Louisville football fans should be worried about CFP committee bias

After conference-mate Florida State didn’t get into the playoffs, Louisville football fans should be extremely concerned about their future playoff chances.

For Louisville football, a deflating end to the 2023 season feels even tougher after conference-mate Florida State was left out of the College Football Playoffs on Sunday afternoon.

The final CFP rankings swung as wildly as we’ve ever seen, and the committee left nothing but bitterness and confusion in its wake.

Georgia, the two-time defending national champ, who had won 29 consecutive games, went from first to sixth after a three-point loss. They are headed to the Orange Bowl without a chance at defending back-to-back titles.

Texas, who was seventh for five straight weeks, jumped all the way to third.

Alabama jumped to fourth after its impressive victory over Georgia after being ranked eighth for five consecutive weeks. Lest we forget that just a week earlier, the Tide needed a statistical miracle to win against Auburn- The same Auburn squad that was destroyed by New Mexico State. Bama also had tight wins over South Florida and Arkansas.

FSU is the first undefeated Power Five Conference champion to ever be left out of the playoffs. Florida State beat more bowl-eligible Power Five teams than anyone in the country. And the Noles were jumped by two teams with one loss.

The committee suggested that it believes FSU is not as good of a team as Alabama and Texas right now- the only basis for which they cited leaving the Seminoles out.

Heading into Championship Weekend, Georgia was the No. 1-ranked team. But now, a loss by a field goal to the eighth-rated team forces Georgia out and behind Florida State.

What in the fresh hell?

Objectively, if the committee thought that Georgia was the best team in the country before a 3-point loss to another team that they put in the playoffs, why would the Dawgs fall all the way to sixth?

The committee proved on Sunday that they don’t use the logic of what has happened- wins and losses- but rather, they use an eye test- which is what they think could or should happen.

Committee chair Boo Corrigan explained that the committee used the example of whether or not a team would be favored against another CFP contender in order to determine the rankings. But, what Corrigan and the committee fail to recognize is that some of the same teams that they admitted into the playoffs won as underdogs this week.

Alabama was a 5.5-point underdog to Georgia. Alabama won.

Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to Oregon. Washington won.

A year ago, TCU was a 7.5-point underdog to Michigan in the CFP. The horned frogs won outright, 51-45.

You see, teams play games for a reason. And using mental gymnastics to try to justify leaving a team like Florida State or Georgia out of the playoffs because of theory instead of facts is a slippery slope.

Florida State won every game on its schedule. It went out of the way to schedule LSU and Florida- Two schools from the very conference that the committee caped for- and beat both teams in impressive fashion.

The committee argued that Florida State was “not the same team” without star QB Jordan Travis, who is out for the season with a serious leg injury. But without Travis and backup Tate Rodemaker, the Noles still found a way to beat the number 14 team in the country.

Why do you play the games if this is the result?

Why Louisville football fans should be concerned

This leads to the topic of the dangers presented by a committee-led playoff decision-making process.

Dating back to the days of BCS bowl games, fans and experts alike admonished the computer-based rankings that often crowned unsatisfactory champions.

But, nearly a decade into the CFP committee rankings, have we gone too far the other way?

It certainly feels like it after this season.

No time has a change felt more welcomed than college football’s transition from a 4-team to a 12-team playoff in 2024.

However, the arguments for teams vying for the 12th spot figure to be similar to those on Sunday for the 4th spot.

Making things even worse, especially for a program like Louisville football, is that many of the teams in the Big XII and ACC figure to be taking back seats to a potential new “Power Two”.

With the PAC12 folding and Texas and Oklahoma darting for the SEC next season, every team that made this year’s playoffs will be a part of the SEC or Big Ten next year.

Furthermore, 12 of the top 13 teams in the final CFP rankings will be members of the new Big Two. Only Florida State, Arizona, and Louisville are from the top 15.

The CFP committee has set a precedence. They are showing us what the future will likely hold, which is an implicit bias toward the cash cows in the SEC and Big Ten.

Actual records and resumes be damned.

Louisville football fell to FSU on Saturday night, but Cards fans should have been cheering for their conference mates on Sunday afternoon.

Not because an FSU bid to the playoffs would’ve slotted Louisville football into the Orange Bowl, but because the future of UofL’s conference depends on it.

Imagine a scenario where a 1-loss Louisville is competing against a 2-loss Alabama for the 11-seed in 2024 (12-seed will most often go to an at-large, non-power conference team). Without even knowing the head-to-head, strength of schedule, strength of record, etc., it would be safe to assume that Bama is getting in in that scenario.

The CFP committee is demanding MORE than perfection now. They are demanding style points for teams like Louisville football- And perhaps a little bit of luck.

Florida State did all it could do. It overcame an injury to its Heisman-hopeful QB. It beat TWO teams from the SEC. What else could have been done?

The precedence set is dangerous, and Louisville football fans should be extremely concerned.