Gameday central: What to know for Louisville football vs. Florida State

Louisville football tries to ride momentum into its first conference game against despondent Florida State.

Louisville football is coming off of easily the most important victory of the Scott Satterfield era, but lying in wait is a Florida State squad looking to salvage its season.

First Down: What to Know

Who: Louisville at Florida State
When: September 25th, 2021 | 3:30 PM ET
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, Florida
TV: ESPN 2
Listen: 790 WKRD AM in Louisville
Last Meeting: Louisville won 48-16 on October 24th, 2020
Series History: FSU leads the series 17-5 | Louisville has won 3 out of the last 5
Thread Check: 11/10 absolute heat

Spread Check: Louisville -2
O/U: 61.5

Second Down: What to Watch For

---

What to expect from FSU

Do or die mentality

It’s no secret that this Florida State team is going to play with a sense of separation on Saturday. A program that is only 7 years removed from a national title, FSU finds itself in dire straights after an 0-3 start and a 3-9 start to the Mike Norvell era.

Although FSU has developed a knack for swooping in and grabbing Louisville’s best prospects, the product on the field is far from the lofty expectations of the program.

The Seminoles are going to come out playing desperate. Louisville will need to respond accordingly.

A heavy reliance on the run game

Former Louisville football QB Jordan Travis is an unknown heading into Saturday’s match-up. Former UCF star turned Seminole McKenzie Milton is the likely starter. However, Milton’s return to the gridiron after a career-threatening injury has been shaky. Milton cannot run the ball well, has struggled in the mid-range to deep passing game, and has been turnover prone.

The solution? The Seminoles are likely to try to run the ball and control the clock as much as possible. Florida State has been able to move the ball this season. It has been silly turnovers and boneheaded plays that have cost the Noles. If FSU can sustain drives and get out of its own way, it can be right in this thing.

What to expect from Louisville

More inventive playcalling

What all Louisville football fans should hope to see on Saturday is a continuation of the play-calling that helped the Cardinals to a victory over UCF.

Since taking over the main play-calling duties this season, Satterfield has progressively gone deeper into the playbook. This is an important storyline to watch. Was the Central Florida creativity a one-off or will the Cardinals continue to be the aggressor offensively?

Satterfield showed full confidence in Malik Cunningham and that led to the redshirt junior producing perhaps the best performance of his career. Fans shouldn’t expect Cunningham to duplicate this effort, but they should hope that the Cards are persistent in their mission to sustain drives and keep the defense on its heels.

Potential growing pains on the defense

Louisville’s defense is going to be a bit banged up heading into Saturday’s match-up. Most notably, senior leader Monty Montgomery is an unknown. Additionally, star corner Kei’Trel Clark has been hobbled on and off and missed a drive early in the UCF game.

Heading into the FSU match-up, Louisville faces a team down on its luck, but not short in talent and athleticism. The Noles are likely to be aggressive on offense, and an ailing defense needs to have a next-man-up mentality.

Third Down: What they’re saying

“I think for us – if you go back and watch all of our games, yeah there’s been some plays where it’s been the unit as a whole (making mistakes), but then there’s been some plays where if somebody would have maybe done a certain thing the correct way – just one person kind of messing up on one play, it would have broke for 40 yards.”
-Cole Bentley on offensive line execution

“We know their backs are against the walls, and we know that we’re gonna get their best shot when we go down there this weekend.”
-Scott Satterfield on FSU’s mentality

“Just like every year, they’re big, strong, athletic guys that play with good technique. I just think that we need to just stay after it, no matter what happens. If we go out and have a couple of three-and-outs, we can’t go to the sideline and get down, we just got to keep moving and keep the momentum going in our way. And I think we’ll do that.”
-Cole Bentley on challenges FSU brings

“Well, to be honest, the first thing that jumps out is just their size. A team like Florida State, they’re always going to have the size up front, the D-line especially. But other than that just, they’re very active with their hands, they’re quick and they’re just overall good players. We just got to watch the film, and be able to come out and put our best foot forward.”
-Bryan Hudson on FSU’s strengths

Fourth Down: Predictions

Closest prediction is to receive a $5 gift certificate to Chinese Gourmet Express in Mall St. Matthews.

Presley Meyer: Louisville 41, FSU 32

Matt McGavic: Louisville 42, FSU 28

Spencer Brown: Louisville 38, FSU 24

Alan Thomas: Louisville 45, FSU 31

Brian Trent: Louisville 42, FSU 17

Ethan Sprowles: Louisville 35, FSU 28

Jacob Lane: Louisville 29, FSU 22

Madison Wood: Louisville 35, FSU 24

Megan Brewer: Louisville 27, FSU 14

Nick Conner: Louisville 31, FSU 13

Editor’s Note: This is the first time I can remember our entire group picking Louisville to beat another P5 opponent.

Extra Points

• Remember the Chubba Purdy game last season? Wow, what a damn moment amid a terrible season. 0/9 in a blowout loss to the team he spurned on signing day. Definitely not bitter about the decisions of an 18-year-old. Definitely not weird.
• Louisville is unbeaten on the road this season. Michael J. Fax from Fax to the Future.
• Louisville won its first-ever match-up in Tallahassee in 1952. It lost to FSU the very next season 59-0, and then lost to the Seminoles 13 consecutive times until the unforgetable meeting in 2002 in Louisville.
  The Cards only boast 2 wins over the Seminoles in Tallahassee. That first meeting in 1952, and then a last-second victory over FSU in 2017.
• This is a match-up of the No. 1-rated ACC 2022 recruiting class and the last-place ACC recruiting class in the class of ’22. Last year’s 1 v. 14 match-up saw Clemson defeat Wake Forest 37-13.