Michael Shaw and Zach Allen-Kelly close out Racing Louisville’s inaugural season with more sure-to-be-wrong prognostications.
This week Racing has the rather unusual opportunity to play a home-and-away set of matches against NJ/NY Gotham. The match on October 1st was postponed due to protests around player safety issues (to get caught up on those issues please read Bekki Morgan’s piece here.)
Let’s jump right in:
Michael’s first prediction: Racing plays a strong starting XI at home then goes full change on the rematch in New Jersey.
Michael: Gotham needs 2 pts to secure a playoff spot and could still finish as high as number 2 in the table. Zach, what do you think Racing’s strategy will be for the final two matches? Play your best XI or get a look at some different players like Vanessa Kara who just scored a brace for the Dominican Republic?
Zach: I don’t think they should completely give up on trying to win the next two games, but I would like to see some minutes from players we haven’t seen much of like Kara. If you get 2 goals and an assist for your national team, I think you’ve earned some minutes on your club team.
Zach’s first prediction: Carli Lloyd finds the back of the net in her final professional regular-season game on Sunday.
Michael: Since I predicted that Racing goes all change for the reverse fixture in NJ I’m going to agree. As for the home match on Thursday, the big-name national team players have been a good attendance draw for Racing. I think Racing keeps her scoreless in Louisville, but she scores in the home match. Thursday could also be a new attendance record, but I bet being a weeknight keeps it just short.
Michael’s second prediction: We will see a Portland v Washington in the NWSL Final on November 20th.
However, my preferred match-up is Reign v Gotham. I want a chance to see Rapinoe and the Gotham fans seem cool. Several Racing fans, including myself have been enjoying playful banter with Gotham fans on Twitter. It sure beats the mean spirited “discussions” that happen with several player stans.
Zach: I predict Portland v Reign. I would most want to see Portland v Courage, but at this point NCC may not even make the playoffs. I would think Chicago would probably travel the best followed by Portland. In general I’ve been surprised by how well pretty much everyone has traveled this season. Do you think most of that is actual traveling fans or semi-local fans of other teams going to games?
Michael: That’s an interesting question. I think the overwhelming majority are true traveling fans, but I could be wrong. One of my pet peeves when watching NFL broadcasts is when the announcers say the Steelers fans or Packers fans travel well. No they don’t, there are just Steelers and Packers fans everywhere. I think there could be local fans of some other NWSL teams, but I think most of them have now adopted Racing. They could still have a second favorite team if they followed the league prior to this year.
Zach’s second prediction: The final will set the NWSL attendance record for Lynn Family Stadium.
Michael: The last number that Racing published was 4500 tickets sold. Once the two finalists are determined, I think we will see another boost. Spirit v Houston is probably the doomsday scenario for attendance.
Zach: Cheap direct flights from DC to SDF at least…
Michael’s third prediction: Parker Goins and Kirsten Davis fill 2 FW roster spots and at least 3 current FW won’t be on the roster next year.
Michael: For a little bit of background, Kristen Davis was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NWSL College draft by Racing and Parker Goins was drafted in the third. This year Davis has 14 goals and 6 assists in 16 games and Goins has 8 goals and 8 assists in 16 games.
Zach: Solid prediction.
Zach’s third prediction: Racing turns over more than 50% of its roster next year.
Michael: No way it’s that high. Racing currently only has 5 draft picks. I think 3 of last year’s picks will make the team. The roster can be 24 to 28 based on last year’s rules. That would mean that you would need 5 other changes. If the new CBA includes free agency it’s possible, but without it, I’m not sure the quality will be available.
Zach: With a new coach I think that’s completely realistic. You mentioned the draft picks and players that haven’t signed yet, there are also trades.
Michael: You have to have some roster consistency in my opinion. I will buy you your choice of Vamos Morados gear if they have over 50% turnover. Would you rather have that gear signed by Benton, or remain unsoiled by his autograph?
Zach: Hoodie, no signature, please. I just think fans are used to an unusual amount of roster stability from Louisville City. They need to be prepared for the roster to look much different next year for Racing.
Michael: You have to remember the demand for talent is also going to see a 20% increase with two new teams. That’s 50 new players that wouldn’t have theoretically been worthy of a roster spot last year.
Zach: Which is going to make rosters less stable rather than more.
Michael: There is no way Zach is winning that bet, but everyone should buy a Vamos Morados hoodie anyway. One last question, who is your player of the season?
Zach: Injuries have made this question much harder. Well actually easier, it has to be Emily Fox. I feel like Bonner was on track to be my pick but she just hasn’t played enough of the season at this point.
Michael: I guess I can see that. The defense definitely played better with her out there, but I would rank Fox ahead of her regardless. I’m going to go a bit outside the box (actually inside the box) and go Michelle Betos. I think her ability early in the season to keep Racing in games kept the fans behind the team and willing to ride out a tough first season. If we had seen a bunch of 5-0 or 6-1 losses I don’t know what the psyche of the team or fan base would have been.
That’s it for this season. Zach and I will return during the off-season to incorrectly predict the NWSL draft selections for Racing.
