Racing Louisville made some bold moves in the Summer Transfer window to secure the playoffs for the first time but are still on the outside looking in.
Racing endured a summer packed full of league and cup matches, but the final six matches will define the season. Racing faired as they typically do with some highs and lows. They don’t control their own destiny but will have plenty to say when it comes to making a push for the playoffs.
Racing finds itself in the 9th spot in the table with three teams within 3 points of overtaking them, and within relative striking distance of the three teams above them with Portland playing itself into relative unsafety sitting in sixth at 27 points. Racing accumulated 7 points from its most recent seven matches and now sit on 22 for the season. That isn’t great, but it wasn’t an absolute disaster. They can only feel extremely disappointed in the home result to Seattle.
The Matches
Seattle 1 – Racing 1
Best Bit: Reilyn Turner scores an equalizer with stoppage time running out and Racing steals a point from the Reign after being down to 10 players for most of the match.
Worst Bit: Arin Wright loses her head in the early stages and gets a red card for the denial of a clear goal-scoring opportunity while also conceding a penalty.
Takeaway: As I stated on my site, this team’s heart hasn’t been a question, but their heads sometimes let them down.
Racing 0 – Bay FC 1
Best Bit: When the match was over, and everyone got to get some relief from the oppressive midday June heat.
Worst Bit: Baggett commits a penalty in virtually her first action of the match.
Takeaway: It was a dreadful match on a dreadful day and a single mistake decided the outcome.
North Carolina 3 – Racing 1
Best Bit: Racing take a rare lead against the Courage on a fine goal from Turner.
Worst Bit: The entire second half is Racing’s worst half of the season and North Carolina easily has the match in the bag before the 70th minute.
Takeaway: The Courage continue to be a nightmare matchup for Racing with no sign of that ever changing.
Summer Cup Matches
Best Bits: Racing get to showcase some different players, especially Jordyn Bloomer in goal.
Worst Bits: Racing misses the knockout stage in the NWSL x Liga MX Cup and don’t even make the final for The Women’s Cup due to a dreadful loss on spot kicks to Parlmeiras.
Takeaway: Racing work on some tactical things but discover that they are woefully short on reliable attackers without DeMelo and Kanu.
Racing 3 – Red Stars 1
Best Bit: Racing’s new additions are involved in the goals, and Racing puts 3 past Chicago.
Worst Bit: Chicago get back in the match briefly, but it’s hard to find much wrong in this performance.
Takeaway: The Chicago Red Stars are not much of a threat without Mal Swanson, but that is hardly news.
Racing 2 – Seattle 3
Best Bit: The set pieces work great and Racing scores on two of them.
Worst Bit: Defending on the set pieces and errors mean that Racing leaves the match empty-handed.
Takeaway: The officiating was atrocious, but not completely one-sided so Racing has no other option than to accept the result.
Bay 1 – Racing 0
Best Bit: Absolutely nothing. It was a dreadful performance.
Worst Bit: Racing records zero interceptions in the match and the midfield conceded virtually all of the pitch to Bay in the second half.
Takeaway: For all of its additions, Racing still looks lost when DeMelo is unavailable.
Racing 2 – Angel City 1
Best Bit: Balcer and Beckie score their first goals for Racing.
Worst Bit: An uncharacteristic giveaway by Erceg puts Racing in an early hole.
Takeaway: It is the first time in quite a while that Racing win a match by effectively defending a narrow lead through absorbing pressure.
Big Changes, Mixed Results
You absolutely have to hand it to Ryan Dell and the coaching staff. They made some big decisions because they knew that the status quo was not working. Racing lost Carson Pickett, club captain Jae Howell, and Reilyn Turner during the summer transfer window (and Yukka Kurosaki too, but she never played a part in any Racing match). However, they added what they sorely lacked which was NWSL-proved talent. The additions of Bethany Balcer, Janine Beckie, and Courtney Petersen achieved closing that gap (Ángela Barón will likely be part of the plans next season). The key question is “will it be enough to make the playoffs?” At this point, your guess is as good as mine, but I remain hopeful. The loss to Bay in San Jose hurt the most, but with six matches left the gap is not impossible to close. In my opinion, this is the best shape that the roster had been in four seasons. With the recent elimination of the draft through the new CBA, teams that don’t have a ton of pending free agents are likely in an advantageous position (that is arguable for teams in bigger cities, but it definitely suits Racing at this point). Racing’s center back corps could be a little thin if Wright, Erceg and Pikkujämsä all don’t resign but other than that obviously pretty glaring need, the roster should be in decent shape heading into 2025. If the big swing doesn’t work for 2024, it still puts Racing in a decent position for next season.
