Racing Louisville started the 2025 season in a similar fashion to previous ones, so is there room for hope?
There are 26 matches in this NWSL season, so things don’t neatly divide up into quarters. I decided to end the “first quarter” after seven matches to see how Racing Louisville rebounded from a tough draw in Portland. I think that ended up being the correct decision. Racing put on one of their better performances in recent memory in Houston, so this review will have a more upbeat tone. For more downbeat (and definitely offbeat) coverage you can visit my site Fleur-de-lis FC.com.
I didn’t start the season with high expectations for this team. That hasn’t changed because while there has always been evidence that they can win the odd match here and there, they’ve never shown any real ability to win consistently. I will say that I do have higher hopes based on the recent performances. If you can separate your hopes from expectations, I think you can be a more centered person. I will put the self-improvement stuff to the side now and get into the results.
The Matches
Racing 1 – Courage 1
Best Bit: Emma Sears opens Racing’s account for the season.
Worst Bit: The match is significantly delayed due to weather and barely anyone is there to witness the match.
Takeaway: Opening matches are tough to evaluate, and the conditions make it difficult to read too much into the draw.
Bay 2 – Racing 0
Best Bit: When the whistle blew the match complete.
Worst Bit: Sav DeMelo goes down in a scary moment but will ultimately be cleared to play after a few weeks.
Takeaway: Racing does not match up well against Bay.
Stars 0 – Racing 1
Best Bit: Emma Sears’ deflected goal.
Worst Bit: Once again, the conditions were terrible so the match wasn’t a very good watch.
Takeaway: Racing should petition to play Chicago 26 times a season.
Racing 0 – Spirit 2
Best Bit: Racing hangs tight in the first half with a short-handed Spirit team.
Worst Bit: The Spirit throw on game-changing subs to start the second half and win comfortably.
Takeaway: Racing isn’t ready to consistently compete with the top teams in the league.
Racing 1 -Wave 4
Best Bit: VAR catches an officiating error to give Racing a penalty which Ary Borges converts.
Worst Bit: San Diego completely outplays and outclasses Louisville in the second half. Worser Bit: Thunder is cancelled so the attendance is lower than expected.
Takeaway: Racing is missing too many key players, and their replacements aren’t quite ready for the big stage.
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Thorns 3 – Racing 3
Best Bit: Racing has an offensive explosion in the first half after being rather anemic in attack in the first 5 matches.
Worst Bit: Racing concedes, and Portland converts a penalty deep into 2nd half stoppage time.
Takeaway: Both sides are mad at the officials (which probably means they did alright), but Racing loses its composure (especially Borges who draws a multi-game ban).
Dash 1 – Racing 2
Best Bit: The combination of DeMelo to Sears on the go-ahead goal is a thing of beauty.
Worst Bit: The weather delays make it so the match ends after midnight EDT, and I need my beauty sleep.
Takeaway: Racing gets its first come from behind win on the road since 2022 and look pretty good doing it.
Who is the “real” Racing Louisville?
I don’t think anyone knows who the “real” Racing is at this point. Are they a top 4 contender? Almost certainly not, but are they a playoff contender? Maybe. Are they a contender to finish in the bottom 3? Also, maybe. However, Racing is starting to seem like they are getting their players healthy and potentially put in the correct spots. Losing Bethany Balcer for an indeterminate amount of time has impacted them to some degree, but I was never convinced that she was irreplaceable.
To my eyes (and the stats that I trust: Goals added and Goals-Expected Goals) she was pretty average. One could use goals (8) and xG (9.44) to make your case for her being above average, but I find raw xG overly dependent on factors not in consideration and goals often more of a function of the surroundings. There are clearly things she is very good at (like heading the ball for goals) but I never thought she completely “gelled” with the team.
Balcer has been replaced by a completely different kind of striker. Kayla Fischer is the type of striker that isn’t limited to solely being in that role. That means she is likely to score less goals, but that doesn’t mean she can’t be or isn’t already as valuable (or more so) in a different way. She covers a lot of ground and if Racing believes their press is the way to victory in most matches (my mileage varies on that one) she provides much needed value there. Racing seems very likely to stick with its pressing nature, so Kayla fits that. She has also started to score, finding the net twice in the last two matches. Sears in on pace for double-digits and if that trend holds, they will replace Balcer’s output while also gaining a more rounded contributor on the pitch.
Fools gold?
Of course, the wins this season have come against the 12th and 14th teams in the table. It’s too early to pigeonhole those teams into their spots, but they definitely aren’t the league’s elites. The road point against Portland looks more valuable taken out of context. Portland is currently in 5th (having played an extra match) but that point felt like 2 points lost. Based on early returns this season, I don’t think the gap at the top is as wide as it was last season, but I will need more evidence against better teams to read too much success into Racing’s 8 points.
