According to over 100 experts, Louisville basketball will be somewhere between a 5 and 7 seed.
When the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed at 6 PM on Sunday, the Cardinals are most likely to be a 6-seed.
Bracketmatrix.com is an excellent resource that weighs and averages every reputable “bracketology” resource — 106 in total this season.
In the last half decade, bracket matrix has found and factored in 179 resources.
The Bracket Matrix ratings are revealing. The results show that many well-known bracket experts tend to be far from accurate. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi — the godfather of bracket projecting, and easily the most culturally influential bracketologist — ranks as the 118th-most accurate over the last 5 years.
So, Bracket Matrix can give us a much better understanding of where Louisville basketball should land, and who they may face.
According to the site, Louisville projects as either the highest 6-seed or lowest 5 seed.
First Round Potential Matchups
If the Cards landed a 5 or 6, there are a number of teams who could wind up on the 11 or 12 line.
Using this list, I ranked the teams’ resumes based strictly on Ken Pomeroy’s metrics at KenPom.com.
This is a long list, but let me explain.
There are a number of pretty similar resumés on the tournament bubble. I included most of those teams here.
Add in play-in games on the 11 and 12 seed lines, and you have a whole slew of potential matchups.
There are 3-4 teams that stand out to me as potentially rough opponents for Louisville basketball.
McNeese State. Starting with one of the hottest names on the coaching market with one of the most dominant mid-major programs in the last two seasons.
Will Wade is the most overqualified mid-major coach in the nation, and the results speak for themselves.
McNeese took Alabama and Mississippi State to the wire. They play super aggressive on the defensive end, which doesn’t bode well for Louisville’s offense that has been sticky at times without Reyne Smith.
UC San Diego. The nation will know about UC San Diego by Friday night.
In its first season eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament UCSD has been dominant.
Don’t let the size fool you. In similar fashion to Louisville, UCSD plays much bigger than its size, possessing a lot of length and quickness.
I want nothing to do with this squad, who is tops in the nation in turnover margin and points off turnovers.
Vanderbilt. Yeah, I know. They are a bubble team who might not find their way in. But I would rather not see a battle-tested SEC opponent, likely coming off of a play-in game.
Say Vandy gets a competitive win over Texas or Indiana in the round of 68. I really don’t want to see Louisville facing a team carrying momentum who defeated Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Missouri in the back half of the season.
Ideal Matchup: Yale or Liberty.
The Bulldogs upset a really good Auburn team a season ago. They return the core of the team that sprung that upset.
The Bulldogs love shooting the three ball, but like Louisville, they don’t hit a ton of 3s per game.
Yale’s continuity is a bit scary, but their upset win a season ago makes me feel good about the Cards locking in and taking this team seriously.
Liberty has faced six teams outside of the KenPom top 200. The Flames have faced only two teams inside the top 100 on KenPom.
LU doesn’t have a Q1 game on its schedule and it has 6 Q2 and Q3 losses.
Give me Liberty all day.
Second Round Potential Matchups
If Louisville wins in the first round, and things hold serve, the Cards will have their work cut out with a potential matchup with a 3 or 4 seed.
Most years, Louisville’s resumé would be strong enough to earn a 4-seed. However, this is an extremely top heavy field. The best 20-25 teams in the country are damn good, and 12 teams fit KenPom’s criteria for a national champion.
If Louisville faces a 3 or 4 seed in the round of 32, here are the likely opponents.
This feels like a gauntlet of potential opponents.
You never know what will happen in the NCAA Tournement. Who knows? Louisville could advance as a 6-seed and face a 14-seed.
But, as previously mentioned, this is a fantastic grouping of teams — Most of whom have legitimate Final Four aspirations.
Iowa State. At one point, the Cyclones were the hottest team in the country.
TJ Otzelberger’s squad heavily features 3 guards and they are a high-volume shooting team that likes to push the pace.
State can run a lot of bodies at you and it’s balanced attack would concern me.
Texas Tech. Simply put, Texas Tech is the team in the big dance that nobody is talking enough about.
With Kansas in the middle of a “down” year for program standards, a lot of attention has turned away from the Big 12. But, outside of Houston, there is no better team in the conference.
JT Toppin made a name for himself a year ago, and he’s built on that with a fantastic season.
Louisville basketball would have a really difficult time matching up with Tech’s offense.
Ideal Matchup: Michigan. Is Dusty May leading the maize and blue enough of a storyline to entice the committee to set up a potential matchup? Truthfully, I’m unsure. But for the fans of the two programs, this would be a nice first-year litmus test.
The Wolverines have been good this season, but they feel a piece or two away from elite eight or final four contention.
Michigan feels like a more talented version of Stanford. They want to run the twin towers of Vlad Golden and Danny Wolf at a team like Louisville, and the two 7-foot-plus starters would be a massive problem to contend with.
However, I love Louisville’s backcourt against Michigan’s backcourt. The Wolverines are respectable, but they are the team I’d like to play.
