There’s a quiet optimism among Louisville football fans entering Saturday’s matchup against No. 6 Miami.
As many have noted recently: Louisville does big events well.
Perhaps more importantly, Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm does big games well.
Brohm boasts four wins over top-10 teams in the last 6 years.
In 2018, his Purdue squad walloped No. 2 Ohio State 49-20.
During the 2021 season, he took the Boilmakers into No. 2 Iowa and won 24-7. They then defeated third-ranked Michigan State 40-29.
Last season, Brohm and Louisville football used a dominant second half to throttle No. 10 Notre Dame, 33-20.
The Hurricanes will be the third top-10 squad Louisville football faces in the Brohm era and the second to play the Cards in L&N Stadium.
Louisville has defeated the last two top-10 teams it has faced at home. The Cards defeated 10th-ranked Wake Forest 48-24 in 2022.
Miami presents a unique challenge for Louisville football. One of the best offensive teams in the country led by a Heisman hopeful, the Hurricanes are relatively battle-tested in big time environments.
But a sellout crowd mixed with a little Brohm magic is enough to make Saturday’s matchup incredibly enticing.
Louisville. Miami. Let’s dive in.
Who: Louisville (4-2, 2-1) vs Miami (6-0, 2-0)
Where: L&N Stadium | Louisville, KY
When: Saturday, October 19th at Noon
How to Watch: ABC
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: Miami leads 11-4-1
Last Meeting: Louisville won 38-31 in 2023 in Coral Gables
Spread Check: Miami -5.0 (opened -4)
Thread Check:
Probably a washed take but if Louisville is going to go all black, I like doing it for a nooner. So much easier to see jersey numbers and such.
The Cards script on the black helmets is sick. There will be no further discussion on the matter.
Miami going polar opposite with the all whites. We love a contrasting jersey game.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QhdFoptIvJw
Keys to victory
Do the little things right
Louisville football came out victorious on the road last week, but the game was probably tighter than it needed to be because of the same issues that have hampered the Cards for the last 4 games.
Penalties have been brutal for the Cards. Not because of the number that they commit, but because of the time and situations when they occur.
The same can be said of third and fourth down conversions.
Louisville has been just woeful on fourth down the last few weeks. Some of it is execution but a lot of it is probably the staff over thinking some things.
The Cards have to simply get their best players in position to take advantage of their strengths.
Brohm has a reputation for calling the right plays at the right time. So, 14 for 39 conversions on third down and 3 for 10 on fourth down over the last three games has been a bit jarring.
Converting in important short yardage situations is going to be the difference between winning and losing against an elite offense.
Starting strong and finishing strong
This might seem obvious but Louisville football has to be able to get off to a strong start and build a lead against this team.
Virginia Tech and Cal built double digit leads against the Canes, forcing Miami to abandon the run game a bit and let quarterback Adam Ward just go to work through the air.
However, if Miami can get a bit of a lead, the Hurricanes have a solid attack in the run game as well.
Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez averaged 6.1 yards per carry over 2 seasons with the Beavers that saw him eclipse 2,000 yards on the ground. Because of the Hurricanes’ propensity to fall behind, Martinez and fellow back Mark Fletcher have been less involved than expected.
Louisville should want to keep things that way.
Getting crowd behind them early and often is crucial here.
That also would give Louisville football an opportunity to do something it hasn’t in conference play: pin its ears back on defense and force chaos in the opposing backfield.
This Louisville team has not ham and egged it well thus far. Getting out to a hot start in front of a sold out environment will be critical if it hopes to spring an upset.
Predictions
Fox Sports: Louisville 28, Miami 33
College Football News: Louisville 34, Miami 31
Scott Van Pelt, ESPN: Louisville +5
Keith Arutoff: Miami -4.5
Jacob Lane: Miami -4.5
Matt McGavic, SI: Louisville ML
Vincent Lococo: Louisville +4.5
Pres’ Picks
Last week, I picked a lopsided victory and bet it all on Tyler Shough and the Louisville receivers getting it done through the air.
Instead, many of the same issues plagued the Cards while freshman running back Isaac Brown continued to show why he is one of the best backs in the league.
A lot of the indicators are there that Louisville football should spring an upset at home. The Cards have the track record of making special things happen in games like this. Brohm is a big game coach.
But so far this season, I just haven’t seen enough to tell me that this team can put it all together and pull out a massive win like this.
This squad has been undisciplined on both sides of the ball. It’s been oft penalized at the wrong times.
Untimely lack of play making is a grave concern and it’s rare that you get things like that turned around at the drop of a hat.
Last season, Louisville developed a reputation for simply getting it done, no matter how ugly the game.
This year, while the overall talent on this roster has improved, there’s been a significant step up in competition. And my fear is that this is the game that cements the Cards as the polar opposite of last season; A team that you don’t want to play, but also a team that ultimately can’t finish off drives and falls just short in the end.
There’s a weird feeling in my stomach about this one. I don’t know if it’s intuition or just a healthy fear of the opponent.
In the end, I think Louisville fans show up and show out. I think Jeff Brohm is in his bag and the Cards have the best showing of the season. I think the Cards cover that -5 number. I just don’t have the confidence yet to pick Louisville to win outright.
Louisville 34, Miami 35