On the other hand, things might not be as dire as I originally thought. I always reserve the right to revert back to my pessimism, but honestly 8 points isn’t embarrassing. It puts Racing in the mix for the playoffs if they can go on a hot streak (something they haven’t done very often). They have looked ‘league-average” in the last couple of outings. They just need some things to break their way.
And then there’s that. The “Breaks”. Racing might be the most unfortunate team that I have ever followed. A metaphorical and sometimes literal black cloud seems to follow this team around. I am not a believer in “luck”, but random chance does exist. There is something that makes you scratch you head about the number of bad things that seem to befall this team. It can’t just be luck. Whatever it is, if things can just slightly shift in their favor who knows, they might just go on a run. If I was superstitious, I would have them ditch the green kits at home (1 point out of a possible 9 in those matches). I don’t care for wearing the “alternate” color for home matches. I also wish they would ditch the whole “Go Big Purp” thing, so let’s pretend that Paige Monaghan (the coiner of that slogan) cursed them when she left for Utah for as long as they continue to use her slogan.
Bev likes to talk about the extra 1 to 2% in matches that make the difference. Racing hasn’t done themselves too many favors here, but honestly, they haven’t done themselves too much harm either. In my opinion, the only match result that could have shifted in their favor is the Portland one. While you can bicker over the official’s decision to award those penalties, I don’t think you can argue that they weren’t avoidable.
Back to the original premise…who is the “real” Racing. At this point I think I would go with the team that we saw in Houston. That may be the optimistic view, but I also think it is the most complete view of a team that is nearing full strength and playing in the style that Bev prefers. Now we just have to wait and see how that performance translates against better teams.
Is the “real” Racing good enough?
In my opinion, the answer to that question is “not yet, but maybe given time”. I still think Racing trails the upper echelon of the league when it comes to talent on the squad and on the staff, but maybe the gap isn’t as significant as I thought. Let me also warn you…anytime I say something nice and positive and even remotely optimistic about this club I am immediately smacked back down to earth by the soccer gods who laugh in my face for saying such nonsense. I must be a slow learner (not really, but for the sake of this rhetorical exercise, let’s pretend) so let’s start off with the good.
Regardless of whether or not I agree with the philosophy, I think we can say it works…sometimes. It is a philosophy that can work…sometimes. The big question is whether the times when it does work will outweigh the ones where it doesn’t? Prior to the season it was difficult for me to envision a scenario where Racing made the playoffs. It is still difficult. Before seeing this team in the first seven matches I would say that I could see one playoff scenario for every 49 that didn’t see them making it. Now I would put that closer to one in 25. It’s not impossible and further away from improbable that I thought at the outset of the season. Like this, sort of.
So what is that one scenario?
It’s probably not exactly one scenario, but here are what I picture the elements being.
- Sav Demelo playing up to her full ability, which she has shown flashes of AND
- Emma Sears reaching double-digit goals AND
- Holding the goals conceded per match average to the 1 .3-1.5 range (1.9 currently) AND
- Eight or more goal contributions from the center forward position AND
- At least 5 set piece goals AND
- No run of form worse than 1 point in 3 matches
That’s a pretty hefty list, but like I said, you could picture it.
The bad news is that you could also picture any one disaster throwing the season into complete turmoil.
So yes, theoretically the team is good enough make a run. It is also encouraging that the league might not be as top heavy this year, although that could actually make things tougher depending on who gets better/worse. It’s way too early to throw in the towel for any team, so I expect Racing to press on with a little bit of wind in their sails. They do face a tough upcoming six matches, so let’s take a look at those.
May 9th at home v Gotham-It’s tough to make much of Gotham’s form at the moment, but you need to win homes matches against beatable teams and while I think Gotham is better than Racing, they are beatable.
May 16th at home v Reign-The Reign’s form is a bit more readable. They can get points against anyone. I think this will be another good yard stick for Racing.
May 24th away v Angel City-LA’s team lost to the teams that I think they should have expected to lose to. Elsewhere, they have done well. I think points will be tough to get here.
June 6th at home v Utah-I think Racing has to get 3 points here.
June 14th away v KC-Racing play KC tough but any points here are a bonus.
June 20th at home v Orlando-For me, very unlikely to get any points against the champs.
Then there is a league break until August.
To sum things up, it will be a tough run on matches heading into the summer break, but the only thing Racing can control is how they perform on the pitch. I will return sometime in June to see how Racing dealt with the challenging schedule.
