Louisville basketball got off to a hot start in 2020. Now, the Cardinals will face more obstacles than just rescheduling games after a long layoff.
Just as quickly as Louisville basketball got in four straight games, three others have since been canceled. We knew there were likely to be stoppages in this weird pandemic-ridden season. However, as it is coming to fruition, the reality is still hard to swallow.
After a quick start to the season, things have come to a screeching halt amid more positive tests for Louisville basketball. As mentioned, three consecutive games have been postponed. Most recently, a matchup with NC State was halted due to “positive tests, subsequent quarantining, and contact tracing” at UofL.
Ten days and counting since playing a game, Mack is tasked with getting his young and inexperienced team back into “basketball shape” before taking the floor again on December 22nd.
Now that we have an update as to why games aren’t being played, here are four questions facing Louisville basketball.
#1 – How will missing three straight games impact play?
After discovering positive tests that were classified as “tier 1,” Louisville has postponed games against UNCG, Wisconsin, and NC State. There have been limited basketball activities during that time. With Louisville already being a young team, one has to wonder how it impacts them moving forward.
The schedule doesn’t get any easier. After starting with four teams ranked outside the top 50 of the KenPom rankings, Louisville faces Pittsburgh and Kentucky next. It’s obvious that a pause in play is going to have an effect on Louisville, but the question until they take the floor will be how much of an impact.
With depth already an issue, Mack must worry about how this will impact his team’s ability to play shorthanded. In the first four games, 6 players played 25 or more minutes with three averaging over 30 minutes.
There’s also the fact that UofL is a young team that needs all the practice they can get. Without practice reps, freshmen won’t get the necessary time with coaches, which could play a role in overall execution.
Those games will be against Pittsburgh (on the road), Kentucky, and Boston College. Those are three opponents more than capable of beating Louisville. I’m by no means predicting three losses, but I think it’s safe to say that these aren’t matchups against Evansville (KenPom #315) and Prairie View A&M (#305). Had there been no schedule pause, I’d feel much more comfortable with the thought of this tough stretch. Now, however, I feel these games are more up for grabs.
Depending on how much time it takes to return to full strength, I’d expect to see fatigue and rust. Will it lead to lost games? That remains to be seen. Chris Mack hasn’t made excuses, but if he was forthcoming, I think he’d tell you this is a big concern.
#2 – How much healthier will Louisville be?
The biggest question mark overall for Louisville basketball now is the same one that has existed since the season began; Just how healthy are they?
Louisville was without Malik Williams, Charles Minlend, and Josh Nickelberry during the four-game bubble. Louisville only had nine healthy scholarship players. That got worse when Samuell Williamson went down with a dislocated toe; an injury that was obviously extremely concerning moving forward.
The pause in basketball activities bought Louisville a couple of extra days to get their guys closer to returning. Mack provided an update on this mid-week. Here are a few of his comments on the status of injured Cardinals.
On Samuell Williamson:
“How he would have reacted just a few days after dislocating that toe is anyone’s guess. He’s been doing workouts here and we expect the next time that we lace them up he will be ready to go.”
On Josh Nickelberry:
“I know I feel like I have been evasive a little bit, but he has a couple of setbacks in his therapy early on in recovering from the knee. We were trying to sort of figure out where that would put him. We weren’t trying to mislead anybody but we have done a few different things with his knee in hopes that he has turned the corner. I still can’t really give you a timeline other than we’re hopeful it’s sooner rather than later. We’re hopeful in the next couple of weeks.“
On Charles Minlend:
“It looked like he was a little bit slower early on in recovery from that MCL but I think over the last week or so it’s feeling much, much better. He’s a ways away from being on the court.”
We really don’t have any understanding of who tested positive, so outside of Mack’s injury update, there wasn’t an update on anyone else. Assuming everyone is able to bounce back there’s hope that the pause won’t go unused. Getting healthy is of the utmost importance for the Cards and while you would rather be playing, this could be a major silver lining.
#3 – Can freshmen keep overachieving?
The most surprising thing about the 4-0 start for Louisville this season, without question, has been the play of its “freshmen.” Whether it be Dre Davis, JJ Traynor, or even redshirt freshman Jae’Lyn Withers, all have been better than advertised.
Chris Mack spoke about his team through the first four games, saying:
“I think that some players that didn’t really have much experience, gained some valuable experience in a very, very short period of time. Whether you win or you lose, you always, as a coach, as a program, as a team, want to continue to try to improve your team. We have very inexperienced players in a lot of areas, so it was good to see them have positive experience. I thought one of the games, we didn’t play very well. We were able to learn from it and respond from it. But we’ve got a long way to go. I think our players recognize that. But again, glad our younger guys got some experience.”
As Mack alluded to, having just eight healthy scholarship players forced a lot of guys into prominent roles quicker than expected. That led to a lot of learning on the fly.
The thing about confidence is that it can be fickle. Louisville was fortunate to play four games in eight days allowing for momentum and confidence to build. With a week off and limited basketball activities taking place, could we potentially see struggles once the Cards return to the floor?
If we do, Louisville will have to overcome those issues against much better competition than what they faced in the bubble.
#4 – When will Louisville play next?
Since the NC State game was postponed, Louisville may not play a game until December 22nd. That would mean the Cards would go 22 days without playing a game since they last took the court.
I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to see that that is a less than ideal circumstance. This leads you to believe there could be some schedule shifting that takes place.
Louisville obviously has to be free of the virus first, but adding another game should be a possibility. We’ve seen teams add games left and right this season as others have gotten canceled. With so many schools in the region, one would hope that could happen.
“I don’t want to say that door is completely shut by any means,” said Mack on potentially rescheduling games. “So, again, flexibility, versatility and being able to pivot and play someone new – seems like it’s happening all over the country. What’s on paper and the dates that are set, may not be set. We may end up playing a different opponent, who knows?”
We’re set for an interesting couple of days/weeks on Floyd Street.
