Racing Louisville Off-season Evaluations and Early Predictions

Michael Shaw and Zach Allen Kelly take a look at the team as it stands and make some sure-to-be-wrong guesses on the upcoming season.

Let me start off with a little housekeeping. For the first season and the second season, I wrote quarterly evaluations of Racing Louisville, the 502’s NWSL team. Seven of those were published on this site. I had completed the eighth which was the 4th Quarter review for the 2022 season when the Yates Report was published outlining the extent of abuse that had occurred in the NWSL. That report put everyone in a rightfully terrible mood, and I don’t believe there was any desire by anyone to reflect on the season, since the report came out only a few days after Racing’s season ended. However, it was written. If anyone has any desire to read it, it is located on my blog Fleur-de-lis-FC.com here along with another piece that I started but didn’t finish for the reason mentioned above.

Louisville has had a busy offseason. The short version is:

• Once the club realized that they would not be getting their desired choice at number 4 in the draft, Emily Madril (who had spent time training with the first team as part of her stint with Louisville’s W League team) they traded their first-round pick for Paige Monaghan and other considerations.
• The club drafted 4 players, with the remaining picks.
• Emily Fox was traded to the North Carolina Courage for Carson Pickett and Abby Erceg.

The current roster sits at 25 players under contract(ish…Monaghan’s deal is not public yet, but sure to be announced soon).

Zach and I discussed where the team stands and various other items.

Michael: What’s your general assessment of the offseason so far? Is the team better or worse going into year 2 vs. year 3?

Zach: Well, Monday kind of threw a wrench into this answer. I was going to say that it had been a pretty quiet offseason so far. Which I think is a little welcome after last year. Even after yesterday’s trade I still feel like it’s overall a less transformative offseason than year 2. I worry about getting this deep into the offseason without signing a GM. I would really have preferred to have that position filled before the draft. I feel like we’re setting up to be in a similar situation to last season with coach Kim Björkegren where we bring in someone right before the season starts and have to make a bunch of moves during the season and potentially disrupt the team. All that said, as it stands right now I would probably prefer going into a season with this current roster than the year 2 one. The young players have another year of experience, the team now has a few veteran NWSL defenders. I think Fox is a big long-term loss but in a near-term, I do think the trade leaves the team in a slightly better position for next season.

M: I tend to agree with that assessment. I do think this team now has more goals in it than it did last week and won’t give up as many now. Players are starting to report for the pre-season (the first official practice was on Wednesday). Which returning player are you most excited to see take the next step and which new player do you think will make the biggest difference?

Z: There’s a bit of hometown bias here (hard not to root for a player that went to your high school) but I’m really excited to see Ekic take the next step. We’ve seen flashes of the brilliant player she can be (she was brilliant on loan in Australia) and I really hope this is the year we see her consistently perform at that level. I think she should get a big confidence boost from her time in Australia this winter that I hope carries into the NWSL season.

From the new players I expect to see Carson Pickett make the biggest impact out of the gate. I think she may have been both of our favorite non-Racing Louisville player last season. She’s an excellent passer, an area Racing Louisville has struggled with over their first two seasons, and possibly the best crosser in the league. Last season she led the NWSL in passing G+. She’s also a solid all-around player with no real weak points in her game, good at defending, good in attack, solid dribbler. I think she’ll be an incredible addition to the team.

M: It’s kind of mind-boggling that the Courage let her go, but I guess you could make the argument that Fox is an upgrade. She’s younger, on the national team, and potentially has a higher ceiling, but there is no argument about who has produced more to date. I just wish Louisville had Pickett on the left side and Fox on the right. It was on the table as Pickett wasn’t protected in the expansion draft for Louisville. The less said about that, the better. I am looking forward to seeing if Howell can improve as much as she did from the first part of the year compared to end of the season. As you said, we’re all in on Carson Pickett, so I will pick Thembi Kgatlana as the other player I am looking forward to seeing. This team needs a reliable goal scorer. Nadim has been one, but Kgatlana could soften her load a bit.

The team recently changed its primary logo from a lavender background to a mint one. What do you read into that if anything?

