After a disappointing point tally from the first six matches, does Racing have what it takes to turn its season around?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
There are 22 league matches in this NWSL season, so things don’t neatly divide up into quarters. Therefore, I had to decide whether to end the first quarter after 5 or 6 matches.
After Louisville played probably its best end-to-end match of the season in its 5th match against OL Reign, but only sat on 4 points, I decided to end the quarter after the next match.
This pretty much guaranteed that the result of that match would determine the tone for this analysis.
I posted a preview in which I labeled the match a “Show Me” one. What they showed was their worst performance so far this season, and that, while they are “better” and “improved”, it still isn’t good enough. During the first two seasons, I measured their play on somewhat of a relative scale. For example, I tended to rate their performances in the first season based on the fact that they were an expansion club. In the second season, I graded them on a curve based on their youth and inexperience playing as a unit with a third coach in two seasons.
Frankly, I am tired of giving this team too much leeway when it comes to rating performances. I received almost universal criticism for rating the players poorly in their 2-0 loss to Portland. I’ve attempted to make my case on that match several times, but nobody seems to want to listen. I should probably then give another warning at the beginning of this piece: If you are pleased with how this team is performing AND accumulating points, DO NOT READ FURTHER. You have been warned.
Playing better, getting worse results
It is an inarguable fact that Racing is worse off from a points perspective after six matches than their previous two seasons.
After six matches in 2021, their point tally was 7, and after six matches in 2022 their point tally was eight. They currently sit on 4 points and those 4 points are 100% fair.
Anybody who sees this team play can tell that for stretches they can play useful football. They just don’t play well consistently and at the right times.
Another annoying aspect of this team so far this season is that they frequently seem on the verge of being a good team, only to fall off the precipice when things get tough. If soccer was played with figure skating-style judges, there would be times when their performances would yield a 9 or 10. However, these good spells of play are usually preceded or followed by the team picking themselves up off of the ice from a fall.
If you’ve attended as many press events as I have, you would surely be sick of hearing that the team is “almost there” except for a few “individual errors”.
I too would be 20 pounds lighter if I ate better, but here I sit typing this with those extra 20 pounds. It’s an excuse I tire of hearing.
Let’s briefly dive into each of the first six matches where I will point out the best bit, the worst bit, and an explanation/excuse I heard from a player/coach/fan about why they didn’t pick up all 3 points.
Dash 0 – Racing 0
Best Bit: Katie Lund made a fantastic double save in the second half to keep a clean sheet
Worst Bit: General lack of offensive cohesion during the entire match
Excuse: It was the first match/Jae Howell was injured/Houston is too hot
Racing 2 – Spirit 2
Best Bit: Ary Borges’ fantastic equalizer
Worst Bit: Falling behind in the first half by two goals
Excuse: Too windy for a soccer match/Jae Howell not available to start
Angel City 2 – Racing 2
Best Bit: Racing dominate the first 40 minutes and lead by two goals at half
Worst Bit: Pretty much all of the second half, but especially giving up another goal to Sav McCaskill
Excuse: Surprise player absences/ lack of viable subs
Thorns 2 – Racing 0
Best Bit: When the 3rd Thorns goal was ruled out by VAR due to a handball
Worst Bit: Giving up a goal on a counter from the first possession of the match
Excuse: Pikkujämsä injured herself during the build-up to the first goal/Individual errors/Portland is too good and Racing shouldn’t be expected to win
Bonus Commentary: Here is what the fan analysis after the match sounded like to me: “It was a good performance because we played well after giving up the first goal, better after giving up the second goal, and even better after a third goal was ruled out even though Racing’s defense was awful on that play.”
Racing 2 – OL Reign 2
Best Bit: The entire first half which was probably Racing’s best ever half of football
Worst Bit (Tie): Lund giving up a needless penalty and DeMelo getting needlessly sent off
Excuse: Individual errors/poor decision making
Pride 1 – Racing 0
Best Bit: When the final whistle blew, and I could turn off the match
Worst Bit: The pathetic first half effort
Excuse: DeMelo suspended/lack of energy
As you can see the results were suboptimal, but there was at least some variety in the excuses. Every single team has to deal with injuries, suspensions, errors and periods of play where things aren’t going your way. I have never seen a team be more ready to point to excuses than Racing.
Can Racing turn things around?
Theoretically, yes, but it would be in the face of all available current evidence. In my opinion, and possibly only mine, this combination of players/tactics/style doesn’t produce enough results. At times it is downright a joy to watch this team play, but I am to the point of where I would rather watch paint dry for 90 minutes if they ultimately ended up with 3 points.
Maybe I have made this following point inelegantly in the past, but I will give it one more try.
Alternatively, maybe I have made it well and people just don’t want to hear it.
One more time: Racing is not good enough to pick the style in which they want to win.
