PGA Championship preview: Jordan Speith, Justin Thomas, or the field?

The PGA Championship returns to one of the hardest courses in the world. Making the case for the favorites, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.

For the first time, the PGA Championship will not be the final major of the year. Sandwiched between The Players, The Masters, and The US Open and right at the start of the NBA playoffs, the PGA is probably not receiving the attention it deserves.

However, it should be getting a ton of love. One of the best fields in golf is set to take on what is pegged as the most brutal course on the planet: Kiawah Island Ocean Course.

This 7,900-plus yard plus monster is situated on along the Atlantic Ocean in the South Carolina marshes. Length is a factor. Wind is a larger factor. The world’s best will struggle.

Who will come out on top? Making the case for some of the world’s best and who could surprise by Sunday.

The Favorites
Rory McIlroy 11-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Jon Rahm 14-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 16-1
Dustin Johnson 18-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Daniel Berger 30-1
Collin Morikawa 30-1

Making the case for Jordan Spieth- Nick Conner

Jordan Spieth is beyond back.

He’s returned to being an automatic top-10 machine and proved last week–after a month layoff that included battling COVID–that he’s truly found something.

Spieth talks differently, walks differently, and has positive swing thoughts once again. Add all that up with a big-boy golf course, possible high coastal winds, and a chance to complete the career grand slam this week at Kiawah: it just has to be Jordan’s week.

Spieth’s ability to control his ball flight, summon short game wizardry, and pull off shots only other guys would dream about point to at minimum being right there come Sunday evening. Let’s walk through four things that this week’s winner will have to have.

Length on approach shots: The Ocean Course will play long without more than forecasted winds so strong long iron play will be a must. Check.
Multiple options off the tee: If and when the wind kicks up this weekend players will have to be able to hit a variety of clubs and shots off the tee. Spieth is unafraid of hitting low stingers and cuts with a driving iron or hybrid. Check.
Resiliency: Above all I expect Kiawah to bite each and every player multiple times. This week’s winner must be able to shake off a bogey (or worse) and get right back to making well-earned pars. Check.
Finish: At the end of the day this is a 10-15 guy tournament. Very few Tour Players have the mental ability to finish at this type of course, let alone this type of Major Championship. Check.

The stars are aligning, the spotlight is getting tighter and tighter, and history is about to be made. Congratulations to Jordan Spieth on becoming the 6th player in golf history to complete the Career Grand Slam at a seasoned 27 years of age.

Who Else?

Daniel Berger. The Ocean Course will quickly weed out players who aren’t good enough in all phases of the game. Berger’s best ability is playing quality golf in all phases and not necessarily having a mind-blowing week on the way to winning. 30/1 is a good number to snag him at as well with an obviously stacked leaderboard.

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Making the case for Justin Thomas- Presley Meyer

While my counterpart favors Spieth- with good reason- I am high on a player that already has a PGA Championship under his belt- Justin Thomas.

While Thomas won at Quail Hollow, which is more of a traditional PGA layout, the Ocean course presents a number of challenges reminiscent of a US Open or British Open. It’s long. Longer than long. It’s windy with elevated fairways and greens.

Still, Thomas has the experience and skillset to set the pace at a place like the Ocean Course.

Last year, Thomas became the third-youngest player on the PGA Tour to reach 13 victories. He has a PGA Championship, a FedEx Cup, multiple Ryder Cups, multiple President’s Cups, will compete in this year’s Olympics, and won The PLAYERS just two months ago.

The one thing eluding Thomas that could permanently cement him as an all-time great at just 28 is a second major. Rory McIlroy, Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson are the only players in the field with multiple majors. He has a chance to join elite company this week.

Putting is the difference. Thomas is the best ball striker in the field. He is the best tee-to-green. He is probably the best wedge player in the game right now. The one factor that will make or break him this week is his putting.
Thomas posted a top 10 two weeks ago while finishing among the bottom 10% in the field in strokes gained putting. If he can just be average on the greens, I love his chances.

Who else?

Sam Burns (40/1) has been scorching of late, and there is reason to believe a first timer could pull off a win this week.

Burns has finished first and second in his last two events, and has posted a top-five finish three times this season. He has the length and the ball striking to play in this wind, and he is feeling it. This is his first major of the season, but that didn’t seem to bother young gun Will Zalatoris in The Masters.