Z: It probably hints at the direction the new primary kit design will be going in. I do wish the logo had originally incorporated both colors as I think they work really well together. It’s going to be hard to top the original home kit design but if it’s going to be a mostly mint green the new design should at least look pretty solid and stand out color-wise in the league. Hopefully, all the teams finish their kits BEFORE the season starts this year so you can do the kit rankings during preseason this time.

What’s your over/under on teams that play in literal warmup kits this season?

M: I am going to be optimistic and say 1.5. Somebody will screw it up for sure, but most will be ready.

Onto predictions. One of my predictions was going to be that Fox isn’t here by the end of the next transfer window. Obviously, that’s already true. Who else is in danger of being transferred in this this or the summer window? I am going Hillary Beall. She had captained all of Western United’s matches and has a .78 Goals Against average. Somebody somewhere will take notice of that.

Also read: Meet Elijah Wynder, Louisville City’s Young Trailblazer

Z: I would have also said we could expect one of the Racing Louisville goalkeepers to possibly make a move so I agree with you on that one.

Prediction, the team does not get outscored by departing players again this season. I feel like this is kind of an easy one with the lack of departing players compared to last season, but I think we’ve seen before that there is no prediction safe enough for me to not be proven wrong.

M: I hope that’s a safe one!

What’s your prediction on the number of draft picks that make the squad? People are high on Martinez. I say 2 out of the 4.

Z: I would say Martinez almost for sure just because of the need she fills for the team. I say the team probably has another trade or two planned which will free up some space and the team signs 3 of the 4. I am personally hoping to see Riley Parker make the squad.

M: Everyone loves Riley.

Z: I predict that Racing Louisville’s leading goal scorer will be a player that did not play for the team last season.

M: I think I may part ways with you on that one. I have Davis penciled in as my top scorer, mainly because she will be available earlier than Kgatlana.

Z: Do you think Davis will benefit most from having Pickett to whip in crosses all season?

M: Potentially. She has height, but Pickett was one of the designated corner takers in North Carolina and while I would prefer Pickett taking corners and set pieces that aren’t shots-on-goal, that will have to be figured out. McDonald could benefit too. (Note: earlier in the month I tried to predict where the goals with come from for Louisville. Since Monaghan, Pickett, and Erceg were all added after that blog post, it decided to update it on Wednesday this week)

Will there be more starts by “natural” right-backs or players covering that position this year? In essence, do Milliet and Monaghan get more starts than a pure defender? I say it’s still RB by committee.

Z: I’ll break with you here and say the team will find an actual dedicated right back this season.

M: That would be my preference too, but they don’t have a proven entity yet.

Z: I feel like we both have to be on the record about the question everyone cares most about. Does Racing Louisville make the playoffs this season? I’m going to predict “no” and use my Jynx for good. I think a lot of the players they have added will need time to adjust to the league.

M: Absolutely. For me, it’s a no as well. After a couple of years following this league, I have come to the following conclusion. The things that can give you an edge like coaching stability, tactical innovation, and club infrastructure aren’t to the level where it matters yet in the NWSL. Therefore, all I feel comfortable going on is the roster in terms of talent and experience. I wouldn’t rank Louisville in the top six based on its roster, so I don’t think they will make the playoffs. However, if a few players make “the jump” their roster ranking goes up in my book.

Have any final crazy predictions?

Z: Gonna swing for the fences…Demelo is an MVP finalist!

M: Based on merit I could see it, but I don’t have much faith in the journalists who cover this league bar our friend Bekki, and unfortunately, I think they have a lot of influence over such things. Most of them are first and foremost USWNT fans and I can’t fathom them considering a player who is not getting international starts. Plus, there is no way she is even considered if Racing Louisville doesn’t make the playoffs.

My crazy prediction is that the team achieves a positive goal difference this year. I still don’t think if will be enough to make the playoffs, but it will make the matches fun.

You can find me at Fleur-de-lis FC.com and Zach on the State of Louisville podcast Vamos Morados covering Racing Louisville and Louisville City as well as Soccer City Radio.