Louisville basketball faces a first-round NCAA Tournament opponent that is built from a similar mold.
Pat Kelsey has never won an NCAA Tournament game as a head coach. In five tries, the Louisville basketball head coach has fallen short each time — The latest coming in a sound defeat in the 2025 first round at the hands of a quality Creighton squad.
The 2026 tournament feels like Kelsey’s best opportunity yet to get off the schneide and propel his team to a deep run.
For only the second time, Kelsey enters his team’s first game in the tournament as a favorite.
Louisville opened as a 6.5-point favorite over 11th-seeded South Florida. But the Louisville basketball staff and players are keenly aware of the challenge in front of them.
Kelsey is quick to remind folks that this USF team hasn’t lost a game since January 31st.
“They’re really good — They’re red hot. They’ve won, I believe, 14 of 15 games,” Kelsey told the media on Monday.
“I believe they’ve won 10 or 11 consecutive games (they’ve won 11 straight). They have the conference player of the year. They have the conference defensive player of the year and the conference newcomer of the year. They are top-five in the country in offensive rebounding. They have two of the best three-point shooters in the entire country — Two guys that’ve made over 100 threes.”
“They play very fast, they’re extremely dangerous, and a team that’s — Like I said — red hot playing their best basketball at the right time of the year.”
Kelsey understands the importance of this game — Both for his legacy and career arc, and for the sanity of the folks that sign his paychecks.
And there is no doubt that, given the up-and-down nature of Louisville’s 2026 season, the Cardinals got about as good a draw as one could have expected.
Among the five other teams that fell on the 11-seed line, USF feels like the best matchup for the Cards. VCU is an electric shooting team that gets to the free-throw line a ton. Miami (OH) finished the regular season undefeated, and this year’s media darling will be a tough out for anyone. Texas is the type of power conference foe that could be primed for a run out of the First Four. Then, NC State and SMU are two conference foes that the Cards wouldn’t have faced, but who would present plenty of challenges.
All things considered, Louisville basketball fans should really like this first-round draw.
Louisville leaning on experienced depth
What does Louisville bring to the table against South Florida? Kelsey says his team will lead into its seniority.
“(Louisville is) a veteran team that’s battle tested,” Kelsey said Monday. “We have a ton of guys with tournament experience. Got tough guys that compete, and I think we’re extremely dangerous on the offensive end and play our butts off on the defensive end as well.”
While Kelsey hasn’t notched that first tournament win, he has players who have won in March.
J’Vonne Hadley, Louisville’s steady leader who has started 122 career games, led Colorado to a thrilling victory over Florida in 2024’s tournament before the Buffaloes fell to Marquette in the round of 32.
Two current Cards started postseason games for the opponent, which is an unusual feat.
Ryan Conwell played for the Bulls as a freshman in 2023, and Kasean Pryor helped USF to an NIT appearance in 2024.
Conwell then helped St. Louis reach the NIT finals in ’24 and was instrumental for a Xavier team that lost its first game to Illinois a season ago.
Elsewhere, Aly Khalifa started for a BYU team that fell to Duquesne in the round of 64 in 2024.
Isaac McKneely was part of two Virginia squads that made the Big Dance in 2023 and ’24. He put up 12 and 2 in an upset loss to Furman in his last tourney appearance.
Kobe Rodgers led DII Nova Southeast to an undefeated national title in 2023, then started and put up 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists for College of Charleston in 2024 before exiting a game vs. Alabama with a serious knee injury.
Outside of NCAA ball, Louisville’s big men saw plenty of success in the postseason.
Sananda Fru took a significant step forward in the 2025 German BBL playoffs, averaging 12.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. He finished with 21 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 blocks, and was named the BBL’s best young player.
Vangelis Zougris played in three seasons’ worth of Greek postseason basketball and averaged more than 14 points and 5 rebounds per contest in last year’s playoff run.
Overall, Louisville basketball does have quality experience in the postseason, but is still looking to put the pieces together this March.
South Florida built for March bracket-busting
On the other side, Louisville is paired against an opponent that plays a similar style.
It will face a South Florida team that saw a rocky start with losses to George Washington, VCU, and Colorado State, but has been on a tear of late. That momentum has made the Bulls the trendy pick to be an 11-seed springing an upset on Thursday.
The Bulls finished first overall in the AAC with a 15-3 conference record and went on to win the AAC Title game against Wichita State — It’s first conference tournament win in 36 years.
First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson also led Arkansas State to a conference title last season and has rapidly ascended the coaching ranks after four years as Nate Oats’ understudy at Alabama.
Like Oats (and Kelsey) Hodgson is an analytics fiend who loves playing a drive and dish style, which is conducive to lots of paint touches and open shots from deep.
USF plays with its hair on fire, pushing the pace and aiming to take open threes and shots close to the basket. It is 15th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, accounting for more than 71 possessions per 40 minutes. For perspective, Louisville finished the season averaging 69.6 possessions per 40.
Like UofL, the Bulls don’t have a true big man upfront. However, USF’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer — Izaiyah Nelson — could pose a serious challenge for the Cards.
Nelson, who came over with the current staff from Arkansas State, is an efficient pick-and-roll guy who is a problem when he gets downhill. His game is a bit reminiscent of James Scott’s, who started in the middle for Louisville a season ago. While this is a bit more of a function of his role in the offense, Nelson plays the screener and roller spot well and is a monster on the boards.
USF takes a lot of threes, but is inefficient in its execution beyond the arc. Nelson has become a major benefactor of his teammates’ missed shots. He grabs 4 offensive boards a game and is a high-level finisher around the rim.
