Decisions, Decisions: An early look at Louisville basketball in 2021-22

A fresh look at what the 2021-22 roster could look like for Louisville basketball

Just like that, basketball in the bluegrass state (as far as men’s college programs go) is over. After failing to make the NCAA Tournament, the Louisville basketball season officially came to a close.

For the second time in two years and the third time in four years, Louisville basketball fans will be without postseason basketball. That alone is bound to lead to an interesting offseason. Add in new transfer rules going into effect and this offseason will be crazy.

Chris Mack met with the local media on Monday to discuss all that’s transpired over the last 24 hours. On missing the tournament and the raw emotion, Mack said:

It’s incredibly disappointing. Everything that you work for in the offseason. It’s everything that do you prepare for, to be a part of March Madness. It didn’t happen. It wasn’t reality. I think that we came here as a coaching staff to be a part of the big tournament. I tell you that there are a lot of things that go into play. Had we been selected, we would have been the youngest, most inexperienced team out of the 68 teams. We would have been. We replaced all five starters off of last year’s top 15 team. All five. It’s not just as simple as pressing a button and saying we want to be a tournament team again. You have to earn it, you have to work for it. 

Quote via Matt McGavic, Louisville Report

There were and still are a lot of questions about the offseason and how the disappointments of 2020-21 can be righted. Mack had high expectations for his team moving forward, saying:

“We need to have a great offseason in front of us, one that we needed last summer to be quite honest.”

Player movement will be a crucial part of the offseason as mentioned. We’re almost guaranteed to see the most transfers in NCAA history.

Movement has already begun for Mack and the Louisville basketball program. Aidan Igiehon hit the transfer portal following two seasons, and thanks to new rules, he likely won’t be the last.

As Mack alluded to, there are bound to be more transfers and player movement over the coming weeks and months. Still, with what we know now it’s at least possible to look at what the roster could look like next season.

Who returns in 2021-22

Here’s what we know for sure about the offseason and what Mack returns next season:

Nothing. Absoultely nothing. That’s right, this offseason stands to be one of the most interesting and likely frustrating in recent memory. Thanks to immediate eligibility from the NCAA and a “free season,” the roster has the potential to change from top to bottom.

Currently, Louisville is slated to return David Johnson, Dre Davis, Josh Nickelberry, Sam Williamson, JaeLyn Withers, Quinn Slazinski, JJ Traynor, and Gabe Wiznitzer. Of that group, Johnson, Williamson, and Withers would likely be returning starters. Davis, Slazinski, Traynor, as well Nickelberry and Wiznitzer should all be rotational pieces of some kind.

You’d expect a big jump from Williamson and Johnson from their sophomore to junior seasons, which would give Louisville basketball a strong foundation. The same could also be said for Withers, who was one of the top freshmen in the ACC in 2020-21. His role will be an important issue moving forward, but that’s a big three that should provide a big impact.

Slazinski and Nickelberry will both be in line to compete for starting positions, depending on what happens with the rest of the roster this offseason. This will be a huge offseason for local native, Traynor, and second-year freshman Wiznitzer. Both were thrust into action due to the injury and covid issues that plagued the Cards all season and likely will be in a similar position next year.

With a full off-season, both will get much-needed time in the weight room with strength coaches. They’ll also stand to benefit from more time with coaches for film and on-court development. Something that wasn’t an option last season.

What Louisville basketball gains in 2021-22

Louisville currently sits with the nation’s fifth best-recruiting class in 2021 according to 247 Sports. With signed LOI’s from three top 100 four-star players, the #1 JUCO player in the country, and a three-star wing with a ton of potential, Mack will once again bring in another large class.

El Ellis is expected to step right into a prominent role and could be a nice replacement for Jones, assuming he doesn’t return. Bobby Pettiford and Michael James will both likely see the floor as freshmen but as we’ve seen roles and fit will be more important than talent. Then there’s Roosevelt Wheeler, who should be considered the big man of the future. At 6’10, 225-pounds he’ll give Louisville basketball more size and versatility inside, but he’ll be coming off of a major injury. Finally, three-star forward Eric Van Der Heijden is this year’s project recruit, ranking in the mid 200’s. He’s a talented forward who will provide shooting and versatility, but won’t be expected to contribute for at least a year. You could even see a redshirt.

Ellis is the most likely to make a significant impact in 2021-22. Assuming Jones & Johnson both leave for the NBA, Ellis could find himself as the primary ball-handler and go-to scorer. He’s been a dynamic guard at the JUCO level and while it’s not a slam dunk that he’ll be a star, he should be a very important piece.

Pettiford Jr. will be a very nice backup piece, who will provide much-needed ball handling and change of pace. Freshman guards often face difficulties with adjusting to the speed and physicality of the game. Getting Pettiford comfortable in a smaller role is ideal in 2021-22 before taking over as a starting-caliber guard down the road.

