Zach Allen-Kelly and Michael Shaw return for more sure-to-be-wrong predictions for the 2022 edition of the NWSL Challange Cup.
If you read any of my prediction columns with Zach last year you would have noticed two things. We were often wrong AND the speed at which we were wrong was incredible. I think more than once, a prediction became impossible between the time it was made and the time it was published. However, one prediction seemed almost ominously on the nose…
Michael: Your prediction from last year of Racing turning over 50% of its roster took on a life of its own a bit during the offseason. Racing didn’t quite make it to 50% based on my calculations, but it was really close. Of the players who left, give me the one that hurt you the most emotionally and one that you think hurts the most tactically.
Zach: Emotionally it has to be Yuki. I’m very happy that she was able to go play in the city she wants to live in, but the team will be much less fun without her. Plus, I was hoping to track down a 2011 Japan World Cup kit to wear to games this year.
Tactically I think McCaskill was the biggest loss. I still think that playing in the right system she has USWNT potential and due to the makeup of the roster last season she was forced to play out of her best position for most of the year. I think she would have really benefited from playing in front of Howell this season. Thankfully the team has loaded up on attackers this season, so I think that fills the void, but of all the players that left I think she has the most potential to make us regret it in a few years.
M: Good picks. I’m going to go Betos, with Yuki a close second in the pain department. I will be circling Chicago and Gotham on my calendar to make sure I don’t miss them. As for tactics I’m going to go Kaleigh Riehl. As I wrote in my Challenge Cup preview for my site, I think having a steady backline is important. I would have loved to start the season with a Fox-Bonner-Riehl-Merrick back four, but it wasn’t to be.
Before we dive into the specific Challenge Cup predictions, let me briefly explain how the cup will work this year. The 12 teams (San Diego Wave and Angel City FC being new) will divide into four regional groups. Racing’s group includes the Kansas City Current, Houston Dash, and Chicago Red Stars. The winners of the groups progress to the semifinals along with the second-place team with the most points in their group (and better tiebreakers potentially). For more on history and a deep preview read Bekki Morgan’s article here.
M: On to the Challenge Cup. Who do you have for Racing’s leading scorer at the end of group play?
Z: I think it could legitimately be 3-4 players. If I have to make a guess, I will go with Kizer. I think she had a great year and will continue to improve. For a dark horse pick, give me Salmon.
M: That was going to be my pick. But just to be different let me go with McDonald. I think Kizer gets overlooked sometimes. I have Ekic as my dark horse.
Maybe for a little diversion, do you think Racing will get a new away kit this year? Let’s both say no and based on our record maybe we can will it into existence. But honestly, any chance of getting a new away kit?
Z: If they don’t get a new away kit this year, I’m gonna be pretty mad at the people that have been implying it’s coming all offseason. With the way NWSL goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if they play a Challenge Cup game in the old ones and still had a new one for the season. I just want to see some mint green at some point. At the very least a mint green keeper kit would be nice.
M: We’re up against it from a timing perspective so if we get new kits, it will be right before we publish this column.
Do you have any off-the-wall predictions for the cup?
Z: I predict this is the last season we see the challenge cup in its current form. I don’t think it’s going away, but I expect more changes next year.
M: I think everyone would be on board with that. I was hoping for some sort of equivalent to the US Open Cup for the Women’s side, but that might be difficult with today’s announcement on the USL Super League schedule. What would you like to see different?
Z: I would like to see them push the start of the season forward a bit to clear up space to play the cup during the season, league cup style. I also think the double round robin is a bit much.
M: If they do that, would you be OK with single elimination and giving the previous year’s semifinalists a bye?
Z: I’d be okay with switching to single round robin or making the pools non-regional. I just feel like the double round robin with the regional pools would be a lot of games against the same teams year-end and year out in the long run. Also, I’m rooting for the Super League to succeed with that schedule because I would love to see some of the other US leagues move to it.
M: I like the NWSL spring to fall schedule. I’m fine with playing soccer in 30-degree weather, but I’m not a fan of watching it in 30-degree weather.
Z: I understand you’d like to get rid of the World Cup entirely, but I‘d rather just not have the season overlap with it.
M: Death to all flag-based competitions! Seriously, I don’t hate the idea of international competition, but we as a human race have got to figure out how to have them without the rampant human rights abuses that some of them create.
In recent news, Racing signed Sh’Nia Gordon from CSKA Moscow. When do you think she will see the pitch?
Z: I expect to see her in the Challenge Cup but not this Friday. I would guess 3rd game of the cup.
M: That means an away debut. I’ll go match two.
Z: Which means with our prediction record she will be starting Friday.
M: Now for the big predictions. First, does Racing make it out of their group, either by winning it or being the 4th team based on tiebreakers?
Z: I would predict no. My baseline expectation is 3rd in the group. If they finish higher, I’m feeling pretty good going into the season and lower I’m concerned.
M: I am going to be a little more optimistic and say that they finish 2nd, but San Diego will be a doormat and Angel City is too busy influencing on social media to influence a match on the pitch. I think that both the Thorns and Reign will progress from their group. For the opening match specifically. First, will it rain the entire match, and second, how does KC approach the match?
Z: I think it will rain right up till kickoff and then clear up. I think KC will be approaching the game really similar to Racing. I think they’ll be looking to integrate a lot of new pieces and forge a team identity in these Challenge Cup games.
M: I agree and think that both teams will play their best available starting XI.
Final question…we play pick-up soccer with a few Racing/Lou City-related people from time to time. Will we get a Media/Content Creators match this season and if so, can you and Benton stay fit enough to participate?
Z: I think that would be a blast and also, yes, that’s what I pay the physical therapist for.
Zach is a box-to-box midfielder who records the Vamos Morados podcast with Benton Newman. Michael is two-footed defender/back-to-the-box striker who writes and publishes fleur-de-lis-FC.com