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The South Florida frontcourt features another Isaiah —Isaiah Jones-– who could quietly be a player to watch. With the Bulls giving up some size to the Cardinals, we may get a heavier dose of Jones, who is a 6’8 guard/ forward that specializes in owning the defensive glass. Jones could become a matchup nightmare for Louisville with his size, length, and versatility. Though not thought of as a three-point specialist, he has been taking and making a lot of late, including 2 for 4 from beyond the arc in the AAC title game and a 4 for 7 game in USF’s season finale. Jones also played a minor role at his previous institution as part of the Oakland team that knocked off Kentucky in 2024.
USF’s frontcourt is the antithesis of what Kelsey and Louisville’s staff desire from their bigs. They are strong, physical, crash the boards maniacally, and finish at a high level.
As a result, Nelson ranks top-10 nationally in win shares per 40 minutes. The players ahead of him on this list include Cameron Boozer, Caleb Williams, and Yaxel Lendeborg. That’s strong company to keep.
In the back court, Louisville should be relishing the opportunity to face a guard lineup like USF’s on the national stage.
Wes Enis is the Bulls’ lead guard and the straw that stirs its drink.
Enis is averaging 16.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists to 1.6 turnovers on nearly 14 field goal attempts per game.
While not notably long or quick, Enis still has enough size and playmaking ability to become a real problem for Louisville basketball.
He plays a very similar role for the Bulls to what Conwell has for the Cards in Brown’s absence. A 6’2″ lefty, Enis is at his best getting downhill in one-on-one scenarios and can create his own shot.
Enis is given a lot of freedom to go back to the basket and take shots when available in the mid-range, and has been highly impactful in late game situations this season.
Most importantly, Enis is a true outside threat, who takes 9.4 threes a game, hitting 3.5 per contest. His ability to score late in the shot clock is something Louisville will be forced to account for.
Guard play is so crucial in the Big Dance, and Enis’ sharp-shooting gunslinging nature is something the Bulls will lean on as it eyes a deep run.
Alongside Enis, the Bulls’ Joseph Pinion is a floor-stretching threat built for March success.
At 6’5″, Pinion plays the Isaac McKneely role for this USF squad, firing 69% of his field goal attempts from deep. In 18 games this season, he has made three or more 3’s, including a 6-for-12 outing in the AAC semis against Charlotte.
This is a South Florida team that sells out to crash the offensive glass, ranking 3rd nationally in offensive rebounds. Much like Louisville, USF is going to look for the best shot quickly, and then crash the boards to create second-chance opportunities.
As a result, the Bulls have attempted more free throws than any team in the country at a clip of 27 per game.
How Louisville wins (and loses)
The path forward is pretty simple for Louisville basketball. It must play the version of basketball that got it here in the first place.
Everything starts with the three-point line. Louisville’s offense is built around spacing and shotmaking, and when the Cardinals are rolling, they can bury teams quickly.
If Louisville starts hitting threes early, it forces South Florida to stretch its defense out farther than it wants. And despite USF’s competency behind the arc, Louisville has consistently been one of the ebst three point shooting teams in the nation. Making shots from deep has proven a challenge of late — The Cards only hit six threes in their two ACC tournament games. But when they are falling, the three-point shot opens driving lanes, kick-outs, and the kind of offensive rhythm that has defined the Cardinals at their best this season.
Conwell becomes especially dangerous when the ball is popping, and defenders are scrambling.
I expect Brown to make his return for this game, and his playmaking ability and willingness to go to the basket stretch a vulnerable South Florida defense beyond its usual limits.
The other side of that equation is taking care of the basketball. South Florida thrives when games get messy. Live-ball turnovers turn into transition opportunities, and that’s exactly the kind of momentum that can swing an NCAA Tournament game. Louisville doesn’t have to be perfect, but it has to value possessions and avoid the careless mistakes that let an underdog hang around.
We saw this come to fruition in a sloppy loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament. After 5 early turnovers, Louisville controlled the later part of the first half by maintaining possession and keeping the Hurricanes honest. However, an indecisive start to the second half led to a lot of easy run-outs, and Miami’s 21 points off turnovers were ultimately the winning difference.
Rebounding will matter too. Louisville has consistently been the bigger and more physical team on the glass this season, and that needs to show up again. Limiting second-chance opportunities while creating a few extra possessions of their own can quietly tilt the game.
Sananda Fru becomes important here, both protecting the rim and finishing defensive possessions.
Louisville opted to roll with Fru over Zougris down the stretch in its last game, and Fru’s ability to protect the rim kept the Cards within striking distance late.
If the game tightens late — which tournament games often do — Louisville has to trust its experience. When the Cardinals defend, rebound, and knock down timely shots in the final minutes, they’re capable of closing games out.
If Louisville shoots it on par with its season average, takes care of the ball, and controls the glass, it should be able to dictate the terms of the game. That’s usually when the Cardinals are at their best.
South Florida has flexed its muscle late in the season. But its ability to go on an 11-game winning streak may largely be due in part to an easy schedule.
The average NET ranking of its final 11 opponents was 158. Compare that to Louisville’s schedule, and it’s easy to see why the Cardinals could be a completely different beast. The average NET ranking of Louisville’s final 11 opponents was 54. It played in 8 quad 1 games over that stretch, while the Bulls have just five all season.
Louisville basketball must be up for the challenge of an opponent that has been hot of late. If it sticks to its identity, UofL can win on its own terms and run away with a victory in the back stretch of this one.
If the Cards continue the trend of missing open shots, this will be another toss-up in a must-win situation.
