Louisville basketball is ahead of schedule in most departments. However, Chris Mack recognizes a troubling trend that needs to change.
Outside of a massive outlier against Wisconsin, Louisville basketball has worked its way through the first ten games without a blemish.
The Cardinals have defeated No.’s 257, 44, 297, 89, 76, 51, 90, 127, and 31 in the updated KenPom ratings. While Louisville’s resume is certainly nothing to write home about, the Cardinals boast three conference road wins in three tries, a win over a ranked Virginia Tech team, and victories over in-state rivals Kentucky and Western Kentucky.
The road ahead becomes increasingly difficult. However, there has not been much from the performance of this UofL team that would indicate the Cardinals wouldn’t be up for the task.
The backcourt of David Johnson and Carlik Jones is averaging 30 points and 13 rebounds a game. Louisville basketball is seeing significant contributions from its younger players. A once injury-riddled team looks to be close to healthy. Things are looking up from KenPom’s No. 26-ranked team in defensive efficiency.
This, of course, is not to say that there have not been concerns. The aforementioned Wisconsin loss is born an asterisk because the Cardinals were coming off a three-week COVID-related lay-off and without Jones. Still, every game counts regardless of how awful the circumstances.
Louisville basketball has left some to be desired on the offensive end, often struggling to pose a threat beyond the arc. Chris Mack’s team ranks 40th in offensive efficiency, and 300th in adjusted tempo.
Those are not the end all, be all statistics, but they are tools that can help us better understand the entire scope of what type of team Louisville basketball is and what it can become.
Second Half Struggles
There have been a ton of positives for this squad. However, the biggest issue, in my estimation has been Louisville’s inability to hold onto leads.
I understand that the end result is what matters. However, the concern still remains that the Cardinals have exhibited a troubling trend, particularly in the middle of second halves of games.
- In its second game of the season, Louisville held a 10-point lead against Seton Hall with 10 minutes left. The Pirates came storming back to take the lead inside three minutes. The Cardinals won, 71-70.
- Against Kentucky, Louisville was comfortably ahead from the under 16 timeout until five minutes left. The Cardinals twice took a 7-point lead against the Wildcats- a solid margin in a low-scoring rivalry game. However, UK used a surge in the waning minutes to tie things up. Although Louisville had multiple opportunities to push the lead to double-digits, it never could.
- The very next game against Boston College, Louisville basketball was comfortably ahead the entire game. The Cards led by 13 at halftime, by 17 just after intermission, and appeared to be coasting. However, the Eagles whittled that lead down to 7 twice, and it took a cold stretch from BC for the Cards to put things away. The lead didn’t totally slip away, but Louisville missed another opportunity to down an inferior conference foe.
- Louisville basketball held a 14-point lead at the under 16 timeout when it returned home to host Virginia Tech. However, the Hokies spent the rest of the game chipping away at that lead. By the end of the game, Virginia Tech had a shot at the buzzer to win. Not ideal.
- Finally, at Wake Forest on Wednesday, Louisville held a 50-34 lead over the Demon Deacons. That 16-point lead whittled down to a 55-52 Louisville lead in six minutes of game time. Louisville won 77-65.
Normally, I would take a look at these blown leads and perhaps see that there are natural ebbs and flows throughout a college basketball game.
However, this is now five occasions in Louisville’s nine wins where the Cardinals have blown a significant lead. On four of these occasions, a double-digit lead dwindled and twice, the opponent came back to tie the game or take the lead.
Mack acknowledged his team’s second half struggles in his presser on Friday.
When speaking about his team having to play with less than a 48 hour turnaround time after traveling home from Miami, Mack said he wasn’t so sure the players really cared. It’s more old guys like him that fall asleep during the second half.
“Or, some fans probably feel I do fall asleep in the second half.”
Although Mack is not likely to blame for the Cards’ second-half struggles, it is a troubling trend for this team. Under Mack, Louisville basketball has developed a habit of allowing leads to slip away. Once Louisville gets a double-digit lead, instead of smelling blood and trying to finish off the game, it feels like teams often go into cruise control.
What is to blame for this? I’d like to give a more in-depth answer, but its truly difficult to pin down.
In a close game against Kentucky, it is to be expected that teams will tighten up at the end of a rivalry game. In games against Virginia Tech and Seton Hall, both likely tournament teams, Louisville wasn’t lacking in any area. Instead, its opponents were simply executing well down the stretch.
However, lapses against Wake Forest and Boston College feel a bit more concerning.
Perhaps this is a trend that will fade away as Louisville adds some depth throughout the season. Playing two guards 35-plus minutes is never a great recipe for success.
Maybe the Cardinals will recognize that they need to keep the foot on the gas and make adjustments.
Whatever the case, this is a trend that should be addressed before it costs Louisville basketball later in the season.
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