Mack has also already been active in recruiting the ever-growing transfer portal. Already landing a commitment from Miami freshman wing, Matt Cross. Cross will provide a nice combination of size and shooting, as evident in his 16-point game against Louisville this season. He’ll give Louisville another unique wing/forward option capable of shooting the ball from deep at a high level; something that was desperately missing this season.

Decisions to be made

The NCAA granting an extra year of eligibility to all D1 players has completely changed what the offseason will look like.

Normally you’d know for quite some time that seniors aren’t returning, leaving only transfer and NBA Draft/professional decisions to be made.

This season not only can seniors decide to return for another season, but they also have the layered possibility of transferring to another school (as long as a scholarship is open).

So, for a guy like Carlik Jones there are multiple options to mull over:

1) Leave for the NBA/professional ranks

2) Return to Louisville for one more season

3) Transfer to another program for one last season

That means Malik Williams, Jones, and Charles Minlend, all could theoretically return to Louisville. But all could also leave as planned.

Mack talked about those decisions Monday and from my point of view it doesn’t seem that anyone will return. However, Williams could benefit from returning after only playing three games. While Jones’ father has made interesting comments that could lead to a return. Most thought Minlend wasn’t coming back next season and Mack’s comments all but confirmed that.

That’s not all.

Sophomore guard David Johnson has been on a ton of NBA mock drafts as a first-round projected player all season. That means he’s more than a lock to explore the draft. Ranked anywhere from the mid-teens to late ’50s, the verdict is still out on his ability to actually fulfill projections.

The NBA Combine will ultimately be the decider for Johnson. So once again, the offseason will draw out and leave a lot of unanswered questions.

Then there’s the transfer element. As of March 16th the portal is up to 500 total D1 transfers, living up to the madness many projected. Louisville has already seen Aidan Igiehon transfer, a move that shouldn’t be a shock to anyone.

Mack hinted that other players could follow. But until then, the Cards roster is set for next season.

Here it is!

What else Chris Mack needs

Assuming that Jones, Williams, Minlend Jr., and Johnson are all gone, there will be a couple of major needs. First, down low. Louisville was below average to bed when it came to defending the interior and scoring off post-ups. They desperately will need to bring in a starting-caliber big, who can give them 20-25 minutes a night. If I’m Chris Mack, my most important task is finding a big who can hold down the five and allow Withers to move to his natural four spot. Tre Mitchell, a First-Team All-A-10 sophomore big man out of UMass should be target numero uno.

Next, Louisville will need to attack the guard position. They’ll benefit from bringing in Ellis and Pettiford Jr., both of whom are more than capable ball handlers, scorers, and offensive initiators. Still, that puts a ton of pressure on junior-to-be Josh Nickelberry to become a primary scorer and ball-handler. That’s assuming Nickelberry returns. Dealing with injury, Nickelberry never was able to carve out a consistent role this season. There were flashes of a guy capable of becoming a shooter, but I’m not sure he’s someone you can lean on for more.

If a scholarship opens, Louisville will pursue a veteran, battle-tested guard who can complement the skills of Ellis and Pettiford. Myreon Jones out of Penn State and Xavier Johnson of Pittsburgh would my top choices if I was Louisville.

With Mack adding multiple wings, there shouldn’t be a need here. In fact, the three and four spots for Louisville are loaded next season.

Not only does Louisville return Sam Williamson, Quinn Slazinski, Withers, Dre Davis, and JJ Traynor. But they’ll also gain Cross, EVDH, and James from the class of 2021. That’s 7 guys who are listed at 6’7, 6’8, 6’8, 6’6, 6’8, 6’6, 6’8, and 6’6 respectively.

No two players are the same, yet each brings something valuable to the table that should contribute to winning basketball. Shooting and defense will be the focal points for Williamson, Withers, and Slazinski. While learning the game and dedicating themselves to the weight room will be the priority for Davis and Traynor.

Get ready….Set…Wait?

Now comes everyone’s least favorite thing, waiting. For the next eight-ish months there will be no games to watch and some crazy stuff is going to happen. Transfers. Players staying, leaving, players going pro. That’s likely to make just about any fan go crazy, assuming how things go.

Expect the unexpected, that’s all I can say.

After missing the tournament I expect every single detail of the offseason for Chris Mack to be critiqued and likely criticized by fans. His comments about having a “great offseason” set the bar and expectations high for next season, and it will be his job to prove he can raise the standards.

Mack made it clear to the media that this offseason won’t be normal. “College basketball is always about change, and I think this offseason will reflect that,” Mack said. Things are going to move fast (we’re already seeing it) and Louisville basketball is going to have to keep up with player movement. More than ever roster management is going to be crucial.

The pieces are there for Louisville to return to the tournament in 2021-2022.

Buckle up, folks.