Louisville basketball: Three key stats vs. Kentucky

Louisville basketball fans lack confidence entering the rivalry game against Kentucky. Here are three key stats that may calm the nerves.

There are a ton of reasons for Louisville basketball fans to be pessimistic entering ta rivalry game against Kentucky.

However, we aren’t here to talk about those reasons. Let’s take a look at three key stats that could indicate the way the Cardinals perform against the Cats.

26.9 vs. 26.8

Let’s start here, because I think this has been one of the more talked-about storylines this week.

Kentucky basketball has been pretty damn terrible from beyond the arc this season. However, the stats will tell you that Louisville is below-average at defending the three.

In 2020, it feels appropriate to analyze games by looking at existing outliers. For Kentucky, every game has been ugly, but one game stands out; its loss to Richmond. The Wildcats went 0-10 from three-point range against the Spiders. This was, obviously, the worst mark in school history since the three point arc has been around.

For Louisville, the very obvious outlier is its historic blowout loss to Wisconsin, where it allowed the Badgers to shoot nearly 65 percent from downtown.

Because of that Wisconsin game where the Badgers hit 16 three’s Louisville’s three point defense is 222nd in the nation at 34.1%. If you remove that outlier against Wisconsin, the Cardinals are allowing 26.9 percent from beyond the arc in their five wins.

Want further proof that the Wisconsin game was an anomaly? The Badgers played another home game on Tuesday and only shot 30.8 percent (8-for-26) from three against a pedestrian Nebraska squad.

Taking away the oh-fer against Richmond, Kentucky moves from 24.3% to 26.8%.

The bottom line is that many will point out that Louisville’s three point defense is vulnerable. But looking at the stats, Kentucky is just flat out not great from three point land, and Louisville does a solid job of defending the perimeter.

22.7 vs 15.3

This represents the number of rebounds of Louisville’s four primary guards vs. Kentucky’s four primary guards.

Louisville has been solid on the boards all season, and that starts with guards Carlik Jones and David Johnson. Jones and Johnson make for one of the best backcourts in the nation. That is primarily because they get it done at every level. Jones averages 16 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.6 assists while Johnson averages 13 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists.

Jones and Johnson will primarily be matched up with the trio of Davion Mintz, BJ Boston, and Devin Askew. Mintz and Askew will play together some, but they are the two primary point guards for the Cats. Boston, the No. 4 overall player in the 2020 class is a guaranteed one-and-done talent. The guard/ forward combo is UK’s primary shot-taker, but he also cleans up on the boards, snagging 6.3 rebounds a game.

Still, the trio of Boston, Mintz, and Askew don’t snag as many alone as the backcourt duo of Jones and Johnson. Gratuitously, I added in Louisville guard/ forwards Samuell Williamson and Dre Davis as well as UK’s Terrence Clark. Still, UK’s four primary guards are outrebounded by 7.4 boards a game when compared to Louisville’s much smaller quartet.

The takeaway here is that Louisville is not a tremendous shooting team by any stretch. However, the Cardinals guards crash the boards about as well as any team in the country. This gap could be a difference-maker on Saturday.

0.8 vs. 0.9

This is the average number of years of experience for Kentucky (0.8) and Louisville (0.9).

In a typical year, Kentucky is going to be much less experienced than the Cards. However, this season, Louisville finds itself in the same boat as the Wildcats.

The only player who will play in this game that was a participant in last year’s game in Lexington is Samuell Williamson. The sophomore played eight minutes. That’s it. Not a single Kentucky player has ever experienced the rivalry game.

Why is this important? For Louisville, it means there is a short memory. No Cardinal feels the angst of any Louisville basketball “curse”. The Cards will treat this game with importance for sure, but it’s doubtful that many will feel any sort of angst like some past teams.

Chris Mack talked the talk in the offseason, and in past rivalry games, he has walked the walk.

This feels like an opportunity for a good mojo, “get right” game to finish out 2020 on a positive note.