, February 4th
We know the story here. Leonard Hamilton is great. His teams are massive. It’s really hard to beat the Seminoles at your best. It’s even more difficult on the road.
Louisville basketball struggles more against FSU than any team not named Virginia or Kentucky.
Miami/ at Miami | December 4th, February 11th
In case you haven’t familiarized yourself yet, Miami is a top-four team in the ACC this year.
This is a squad that will be able to beat any team in the country on any given night. The Cards get them twice.
at Kentucky | December 31st
Louisville basketball fans don’t want to hear this but… Kentucky is going to be great this season.
Kenny Payne’s first game back in Rupp on the opposing sideline. Really tough to envision the Cards walking out of there with a W.
North Carolina | January 14th
The defending national runner-ups feel very similar to Louisville moving from 2011-12 to 2012-13.
They will be the rightful No. 1 team in the country when the season begins.
at Duke | February 20th
Louisville’s first time in front of a full Cameron Indoor crowd since its insane win in 2019. These Blue Devils will be elite, even without Coach K.
Virginia/ at Virginia | February 15th, March 4th
Always have to finish the year with these bums. Will never not hate it. And the Wahoos figure to be solid once again.
Bonus: How does Louisville basketball make the tournament?
Is there a path for Louisville basketball to make the tournament? Maybe.
In order to do so, the Cards will have to execute some semblance of the following.
Tier 1: 11-0 (Can’t really win less than 9 here)
Tier 2: 6-2
Tier 3: 2-10
Total: 19-12 might cut it
Win the games you’re supposed to and steal a couple along the way, and maybe we see Payne and the Cards in the tournament in year one.
