Coming off of its best run of matches ever, is Racing Louisville finally poised to make the playoffs?
There are 26 matches in this NWSL season, so the most recent six matches comprise the “second quarter”. The NWSL is on an extended summer break until August to accommodate the women’s International break for several continental tournaments. Therefore, it is a perfect opportunity for a recap of Racing Louisville. The progress made by this team is apparent so to read the shift in tone to more upbeat (and still definitely offbeat) coverage you can visit my site Fleur-de-lis FC.com.
From my first quarter piece, I identified several things that would need to go right:
- Sav Demelo playing up to her full ability, which she has shown flashes (now second on the team in Fotmob season rating at 7.4 and at number ten in the league, with Taylor Flint at number one with 8.03)
- Emma Sears reaching double-digit goals (currently at 6, so on track for 12)
- Holding the goals conceded per match average to the 1 .3-1.5 range (at 1.7 down from 1.9)
- Eight or more goal contributions from the center forward position (at 3, but trending up)
- At least 5 set piece goals (1 free kick/5 corners already)
- No run of form worse than 1 point in 3 matches (form has been excellent)
It isn’t the only recipe for success, but it is the one that seems to be working.
The Matches
Racing 1 – Gotham 0
Best Bit: Taylor Flint’s wonder goal from outside of the 18-yard box.
Worst Bit: Nothing on Racing’s side, but Gotham were big babies.
Takeaway: Gotham wasn’t at their best, but Racing forced the poor performance out of them.
Racing 0 – Reign 1
Best Bit: I didn’t attend this match in person because it was rescheduled, so I missed a rather dull match.
Worst Bit: Racing having a measly one shot on target out of twenty attempts.
Takeaway: Racing fall right into the Reign’s trap and fail to show that they can win a match where the opponent dares them to create a goal with possession.
Angel City 2 – Racing 3
Best Bit: Racing has a four-minute stretch in the second half where both Sears and DeMelo score fine goals.
Worst Bit: Kayla Fischer gets a well-deserved red card for hair pulling and will miss the next three matches.
Takeaway: The red card makes it more difficult than it needs to be, but Racing escape LA with all three points.
Racing 3 – Utah 2
Best Bit: Racing fights back from a 0-1 deficit to regain control of the match in the 26th minute with a 2-1 lead.
Worst Bit: Utah’s opening goal takes a tough deflection off of Ellie Jean (who scores the equalizer) to find the back of the net.
Takeaway: Racing can beat teams at the bottom of the table even when they don’t play that well.
Current 4 -Racing 2
Best Bit: Racing pull within 3-2 in the 88th minute on Uchenna Kanu’s header, giving them a slight chance.
Worst Bit: Milliet’s own goal to open the scoring in the 2nd minute, which prevents Racing from getting into the tactics that they want to deploy.
Takeaway: Racing make it a match in the dying moments of the second half, but the league leaders prove too tough.
Racing 2 – Pride 0
Best Bit: Racing puts on its best collective defensive performance of the year limiting the defending champs to mostly speculative shots.
Worst Bit: On the nicest day for a home match by far, only 5600 fans show up to watch.
Takeaway: Racing finds itself in good shape to make the playoffs at the break.
Articles continues below:
Also read: More from Mike Shaw (Fleur-De-Lis FC)
How did Racing evolve into a playoff contender?
I will be the first to admit that I didn’t give this team much of a chance this season. I thought the bottom of the table was much more likely that the middle of the table. What did I miss?
Frankly, I don’t think I missed anything. On paper, this team does not or should not really threaten anyone. Everything that is working on this team seems to be intangible, or at least very difficult to measure. The collective back line is noticeably better than anyone thought, and I don’t know how anyone could have seen that coming. The rookies are good, but not so much so that they could be seen as the sole reason for success. Sears has gone up a level, but that was expected. I think my assessment comes down to a few things.
- Coaching/Tactics: Racing isn’t doing anything that different than last season, but there are doing the things that they do well, better. The press is better, especially with Fischer leading it, which is likely a happy consequence of Bethany Balcer’s absence. The set pieces are more precise and effective. Racing commits to its style and identity, which is still not always the right way to go in my opinion but seems to be working enough to get points. None of the adjustments have been earth shattering, but they seem to be working at the moment. I think teams will adjust (see Seattle), but now most teams are just as stubborn as Racing are, so when Racing plays teams that don’t like to be pressed, they always have a shot
- Team Cohesion: I don’t put too much stock in this as a way to get improvement from a team. I would rather just have better players. However, with not a whole lot of other things to point to, it sort of becomes one of the default explanations. It could just as easily go the other way with a bad run of form, but there are some key things on the pitch that we can look to. The defensive performance against Orlando was the best of the season without anyone having to put in a heroic performance. Everyone covered for each other’s mistakes. There is not higher compliment you can pay to a collective defensive effort. The other thing that I think we can look to is the integration of the rookies and how players like Janine Sonis and Fischer have stepped up their game with other players competing for minutes. Sonis has been especially good after winning back her starting spot. There doesn’t seem to be a lack of options off of the bench this year and usually the substitutes have come in and contributed well, meaning that they want to fight for the team as much as the starters do.
