Louisville basketball could be gifted an 11th-hour triumph in the recruiting world with the commitment of former Duke signee Mackenzie Mgbako. What the five-star would bring to the table for the Cards.
Louisville basketball could finally be reaching the potential on the recruiting trail that Cardinals fans expected after the hiring of Kenny Payne in the spring of 2022.
After perhaps the worst season in school history, the future outlook of the program looked bleak with a fairly average 2023 recruiting class incoming.
However, the Cards’ staff has been busy of the last 6 weeks, securing surprising 2023 commitments from two top 30 players.
Now, Louisville basketball is looking to make it a trifecta with five-star Mackenzie Mgbako, who would easily be the biggest splash yet.
The 6’8, 220-pound star from Gladstone, New Jersey recently asked for a release from his National Letter of Intent from Duke after star forward Kyle Filipowski decided to return to school.
Considered the 7th-best player in the country according to the 247Sports Composite ratings, Mgbako has serious ties to the Cards and multiple insiders have pegged the Cards as the heavy favorite for his services.
Let’s take a deep dive into what Mgbako brings to the table, and what his addition to this Louisville basketball squad would mean.
What the experts are saying about Mgbako
Evan Tomes, NBA Draft.net
Strengths: 6’8.75 forward … Good size and length for position with a 6’10 wingspan and 8’9.25 standing reach … Good strength and impressive physical profile. One of the more college ready players from a physical standpoint.
Highly active and moves well off the ball. Good athlete and very well-coordinated. Throws down dunks with either hand in the half-court. Doesn’t hesitate to use either hand at the rim, while contorting his body in the congested paint.
Can be a matchup problem taking smaller wings into the post and there aren’t many who can match his strength at this level. Flashes solid post-play: reverse pivots, fadeaways, and jump hooks.
Effective slasher and initiates/finishes through contact. Good rebounder for the position. Averaged 7.4 rebounds per game over the Nike EYBL in 2022.
Good tools and versatility as a defender, showing the ability to switch, defending up and down the lineup. Blocks shots well for the position. Averaged 1 block per game over the Nike EYBL in 2021 and 0.9 blocks per game in 2022.
Despite tunnel vision at times, he’s capable of making impressive passes off the dribble. Also capable of impressive cross-court passes out of the post. Good aggression, stays engaged, and consistently plays hard. Highly confident and doesn’t second guess himself.
Weaknesses: Above average athlete but isn’t incredibly explosive. He can get wild with his shot selection and has tunnel vision at times, bailing out the defense. Has a habit of picking up his dribble early, holding it for a few seconds, then go up with a contested shot, sometimes from distance.
While it works at times at this level, he has a tendency to put his head down and force his way to the rim. Has room to improve offensive technique overall as players will match his physicality at the next levels.
Very high-volume shooter at a not-so-efficient rate. Averaged 16 points (13.4 FGA) per game on 42.9% FG% over the Nike EYBL in 2021 and 16.2 points (15.3 FGA) per game on 42.7% FG% in 2022.
While he does have range out the 3PT line, and his jump shot looks good as he keeps it straight (misses fall short or too long) but he lacks consistency overall. Shot 25.9% 3PT% on 6.8 3PT attempts per game over the Nike EYBL in 2022.
Can improve as a free throw shooter. Shot 68.4% FT% over the Nike EYBL in 2021 and 63.8% FT% in 2022.
Can tighten up as a ball-handler and tends to get loose with the ball even without defensive pressure. Averaged 1 assist to 1.7 turnovers per game over the Nike EYBL in 2021 and 1.7 assists to 1.8 turnovers per game in 2022.
Isn’t the quickest laterally, which will be imperative defending wings at the next levels. Picks up unnecessary fouls and found himself in foul trouble throughout the EYBL season. Can work on staying in position defensively as he bites and gambles a bit often.
Arin Smith, NBADraft.net, Nike Hoops Summit Analysis
Mgbako was the game’s top performer, exhibiting a smooth offensive game. Also perhaps just as importantly, he got the most mentions from NBA scouts during the week in practices, as a player that stood out to them.
Benefiting from having played in last year’s event, he looked extremely comfortable, ending up with a game-high 22 points (6-14 fg, and 2-5 from 3) and 8 boards.
He flashed his polish, knocking down a step-back 3-pointer, and was effective in scoring and keeping the World team in the game.
