Louisville basketball heads to East Lansing for its toughest test to date. Previewing the Cards and Sparty.
Chris Mack is back. However, the Louisville basketball head coach won’t have much time to get acclimated after a 6-game suspension.
On Wednesday, Mack and the Cards travel to East Lansing to take on Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
Welcome back, coach. Here’s an ACC-B10 Challenge game in one of the toughest road environments in the country against a hall of fame head coach.
Louisville had much reason to be concerned early in Mack’s absence. The Cards dropped an OT head-scratcher to Furman in game two and let a pretty bad Detroit Mercy team hang around late.
Now though, Louisville basketball has things rolling again. Sandwiched between Furman and Detroit was a solid victory over a game Navy squad. Then, a trip to the Bahamas saw Louisville play probably it’s best defensive basketball since the pre-COVID era in two wins against likely tournament teams Mississippi State and Maryland.
The Spartans are a different challenge altogether though. Let’s preview one of the more important games during a critical non-conference stretch in December.
Who: Louisville at Michigan State
When: December 1st, 2021 at 7:15 PM
Where: Breslin Center (capacity: 14,500) | East Lansing, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Radio: 840 WHAS AM in Louisville
Last Meeting: Louisville won 82-78 in OT in 2018
Series: Louisville leads 6-5 (0-3 in East Lansing)
Spread Check: MSU -4.5
BPI Favorite: Michigan State 68.9% chance to win
Thread Check: Potentially a look at the standard reds?
KenPom’s Corner
KenPom Prediction: (39) Louisville 64, (25) Michigan State 70
Players to watch
Jae’Lyn Withers, Louisville
Louisville’s most talented player, Withers simply has not been where the Cardinals need him to be yet.
Withers has found himself on the bench more often than not in crunch time so far, which ultimately is not a great sign for the Cards.
Senior captain and frontcourt mate Malik Williams stepped his game up a notch in the Bahamas. Now, the Cards need Withers to bring the same energy, effort, and attention to detail.
Michigan State brings great size. The Cards have to match it with their 6’9” forward who can defend, rebound, and score at all levels.
Gabe Brown, Michigan State
Sparty has an explosive, freak athlete of its own at power forward in Brown.
The 6’8” Michigan native can score at every level and poses a matchup problem if the Cards have to front him with Matt Cross or Samuell Williamson.
Against Baylor, Brown was neutralized a bit and that was part of the Bears’ recipe for an impressive victory.
This comes down to Withers and Williams walling up on drives, hedging on screens, and closing out on the 35% three-point shooter.
Keys to the game: (1) Battle on the boards
Louisville basketball turned it on in the Bahamas on the window, out-rebounding a Big Ten team by its largest margin ever.
The Cards will have to bring the same sort of effort on the boards against Michigan State. Izzo’s boys thrive on the boards and can spark major runs with dominant rebounding.
If Louisville outrebounds MSU, it gives itself a chance to be in this at the end.
(2) Who gets hot from three?
How do you upset a top 25 team on the road?
Aside from defense, rebounding, and turnover margin, the three-point shot is the great equalizer.
Thus far, however, Louisville and MSU have been anything but efficient beyond the arc. Louisville basketball has hit just under 30 percent of three point shots on the season. Sparty has knocked down 32 percent of its attempts. Both defenses rank in the top 75 in three-point defense early on.
This Louisville team though was constructed to be able to knock down shots from deep. Three players- Matt Cross, Noah Locke, and Jarrod West- averaged better than 40 percent from three for their careers entering the season.
Can Louisville get into a rhythm in East Lansing and unlock another piece of the puzzle? It feels bound to happen sooner rather than later.
Predictions
Nick Conner: Louisville 62, MSU 60
Matt McGavic: MSU 69, Louisville 68
Alan Thomas: Louisville 71, MSU 67
Brian Trent: Louisville 75, MSU 58
Presley Meyer: MSU 72, Louisville 67
