Assessing Louisville basketball stars David Johnson and Carlik Jones’ stock entering the 2021 NBA Draft.
There’s no way Carlik Jones can get drafted in the 2021 NBA Draft, right? That was the nearly unanimous school of thought as the Louisville basketball season drew to an end.
The 5th year graduate transfer from Radford had a sensational 2020-21 season but seriously mulled over the idea of returning for a “super senior” season.
Recently, however, experts have changed their tone on Jones after an eye-popping performance at the G League and NBA Combines.
What about David Johnson? The hometown hero felt like a future lottery pick after his freshman season. Johnson showed marked improvements as a shooter and overall leader during his sophomore campaign. Still, Jones often stole Johnson’s thunder in the backcourt a season ago.
There’s also another narrative worth paying attention to when it comes to Johnson (and a little with Jones). Johnson is the first Chris mack recruited player at Louisville declaring for the draft. Yes, Jordan Nwora was drafted in the second round last year – but he obviously doesn’t fit the same criteria. Johnson was a huge part of the Super Six recruiting class in 2019 and his NBA success (or lack thereof) could fall back on Mack.
Let’s dive into both Jones and Johnson’s draft stock and assess their chances on Thursday night.
Also relevant: Jordan Nwora puts together one of the top Olympic performances
Presley Meyer
Carlik Jones
Jones has proven that he is a multi-dimensional scorer and creator at every level- including with all eyes on him at the combine.
Still, given the track record of NBA execs, they’d rather take unproven talent than known commodities with more wear on their bodies. And that’s fine. Jones is likely aware of this. He should hope to get picked up by a solid squad where he can work his way into the rotation. UFAs like Fred Van Vleet should be who Jones looks to emulate.
Prediction: Undrafted Free Agent that finds a spot on Thursday
David Johnson
Johnson is a bit more peculiar because he is going to be drafted based on fit within a system, but also how his pre-draft interviews went.
He was always considered a leader and a great “locker room guy” for Louisville basketball. However, whether or not NBA teams came to the same conclusion remains to be seen. His measurables are there, but his body of work isn’t impressive enough to push him into late first or early second-round status.
Prediction: Drafted between 40 and 55
Jacob Lane
Carlik Jones
He may not hear his name called on Thursday night but I am in the camp that Carlik Jones is going to be on an NBA roster come opening night. Despite being undersized and not coming into the league with a “specialized role” Jones has the athleticism and length to make up for his perceived weaknesses. Countless four and five-year starting guards have made the NBA after not being drafted (Fred VanVleet, TJ McConnell, Ryan Arcidiacano, Markus Howard, Bryn Forbes) so it’s not like it’s impossible to think of him finding a role.
What makes Jones so special is not only his versatility and scoring but his steady-handedness and ability to avoid bad plays. Jones has averaged over 30 minutes per game throughout the entirety of his college career, maintaining a 2:1 assist to turnover margin while scoring over 15 points per night. Whether it was the Big South or the ACC Jones always was able to find his comfort zones and completely take over control of a game. While that wouldn’t be asked in large doses at the next level, you’d be crazy to think a team with playoff aspirations, or even a team rebuilding their culture, couldn’t trust Jones for 8-10 minutes a night.
He’s not going to be a 10-15 year superstar, but Jones will provide great value as an undrafted player and likely signs a two-way deal heading into summer league.
Prediction: Undrafted, signs Two-Way with Toronto Raptors
David Johnson
“Potential” is the buzzword when it comes to David Johnson. If his 2021 NBA Draft stock is any indication of where teams think that potential lies long-term, it’s not a great sign. Many saw Johnson as being a fringe first-rounder when he entered the draft and now according to most NBA Draft analysts he’s likely to be a back-half of the second-round guy. After a solid combine, Johnson hasn’t garnered any extra attention. He’s had plenty of workouts but hasn’t gained much traction in terms of first-round demand.
Sigh.
Look, Johnson honestly should’ve come back for one more year. It would’ve been his team and the new offensive scheme would’ve allowed him to show off a more NBA-ready game. Unfortunately, Johnson doesn’t get that choice and now he’s going to find himself in a one-year prove-it situation; And honestly, I’m not so sure that’s a good thing right now.
Guys drafted in the back half of the second round typically get one-year (sometimes two years) two-way deals. That gives them 45 days in their first season with the NBA club (two-way guys split time with the NBA team and G-League team) to prove they have the ability to be a long-term fit – even if it means a year or two of seasoning.
Johnson needs the right fit in order to develop. Look for someone who has a strong development system or a rebuilding team to draft him (i.e, San Antonio, Toronto, Boston, etc).
Prediction: Drafted #49 overall by the Brooklyn Nets