While not the most explosive athlete, he is clearly one of the most advanced players in the class. He had a bit of a disappearing act at the McDonald’s All-American game with no points but looked like a different player in Portland.
Mgbako shows excellent form on his shot and a well-developed build. He did not measure with as much length as one would expect looking at him with just a +1.5 wingspan, but a solid 8’10 standing reach.
Mgbako on his own game
Probably something that separates me from others that play my position is I can shoot the ball really well. That’s something I started off doing before anything else, like even before putting it on the ground. So I hold my shot to be one of the top shots in the country. I’m working on becoming a leader and making plays for my teammates, finding the open man, etc. I’m good off screens, and can pick and pop.
I can drive more aggressively, and my athleticism is coming with that, so being more aggressive on the boards, offensive and defensive. Then my pull-ups and step-backs, the mid-range. A lot of kids don’t have a mid-range right now and I think I can use that to my advantage. And floaters, too.
I’m a leader who likes to get everybody involved early, whether that’s on the defensive or offensive side. And I hold everyone to an accountability [standard] that I hold myself to. So if I wanted to be doing something on the court that was correct I would want somebody to tell me that and likewise for them.
I think my post game is very underrated. I showed it a little bit during the EYBL circuit, but not too much. I wasn’t at 100-percent, but I think this year people are really going to be shocked by that because I haven’t really shown too much of my post game, yet. Like my left-hand hook shot, fadeaways, pump fakes, euros, spin moves, all of that.
I’m most definitely an in-your-face [type], hand-checking, but not to the point where they call the foul. I would like to guard 94 feet, but I don’t know if I could do that just yet, so I’d say [I guard starting at] the half-court. Getting a few blocks in there, maybe average three blocks per game, that wouldn’t be too bad.
As a defender I want to guard either 1-4 or 2-4 because when you get older, the centers just become way too big. They’re in the 6’10” range and around 240-250 pounds so that wouldn’t really make sense. Unless they’re guarding me, I want the switch to take them off the dribble.
I’ve been with the New Jersey Scholars for about four years now, so I’ve been with them for a while. They just nurtured me. Open gyms whenever I could get in the gym they were there to provide a gym. Learned a lot under Coach Wagner, just teaching me how to be a better guard, make the right reads, get open shots from the top of the key or from the mid-post. Also, just being more of a leader off the court. Like after a loss to talk to your teammates and see how they’re feeling. If we had a good game to celebrate the win and then just focus on the next one because the job’s not done.
Off the court I’m very charismatic. I can make you laugh even if I don’t try… Just my goofiness, the way I connect with my teammates off the court, whoever it may be, making sure everyone feels included in what we’re doing and just being a family.
Examining Mgbako’s fit at Louisville
When Kenny Payne and his staff came to Louisville, there was no shying away from the goals and identity that they aspired for. The Louisville basketball staff wanted to get the best players in the country. Period.
Payne is in the relationship business. Assistant Nolan Smith became known for his recruiting prowess at Duke. And Associate Head Coach Danny Manning has no shortage of acclaim and acumen in the recruiting world.
Landing Mgbako would go a long way toward establishing goodwill and trust among the Louisville fan base.
Pairing him with a talented young core of Skyy Clark, Trentyn Flowers, and Dennis Evans among others could potentially set Louisville basketball up for one of the better single-year turnarounds in program history.
Louisville has a bit of a log jam down low as things stand with Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, the aforementioned Evans, Emmanuel Okorafor, and JJ Traynor presently rostered.
However, Mgbako would be a take regardless of the situation down low.
Perhaps the most college-ready forward in the 2023 class, Mgbako can float to the 3 or even 2 if needed for Louisville. He has above-average ball skills for his size, good vision, and an ever-improving jump shot.
With that in mind, Mgbako would be seen as a probable day 1 starter who would be a matchup nightmare anywhere in the ACC.
You immediately start thinking about lineups like one with Clark (6’3 PG), Flowers (6’8 G), Mgbako (6’8 F), Traynor (6’9 F), and Evans (7’2 C), which could offer limitless possibilities for a Louisville team that was unusually void of talent and determination a season ago.
Add in returnees like Mike James and Huntley-Hatfield, and a roster full of high four-star and five-star talent brings immediate hope to a fan base starving for positivity.
Mgbako is a likely 2024 NBA lottery pick, which brings the possibility of the first true one-and-done college star for Louisville basketball.
There’s no doubt that Mgbako has a good head on his shoulders and would be a perfect fit for Payne and company in 2023-24.
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