Louisville basketball gets back to action on Wednesday against a new-look Wake Forest squad. What to know for the Cards and Demon Deacons.
Louisville basketball may just be the hottest team in the country not named Baylor or Gonzaga. Following a 37-point beatdown in Madison courtesy of the Wisconsin Badgers, the Cards have won four in a row. That winning streak was the biggest reason behind their jump in the AP Polls, the largest leap of the season by any team.
UofL now finds itself ranked 16th in the country, the second-highest of any team in the ACC (No. 12 Clemson). More importantly, they sit atop the ACC standings ahead of Virginia, Duke, and the Tigers.
Louisville basketball will take its undefeated conference record into a road a matchup against the team chosen to finish last in the ACC, Wake Forest.
Coming off a signature win against No. 19 Virginia Tech and a postponement against Georgia Tech, head coach Chris Mack and the Cards will look to keep their winning streak alive. Here’s everything to know about the Steve Forbes-led Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
What to know
Who: #16 Louisville Cardinals (8-1, 3-0) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-3, 0-3)
When: Wednesday, January 13th 2021 | 8:30 PM
Where: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
TV: ACC Network
Spread Check: Louisville -7.5
Streaks: Louisville W4, Wake Forest L3
Uniform Check:
The record doesn’t show it, but this isn’t your usual Wake Forest team
If you’ve followed me on Twitter for the last several years, you probably know I have a huge coach-crush on Steve Forbes. Following a successful stint at East Tennessee State, Forbes was named the head coach of Wake Forest. It didn’t take long for him to remake a roster that was arguably the worst in the ACC since Louisville’s arrival.
Forbes quickly landed experienced transfers Davien Williamson (ETSU’s third-leading scorer in 2019-20), Jonah Antonio (UNLV), Isaiah Wilkins (Va Tech), Ian DuBose (HBU), and Jalen Johnson (Tenn) to help restart the Deacons program. Even more importantly, Forbes landed 2021 four-star guard Carter Whitt and convinced him to reclassify, joining the team midseason. He and fellow freshman Tariq Ingraham have been pleasant surprises early in their careers.
After losing multiple transfers, most notably Olivier Sarr, Forbes has rebuilt his roster and gotten much more from the players left behind from the previous tenure. The main beneficiaries of that have been forwards Isaiah Mucius (Jr.) and Ismael Massoud (So.). The duo is averaging 20.6 points per game, up 9.3 points from a year ago.
If working in a ton of new players in a pandemic season wasn’t enough, Wake Forest has been hit hard by COVID-19 restrictions. Four cancellations/postponements left the Deacs without a game from November 27th to December 31st, a stretch of 34 days. There’s still a ton of work to do for this squad, but they have the weapons to be dangerous. The only variable is time.
The moral of the story is that Forbes is a damn good coach who will have Wake Forest turned around soon. But soon is not now. They are still a year away from being a year away. For now, however, they pose a dangerous threat to any team that overlooks them.
Wake Forest wins if
Wake Forest wins this game if, and only if, they hit shots from deep and catch a non-focused Louisville basketball team.
We’ve seen it before and we’ll probably see it again at some point. Louisville receives recognition & praise, whether it be via record or player award, only to show up the following game ill-prepared and unfocused.
By no means should this Wake Forest team be able to beat Louisville, considering they are easily the worst team in the ACC. Ranked as KenPom’s 124th best team, their wins have come against Delaware State, Longwood, and a school called Catawba. Not exactly household names.
They can’t stop any one from inside the three point line and there’s just about no rim protection. If they can clean that up and play even slightly better than they have, maybe they can catch the Cards slipping.
Louisville basketball wins if
The Cards win this game if they do two things.
- Take care of the basketball
- Bring a strong defensive intensity
Any team, including one as weak as Wake Forest, can beat anyone on any given night. No game is a guarantee. You’ve heard all the cliches, so I’ll stop.
This is a game Cardinals fans should be pretty upset about if Louisville loses.
On paper, it doesn’t look good for Wake Forest. They’re ranked 115th in adjusted offense according to KenPom and 141st in adjusted defense. Wake has given up 70+ points per game over its last three in ACC play.
Assuming Louisville’s defense plays at the level we’ve seen as of late, they should be able to give Wake massive problems. Allowing only 62.8 points per game, the Cards’ defense has shown they can take away top threats. I expect them to key in on Witt and Williamson and attempt to force the Deacs into turnovers – something they’ve done a lot this year.
While some teams have been able to get hot from deep, Wake Forest only shoots 33 percent from deep on the season. It’s not impossible that they could get hot (like they did against UVA) but scoring from 3 is not their forte. Over their last three matchups, they are a combined 19/59 from deep. Combine that with the fact that they are allowing teams to shoot 44 percent, and it’s the reason they’ve lost several in a row.
This is a game where I would expect David Johnson, Carlik Jones, and Sam Williamson to be able to score in the paint at will. Going up against a backcourt made up of mid-major transfers and inexperienced players, this should be a feast for Louisville’s guards. Averaging 35.3 points combined over the last three, Jones and Johnson have played like one of the best duos in the country.
Now, it is simply up for Louisville basketball to respond like the No. 16 team in the country should.