Make no mistake, these moves are meant to increase Racing’s chances of making the playoffs this season. If they had not made any changes I would be pretty down on their chances. These roster additions and subtractions make it much more feasible in my opinion. Racing needed goal scorers. The loss of Howell hurts very much off the pitch, but on the pitch, it likely helps both her and Racing. She could have very easily found herself the odd player out after the summer break because Flint proved to be a very slightly better defensive option in midfield, and Borges offers more going forward. I think Jae now finds herself in a better situation for the long-term success of her career. Balcer and Beckie have already scored goals and their experience surely helps. Reilyn Turner’s minutes were going to be cut with the addition of Balcer and the revelation of Fischer’s recent performances. The move to Portland could work out for Reilyn as well, but she might not be as fortunate as I expect Howell to be. Pickett left for personal reasons, but Petersen is a fine replacement at left back, which allows Wright to move back into the center of defense. Ellie Jean deputized well, so she will definitely be fighting for more playing time as the season progresses.
It is still too early to tell if these moves will work out, but 6 points from four matches isn’t bad. I don’t know if 9 from six will get it done, but it could. 10-12 would make me feel better about things.
The Way Forward
If Racing are to be successful, they are almost certainly going to have to win matches by scoring multiple goals. In their current set up, I just don’t know if they have a clean sheet in them. Milliet has frequently been pressing up high and in the Angel City match, their formation looked more like a 3-4-3 than the traditional 4-3-3 of earlier in the campaign. Pickett did that from time to time, but it never looked like a formation shift until recently. I don’t get too caught up in formations and in the Angel City match, the wide players definitely did they fair share of defending. The inverted full back is a popular trend in world football, but that isn’t what is happening here, for the most part. What is happening, using the Angel City match as the example, is that Yanez appears to be emphasizing the Milliet-DeMelo relationship on the right side. Look at the contrast between the right-right sided paring and the left side of Petersen-Beckie in the average position graph from Opta.
Beckie and Petersen connected often enough, but the majority of their connections were in the defending half while Milliet and DeMelo’s connections were more progressive and in the attacking half. That is great for the attack, but leaves Racing clearly short at the back during counters. What Racing has been clearly lacking is goals, and this set up helps them, but there are tradeoffs. I personally don’t think there is any reason that Beckie and Milliet can’t learn to connect on Beckie’s preferred side and maybe that is what Coach Yanez is banking on. Racing has attacking flexibility, and they might have to prioritize it in the short term. Such flexibility means that the defending connections unfortunately weaken to a degree. I think there will be matches where Milliet will be asked to defend more and the upcoming match against North Carolina may be such a case. I like Sears on the right as a counterattacking option when Racing know that they aren’t going to see much of the ball. The team now has tactical flexibility in its attack, but experience has told us that the defense tends to have at least one mistake in them per match. The goal with have to be to keep it limited to one.
The Midfield Will Tell the Story
It is probably painfully obvious, but in most matches the game is decided in the middle of the pitch. The recent loss against Bay FC was a glaring example of that. Racing struggled to win the field position battle in that match and many times when Bay pinned them in, there was no way out other than a long clearance which inevitably came right back in. I think DeMelo’s best position is in the midfield. She has unfortunately proven that her propensity to pick up yellow cards doesn’t lessen out wide. Marisa DiGrande has performed well in the CAM role, but I think DeMelo is better there. I don’t think she has to be there in every match, but in matches where you expect to concede some possession (and I think Racing’s coaches need to honest with themselves here because it absolutely is going to happen against certain teams) she is better suited in the midfield. To be fair, she is still all over the place (in a positive manner) when she plays wide, but to her opponents she presents a fiercer proposition than DiGrande when they have possession. I have to think that opponents are probably rather pleased when they see her deployed wide. She is still dangerous, but it is the lesser of two evils in their minds.
Borges’ return has been very good for Racing, and she seems to be back to full match fitness now. In recent matches Flint and Borges have almost indistinguishable heatmaps/touch maps, which I think you would expect to see based on Racing preferring a “double pivot” (a term that I don’t particularly like, but it is widely used). I think it can work effectively, but I also think one of its weaknesses is that when you get pinned in, it limits the counterattacking and counter possessing outlets. It leaves you with mostly horizontal passing options when possession is won deep, and when some counter possession is key. It also tends to leave you short when the counter progresses quickly because a natural box-to-box midfield tends to get more involved in those attacks. Borges has the assets of a box-to-box midfielder, as does Flint but I think they tend to decide to defend as a binary unit and attack as a binary unit where a more complementary approach might be needed in some cases. That could be by design, but in a match where Racing gets pinned in for long periods of time, it doesn’t work, especially when DeMelo isn’t playing in the midfield.
The Clearest Path to the Playoffs
The simplest way to get the needed points is to win as many matches as possible, but wins against Utah, Portland, and San Diego would be the most useful. It would serve the dual purpose of getting points and preventing any point accumulation for those teams. The other opponents (North Carolina, Washington and Kansas City) would be less damaging if they were to be losses. Since North Carolina is the first team on the upcoming schedule, a point in that one would be just fine considering Racing’s lack of success of them. I think it will likely take 10 points, but it is just as important that it be the “right” 10. The Utah match is the must win match in this scenario. If they don’t win that one, it will be hard to see a clear path to a playoff spot without a lot of help.