The Barcelona’s, Manchester City’s and Bayern Munich’s of the world get to say “we are going to win, and this is the way that we’re going to win.” They are so talented and well-drilled that they could call their shots like they are playing 8-ball in a pool hall. Their opponents know how they are going to play, and those elite clubs tell them “Try to stop us”. They are predictable and ruthless and effective. Racing is merely predictable.
Every single club that faces Racing knows how they will play. They still almost made the Reign pay, but the Reign being a well-coached, experienced team never lost their cool and waited for what inevitably happens in every Racing match: an individual mistake or loss of nerve.
The fact is that Racing has yet to prove that they have 90 minutes of well-disciplined, critical-mistake-free football in them. All of the evidence points to the fact that Racing may play well in stretches, but if you take your opportunities, they’ll end up beating themselves, or at least not do enough to beat you.
There are constant discussions in the fan base about style. I remain unconvinced that this style is a formula for success for Racing.
Racing likes to press opponents high up the pitch. When it works, it is highly effective. When it doesn’t work, I believe it is more prone to failure than most other tactics. When the first level of Racing’s high press is broken, too often the midfield is easy to bypass and before you know it, your defenders are out of position and on their heels. It’s not a great recipe for success, especially for a team prone to individual mistakes.
In football, speed is a great mistake eraser and mistake exploiter. I wouldn’t necessarily say that this team is blessed with great speed, especially defensively. Therefore, it only takes one mistake to expose it. Being a pragmatist myself, I would like to see a little more tactical pragmatism and at least some sort of variation in tactics so that the press isn’t always so vulnerable to counterattack.
There is also some belief in the fanbase that the pressing is what kickstarts the offense. That could be true to some extent, but let me just show you where the goals come from:
In its history, Racing has scored a grand total of 6 goals directly from pressing. The section labeled “In transition” could potentially come from pressure, but not a high press. You’ll notice that the overwhelming majority of goals come when Racing has firm possession (36 goals from combined green slices). If Racing’s intent of the high press is to create goals, I don’t think I would call it an overwhelming success. There are many other reasons to play a high press too, but don’t let anyone tell you that it is directly resulting in many goals.
Moving on to keeping possession, I think it’s fair to say that Racing have been hit or miss at this during the season and the new players aren’t quite on the same page as the returning ones.
Kanu, Wang (returning, but with only a handful or appearances), and Borges have been particularly wasteful with the ball recently in attack. Don’t look at the possession stats, they are a complete waste of time. Look at big chances created (Racing is tied for dead last with 3) and goals (Racing is 10th out of 12th) to see what they are doing with possession.
Want to know how Houston has only scored 3 goals in 6 games and still has 6 six points? They don’t give up many goals. There is more than one way to get points in this league.
The players on this club are talented enough to win and several of them are proven winners in the NWSL and elsewhere, but there is something about this team that doesn’t gel on the pitch. By all accounts, this team is a wonderful group of women who like and care about each other. It would be a terrific story for Louisville if all of the great things about the club coalesced into a winning team on the pitch. It would be heartwarming to see a team that really likes each other and wants to represent the city with pride go out and win a bunch of matches and become the talk of the town. I would love to write about that.
However, at this point, I would settle for the team being indifferent to each other and about the city if it meant winning. In the few times I have spoken to or listened to interviews with new Racing GM Ryan Dell, he strikes me as a man with a plan, but also not the type of guy who is very patient with losing. I say this team has until the summer transfer window opens in July to turn things around or expect changes.
Maybe they have what it takes to turn the tide, but it would fly in the face of all previous evidence that points to the fact that this team is next to last in the table with a grand total of zero wins this season.
I won’t speak for anyone else, so let me reiterate that I am getting very sick of hearing how close this team is to winning. I just want them to win, by any means necessary. Every player on this club is a delight to speak with. I would trade that for eleven dirty footballers who hated my guts if it meant winning. By my luck, I will get the worst of both worlds if any players read this: the nicest group of women you could ever meet…who also hate my guts. Hey, if I have to turn into a full wrestling heel and get everyone on the team, the club and the fans to hate me in order to light a fire under them to win, I will happily do it.
Are there any positives?
Absolutely. It would be somewhat dishonest of me not to share that in their first five matches, Racing played a really tough schedule. They have only played at home twice and could have conceivably won those matches. They fought back bravely against Washington to get a point at home and if Lund and DeMelo just kept their heads, that OL Reign match would have been a victory too.
DeMelo is even better this year and doesn’t have to carry as much of the load. Howell and Davis are better. Erceg and Pickett are as advertised. Ary Borges has been mostly good. Thembi Kgatlana is probably going to get a start soon and by all accounts will add some much-needed team speed up front. Elli Pikkujämsä has been excellent when on the pitch and should be returning soon.
Optimists have plenty to look forward to. If Racing can play an effective high press for longer stretches, I am sure that will work too. The season is not lost by a long shot, I just can’t tell you that the first stretch has been anything other than a very clear failure.
