Photo Courtesy of Chris Humphrey/ Racing Louisville
Racing Louisville secured a spot in the Challenge Cup semifinals and are within touching distance of playoffs, but the ultimate success of the season will be determined in the next weeks.
As a reminder, there are 22 league matches in this NWSL season, so for the third quarter review I included five league matches and the four Challenge Cup matches that took place during this period.
I ended my midseason review with the question “Should Racing Louisville concede the playoffs to focus on the Challenge Cup?” I think Racing were able to have their cake and eat it too to some extent in regard to that question, but they still have work to do to make the playoffs.
Match Recaps
Racing Louisville was able to get 8 points from its most recent 5 matches for the second straight section of the season. That yields a points/match average of 1.6. That rate extrapolated over the next 6 matches would put them in the 30-point range, but that probably has them on the outside looking in from a playoff perspective. However, Racing Louisville did just enough (with a match to spare) to qualify for a semifinal spot in the Challenge Cup, but 2 losses in the last two matches means that the semifinal will be on the road against number one seed OL Reign. There were quite a few matches packed into this section of the season due to the international break for the World Cup, so here is a quick review of the 9 matches:
Racing 3 – Dash 0 (Challenge Cup)
Best Bit: This is a tough call in this match, but I will go with Fischer’s goal in first half stoppage to open the scoring.
Worst Bit: Again a tough call since Racing played so well, so I will go with the fact that they only scored thrice.
Key takeaway: Racing put in a thoroughly dominating performance and retained a perfect record in the Challenge Cup.
Racing 2 – Gotham 0
Best Bit: Kgatlana running rampant and ultimately scoring a goal.
Worst Bit: SpongeBob…but that wasn’t for me so that’s nitpicking.
Key takeaway: Racing beat a good team at home and started to show their full potential.
Courage 1 – Racing 0
Best Bit: Racing put in another solid defensive performance despite giving up a goal.
Worst Bit: The goal was scrappy and the Courage were a bit fortunate to score it.
Key takeaway: It was just one of those matches that could have gone either way, so you take what you get from a results perspective.
Reign 2 – Racing 2
Best Bit: Going up 2-0 on the road.
Worst Bit: Conceded two goals shortly after.
Key takeaway: There never seems to be much difference between these teams, so maybe Racing can get on the right side of the scoreline in the upcoming Challenge Cup semifinal.
Racing 2 – Current 1
Best Bit: Fighting back after going a goal down early.
Worst Bit: Conceding the penalty that gave the Current the early lead.
Key takeaway: Racing always felt like they were going to score, so scoring multiple goals was not a surprising outcome.
Racing 2 – Red Stars 0 (Challenge Cup)
Best Bit: Scoring twice early to give the Red Stars permission to give up and not try.
Worst Bit: The Red Stars had already made the decision to put in an embarrassing effort from the moment they stepped on the pitch evidently.
Key takeaway: The Red Stars are not a good team and didn’t take the Challenge Cup seriously in the least.
Dash 1 – Racing 0 (Challenge Cup)
Best Bit: The next morning when the club learned that they clinched a semifinal birth in the Challenge Cup.
Worst Bit: Racing had a nightmare 10 minute stretch where they conceded and obviously missed the absent Erceg.
Key takeaway: Racing needed a win in the next match to win the group.
Current 3 – Racing 0 (Challenge Cup)
Best Bit: Nothing…but they still qualified.
Worst Bit: Alymer getting sent off for a second yellow while Racing was trailing 1-0 which essentially killed their chances at topping the group.
Key takeaway: Losing Howell was a bridge too far for this team with all of the other absences for the World Cup.
Racing 1 – Angel City 1
Best Bit: Pokorny finding Davis for the equalizer.
Worst Bit: McCaskill once again involved in punishing Racing by assisting on the goal.
Key takeaway: There is virtually no margin for error in making a push for the playoffs because the team looked out of sync, with this particular group having not played together for several weeks.
What went well
Goals from players not named DeMelo
I identified this as an item that needed improvement in my midseason review. Racing scored 12 goals in the nine matches during this period of the season with only 2 coming from DeMelo. The leading scorer during this section of the season was Paige Monaghan with 3 goals. A total of 9 different players scored goals during this period. That is a very positive trend. I believe that Racing still needs one more reliable goal scorer to move to the next level, but if you define their current level as “Playoff Contender” (which basically is everyone in the league this season excluding the upper echelon) they are likely getting enough production as a collective. They still need more from Kanu, Kgatlana and Nadim, but it is possible that goals are coming from them. “Finishing” was the other area for improvement that I identified, and I would say that it has neither gotten better nor worse.
Challenge Cup Semifinal Qualification
While you would like to see Racing Louisville host a semifinal, the club had previously won only one of their previous nine Challenge Cup matches, so winning four out of six is a definite improvement. From the start of the season Coach Björkegren said that the club would treat the competition seriously and they obviously did so which I think is commendable. The league plans to abandon the Challenge Cup in 2024 which I believe is a shame. I like when a season has more than a couple of chances for honors. The NWSL Championship will always be the one emphasized by the league, but to me the Shield and Cup are more indicative of long-term excellence over a season. In my mind all 3 all valuable, so I hate to see one replaced by a “super cup” which is only indicative of which team is better on a particular day and sometimes not even indicative of that. Therefore, this may be Racing’s best opportunity for a trophy this year and I think they will go all out to try to win it. It will be fun to watch, if your definition of fun is watching a competition that could result in a penalty shootout (I hate penalty shootouts regardless of outcome, so I hope things are settled at full time).
