Louisville basketball: Four keys to beating FSU

Previewing Louisville basketball and the Florida State Seminoles after a quick turnaround. Four keys for the Cardinals.

Insert brief summary of how disappointed and saddened I am about Louisville basketball loss at Miami on Saturday.

Quip about how the Cardinals have a prime opportunity to bounce back against a tough Florida State squad.

Here are four keys to the game. I am not positive about the outcome; However, I am positive that Louisville will have to do these things in order to come out with its first victory over the Seminoles in the Chris Mack era.

Without further ado: How to beat Florida State.

Keep Florida State out of the paint

This seems like an obvious against any team, but for Louisville basketball against a long, athletic FSU team, this is especially true.

A few games back when previewing a sharpshooting Virginia Tech team, Mack said Louisville’s focus would not be on closing out better on threes, but keeping the opponent out of rhythm, and thusly not allowing them to get free for open looks.

This methodology is likely to be applied against Florida State. Aside from FSU fielding a team of positionless giants that are tough to stop when they get in the lane, the ‘Noles are excellent from beyond the arc.

MJ Walker, Anthony Polite, and Rayquan Evans are among the cast of guards and forwards that shoot 45 percent or better from three. Those players also stand 6’5,” 6’6,” and 6’4″. Louisville has always had issues matching size with Leonard Hamilton’s Monstars. The 2020-21 version of FSU is no different.

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David Johnson and Samuell Williamson must step up

Florida State freshman phenom Scottie Barnes was out for FSU’s win over North Carolina. Let’s consider his status up in the air for Monday night. However, if he plays, I’m not really sure who on this Louisville team can check him. Seemingly the most likely guys to try to D up the 6’9″ guard are coming off poor performances.

The two players who stood out as the biggest no-shows at Miami can’t have a repeat of Saturday night. Louisville basketball guard David Johnson is obviously infinitely better than he showed in Coral Gables. Johnson was just a step behind on everything and never really got into a rhythm. However, if there’s a time that Louisville could use a turnaround from its star guard, its against this FSU team. Johnson actually matches up decently with Walker and Polite, and his length and athleticism will be needed on both ends of the floor.

Louisville’s second-most naturally gifted player, Samuell Williamson, has been an enigma thus far. Last week was a perfect example of how frustrating the former burger boy is. On Wednesday, Williamson dropped 15 and 11 and he was in his bag all game. Fans came away excited. Perhaps Williamson had turned a corner. If he did, it was directly into a wall. Like Johnson, it was hard to remember Williamson even being out there except on lackadaisical plays on defense and some offensive possessions where he was hunting for his shot. It wasn’t a total wash for Williamson on Saturday, but it was definitely a significant step down from two games ago.

It is clear that this team will go as Carlik Jones goes, and that’s fine. However, Johnson and Williamson have to be the other two guys who really step up and provide some consistency and leadership for this squad. Especially against a Florida State team that can give Louisville fits.

Find a way to combat FSU’s bigs

Oh, you mean Florida State has some massive dudes down low outside of their monster guards? Unfortunately, yes. Although 7’1″ Balsa Koprivica will present a mismatch for Louisville’s young bigs, my attention is on forward Raiquan Gray.

If you have been watching Louisville and Florida State duke it out over the past couple of years, you may remember Gray. He came in as more of a raw talent for FSU who needed to work on his body. Upon his arrival in Talahassee, Gray dropped 40 pounds. Now, his game seems to be improving on almost a nightly basis.

To me, Gray’s game is like an off-brand Zion Williamson. His overall size- 6’8″, 260-pounds- and athleticism jump out at you. In the absence of Barnes against UNC, Gray balled out and helped finish off the Tar Heels nearly single handily. He finished the game with 19 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and a block.

Gray is a stat-stuffer and an all hustle team guy. As a Louisville fan, all eyes should be on Gray and Barnes, the two players who present the biggest mismatches for the Cardinals.

Related: Some important take aways from Louisville’s loss to Miami

Finish Strong

I’d be lying to you if I said I was really concerned with the Miami loss. It sucks, but bad games happen. What I am definitely not concerned about, however, is Louisville basketball’s focus level against Florida State. Coming off an unexpected loss and returning home to play a ranked foe on Big Monday? That figures to be a game that will capture Louisville’s full attention.

Where the concern lies is in the Cards’ ability to finish games. Louisville basketball has rarely struggled to get out to a big lead regardless of competition this season. The issue has been finishing strong. That has a ton to do with developing culture, but also developing depth.

In those departments, Florida State is the antithesis of Louisville basketball. Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton described this style of play that allows teams to finish strong on Saturday.

“We try to develop a rotation where if someone does go down, turns an ankle or gets in foul trouble, that we’re able to put somebody in there and they deliver,” Hamilton said after the North Carolina victory. “I was very proud of our guys today. Sardaar (Calhoun), Evans, (Tanor) Ngom, (Nate) Jack and Malik (Osborne) and Wyatt (Wilkes), that’s who we are. We win games by committee. That’s how we built our program. There’s no doubt that was a culture win for us today. Everybody’s cheering for one another, sharing the ball, sharing playing time. No one’s jealous of one another. That’s been the strength of our program. And I’m very proud of them.”

Barnes was out, Florida State kind of mucked things up a bit against UNC, and the Seminoles just kind of outlasted the Tar Heels.

This is pretty much exactly the philosophy that has allowed Florida State to come back against the Cardinals during the Chris Mack era. In Mack’s first season, the Cards had the Seminoles dead to rights in the waning moments. However, FSU used a press to come storming back and win in overtime. Last season, FSU got ahead on the Cards and despite 32 points from Jordan Nwora, staved off a Louisville comeback. Then, in a return trip to Tallahassee, the Cardinals took a big lead into halftime only to have FSU come out and beat the bejeezus out of ’em in the second half, 50-27.

The point is this; Florida State is a tough match-up for Louisville because even if the Cards get ahead, the Seminoles are longer, more athletic, and deeper. Hamilton will keep running fresh legs at Louisville all game while the Cards are likely to play Carlik Jones and David Johnson 35+ minutes.

A win in those circumstances would be massive for Louisville basketball.