- The league isn’t as good this season: Orlando seems to have dropped a level and Gotham, North Carolina, Bay, and Chicago definitely have at this point in the season. Racing has taken advantage of this along with San Diego and Seattle. Only one team (Kansas City) is on pace to have more than 50 points at the end of the season. Last year four teams had at least 55 points. That means we are back to more parity. That is good for Racing, if not for the overall health of the league which needs teams that are clearly superior to attract more casual fans.
Who is contributing the most?
I know that I just got done talking about the cohesion and the collective defensive effort, but some people deserver extra special mention.
- Taylor Flint: As I mentioned earlier, she leads the league in Fotmob’s automated player ratings heading into the summer break. Some of that is due to the how the model is built, but most of that is simply because she has been really good. Her goal contributions from midfield (1 from open play/2 penalties) are a welcome addition. Don’t sleep on her 2 converted penalties. Racing seems to always be searching for a solid penalty taker, so having her be consistently available at almost any point in the match (she has played 92% of the available minutes and that includes an entire game missed) is a boon. It cannot be understated the impact that she has sitting in front of the back four. She is great on defending set pieces too. The only thing that gives Racing fans heartburn about her is that she is out of contract at the end of the season. No player is irreplaceable, but she is very nearly the exception.
- Jordyn Bloomer: Speaking of irreplaceable, I think that a healthy Katie Lund is also on that list for Racing. This issue is that she had been struggling physically even before the decision to have her go on the (not really) Season Ending Injury list. Bloomer has brought an almost equal amount of shot-stopping ability (I don’t care what any metrics say here, give me the keeper that naturally covers more of the goal) but has really brought the energy. Coincidence or not, the goals allowed with Bloomer between the post is over a half a goal/match lower. In those same matches Racing is averaging 2.1 points/match in Bloomer’s starts versus .8 points/match in the ones that Lund started. The defense has indisputably performed better since she entered the starting lineup.
- Kayla Fischer: Sometimes I feel like I lead the Kayla Fischer under appreciation brigade. One, she is an easy target for a recurring bit on my site related to yellow cards, not something she earned unfairly. Two, prior to this season she had been serviceable but not outstanding. This season she has shown how valuable she is through demonstrating the full breadth of her qualities, both good and bad. Nobody works harder on the press, and it is more successful with her in it. Plus, she started to score. Then she decided to lose her head and commit an indefensible red card by pulling an opponent’s hair. Racing managed her absence decently, by closing out the match she left with a win and winning two of the next three. That may not sound like a ringing endorsement for someone I identified as a high contributor, but she has been fantastic in several moments, sometimes taking the entire team on her back and willing them to press forward. The big question for her will be can she be just as effective with a little more restraint.
- Emma Sears: If you can have a “quiet” six goals, she has done it. She is already tied for the record for most goals in a season by a Racing player, yet there still seems to be more that she can contribute. She creates some and poaches some. On three of her goals, you could definitely argue that the assist was better than the goal. She has shown herself capable of scoring in multiple ways. I would like to see her get an assist soon. You hate to have a forward turn into a player that only contributes through scoring. This team needs goals any way they can get them, so as the top scorer she has to be in the list of top contributors.
- Bev Yanez: The leap in the performance of the team in her second year in charge is measurable. On the surface (and she never gives you much more insight into her than on the surface, which is her prerogative) nothing much seems to have changed. The players just seem more locked in this season. That is too her credit. She has outcoached some pretty big names in matches this year. if you read my site, you know I am not a big fan of saying anybody deserves anything. I save that word for rare and special occasions. Bev Yanez deserves every good thing that happens to her. I challenge you to find a better person in this league. Her players talked about running through walls for her last season. They didn’t and I was hugely disappointed by that. This year, she convinced them to run through walls for each other. That better message seems to be working. Ultimately, Bev may not be successful here based purely on results. There is still a full half season to go. However, she has proven herself tough, resilient, sharp and maybe most importantly, kind.
The road ahead
While Racing finds itself in good position for the playoffs, there is still much work to be done. Their run after the break is four matches against the top four teams. The only one of those at home is against league leaders Kansas City. Racing has been good on the road, but their three road wins have been against the 11th, 12th, and 13th ranked teams in the league. It feels like they need to get at least 3 points from those four matches. A 0-point run would not be disastrous, but one worries more about the damage to their collective psyche that the ground they would lose in the table.
Another major concern is Racing’s ability to compete in the summer transfer window. In the past they have had assets to work with. With not many of their players being signed past the end of the season, the ones that they would be willing to part with don’t have much value. They could always do a straight buy, but that doesn’t seem like how the team is thinking about things in the moment. What might help is a windfall of cash. It’s hard to see where that would come from.’
Please come watch this team
I am going to make a plea. If you are a person who watched any of U of L baseball’s run to the Men’s College World Series, get your butt to a game or two. I don’t really like baseball, but I watched Louisville’s run. I wanted to be supportive. Be a good city of Louisville sports supporter and give this team a chance. I
doubt that many people who aren’t fans will find this piece. However, you should use my logic above to lay huge guilt trips on any sports fan who haven’t seen this team play this year.
Also read on State of Louisville
- Louisville Baseball Opponent Preview: Morehead State Eagles
- Louisville Baseball Opponent Preview: Central Michigan Chippewas
- Louisville Baseball Opponent Preview: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
- Louisville Baseball Preview: Amegy Bank College Baseball Classic
- Louisville Baseball Opponent Preview: Xavier Musketeers
- Louisville Baseball: Cards Get Humbled in Opening Series with Michigan State