General goodwill around the club
This being the NWSL, you can never be sure of the rug being pulled out from under you ( I am not a “knock on wood” guy so spare me the “putting it out into the universe” malarkey), but off the pitch things definitely seem to be moving in the right direction. The additional of Ryan Dell has seemed to have been a great move. Since his arrival, there has been a steadiness to how the club has approached things. I am glad there wasn’t a panic buy during the summer transfer window when a few reported possibilities didn’t come to fruition. In my brief chats with him he seems level-headed and thoughtful about his approach to improving the club, which is always a good sign in my book.
Several of the players have increased their community involvement and I can’t think of any instance where a newly acquired player hasn’t been very complimentary about there experience joining the club (again, take that for what it’s worth but I will accept it as genuine). Howell has stepped up and shown herself to be an excellent choice as captain. Newest full season addition Maddie Porkorny expressed how easy it was for her to become integrated both on and off the pitch.
A record crowd showed up for the “Fill the Fam” promotion and that crowd exceeded 10,000 for the first time as well. It will be interesting to see what the steady state crowd is for the rest of the season, but that night was a success only qualified by the result on the pitch.
Areas for Improvement
Believe-know-show
I think there is a clear stage model to a team’s development. Almost all teams start out unsure of how good they are as a collective. Once they overcome that first hurdle of believing they are a “good” team, they have to then muster enough confidence to know that they are a “good” team. Then the final hurdle is to show that they are a “good” team. You can replace “good” with “improving”, “great”, “title contending”, “world class” and even “league average’ and I think the model still works. Teams will find themselves on the believe-know-show spectrum at different points in the season, but the key is to “show” when it matters most and to never let “believe” turn to doubt.
I think Racing is on the “know-show” precipice of being a “playoff” level team. They just have to demonstrate enough confidence to get the results needed. All year we have heard that the performances have been worthy even if the results don’t always show it. At some point, most likely this very moment, the performances stop mattering and only the results do. Can Racing grind out 12 points from these last 6 matches? I think that might be enough, but I don’t know if they are up to the task or not. Some team in this league will inevitably makes a relentless late push for the playoffs, so I believe the opportunity is there.
On the pitch cohesion
I am really getting into nitpicking territory again when I talk about improvements needed for the rest of the season. I still think the overall roster is one, possibly two more transfer windows away from being ideal, but that isn’t something for immediate consideration. When Kgatlana returns to the club, hopefully in time to face Gotham, the roster really will be at full strength.
Alex Chidiac is still missing from the roster, but there is little indication that she is key to the club’s plans for this season or going forward. The most recent match demonstrated a lack of cohesion that could easily be attributed to the lack of match sharpness for returning World Cup players and Nadim, but assuming immediate cohesion in the next match is a jump that I am not willing to make either.
Nadim had not led the line with this group of players, and it showed on Saturday. She definitely holds the ball up more than Davis. I don’t necessarily think this is a bad strategy, especially as it was deployed on Saturday as Racing was really struggling to possess the ball in the attacking half at all in the first half. However, it is a stark contrast to how Davis plays and Kgatlana and Nadim haven’t played together much at all. They are the two players that Racing will need to be in peak form to make a playoff push in my opinion. I don’t know if there is a way to speed this up, so we may just have to live with the results for the next few matches.
The alternative is to play a less talented team but with more cohesion. I don’t think that is how things will play out, so Racing will be battling their opponents as well as their own unfamiliarity with each other for a period. I think we have enough evidence that the roster as currently constructed is probably playoff contender level, but the timing of returning players this season has been a true hindrance to cohesion.
All to play for
Racing Louisville is still alive in both competitions and that in and of itself is an achievement over previous seasons. I have been asked several times if I thought that Racing was a playoff team this season, and I have consistently answered that I don’t believe that they are. I am not necessarily changing my stance, but I would say that I would not be surprised if they made the playoffs, and also not surprised if they didn’t.
As mentioned above, I believe 12 points will do it, but this club hasn’t ever demonstrated that level of league form. That level of form has occurred for at least one six-match period this season for six of the league’s teams with Orlando hitting that level last week and the Courage maintaining that level even with a loss.
If you lower that number to 11, then nine out of the league’s twelve teams have hit that level, including Racing for a single six-match period. So, I would say that a playoff push remains somewhere between the realm of possibility and the realm of probability.
If it were up to me, I would go all in on the Challenge Cup, but there is nothing to suggest that the team isn’t already thinking that way. There are not any league matches to contend with during that period, so there won’t have to be any strategic resting of players. I have to believe that the Current will be highly incented to try to win the cup with their league season being a disappointment so far.
The OL Reign and North Carolina Courage probably would sacrifice a cup win for a chance to win the Championship or the Shield, so maybe they would be slightly less inclined to throw everything into a cup semifinal but in reality, I think that mentality goes out the window once the match starts. if it even existed in the first place.
I think the OL Reign/Racing Louisville rivalry is maybe a little bit under the radar for the average NWSL fan, but I think the Racing Louisville players might have a bitter taste from losing the Women’s Cup final last year and drawing twice with 2 goal leads this season.
