Photo Courtesy of Chris Humphrey/ Racing Louisville
Racing Louisville’s form improved in the second quarter of the season, but will it be enough to make a push for the playoffs?
As a reminder, there are 22 league matches in this NWSL season, so for the midseason review the league schedule divides in half nicely. Racing Louisville has also played 2 Challenge Cup matches during this stretch and will play its third this Wednesday (I am writing this on Monday).
I was frankly rather merciless in my first quarter review. I stand by that assessment 100%, especially in light of the improved performance that immediately followed. The talent on this squad is too good to ever go through a stretch of 4 points from 6 matches and any excuse given for such a poor point tally doesn’t ring true in my opinion.
Match Recaps
Racing Louisville was able to muster 8 points from its most recent 5 matches. That yields a point/match average of 1.6. That rate extrapolated over 11 matches would put them at either 17 or 18 points, with either tally good enough to put them in playoff position. Unfortunately, the previously mentioned poor start means that 1.6 points/match might not be good enough to make up the necessary ground. Still, there is enough improved performance to think that while a playoff push may not be probable, it’s at least not outside the realm of possibility. Here is a quick review of the 5 league matches:
Racing 3 – Red Stars 0
Best Bit: Besides getting their first win of the season, it had to be Goins scoring her first-ever goal to put the match to bed.
Worst Bit: Savannah DeMelo‘s missed penalty that fortunately for Racing turned into an own goal.
Key takeaway: Racing easily get 3 points and look like a completely different team with DeMelo back in the Starting XI.
Current 0– Racing 2
Best Bit: DeMelo’s pressure forcing Cassie Miller into playing the ball off her resulting in a very scrappy goal.
Worst Bit: None really, it was the best performance of the season so far.
Key takeaway: Racing get their first-ever 3-match win streak if you include the Challenge Cup match against the Current earlier that week.
Racing 1 – Courage 2
Best Bit: Milliet plays in a brilliant cross from which Baggett scores to make the end of the match a little more interesting.
Worst Bit: Racing end up on the unlucky side of a looped header from Madsen to go behind a match in which they had the better opportunities to open the scoring.
Key takeaway: This match once again demonstrates Racing’s tendency to waste chances during the stretches where they have outplayed their opponents.
Spirit 1 – Racing 1
Best Bit/Worst Bit: Pikkujämsä gets sent off after being on the pitch for less than two minutes due to preventing a clear goal-scoring opportunity. It likely saved the point, but it was a poor sub by Björkegren and cost Racing any real chance to steal a win.
Key takeaway: Racing do enough to steal a point, which they did very little on the offensive side to earn.
Racing 0 – Wave 0
Best Bit: Racing put in a stellar defensive performance.
Worst Bit: Racing were never really dangerous in attack.
Key takeaway: Racing’s inability to score from open play is starting to be a worry.
Overall, the results were better, but it would be almost impossible for them to be worse. All of the performances had things to like, but they probably needed to pull 10 or 11 points out of these 5 matches to really make up enough ground for the poor 4-point return from the first 6 matches.
See Also: Racing Louisville first quarter season review
What went well
Savannah DeMelo’s continued rise
After a terrific rookie season, Savannah DeMelo has continued to improve and impress to the point of winning the NWSL Player of the Month award for May. She is Louisville’s leading scorer in both the league and Challenge Cup competitions.
Perhaps the most obvious display of her importance to the club was how disjointed and poor they looked when she was suspended for the Orlando Pride match. In retrospect, Orlando has proven to be a tougher team than originally thought, but Racing was clearly out of whack in the first half of that match without DeMelo.
Savannah is the team’s designated penalty taker although Wang took and converted one after DeMelo missed one vs. Chicago. Basically, she is most of the offense at this point. Davis is the only other player with more than one goal in the league and both of those came from assists from DeMelo.
All of this is good for DeMelo personally and professionally, but I shudder to think where Racing Louisville would sit in the table without her. The club needs to find a second reliable attacking threat.
Playing with more intensity
One of my more unusual complaints about Racing Louisville is that they were too “nice” and “predictable” on the pitch. I still think they are too easy to plan for, although that is improving as well. They have clearly become more physical in their play recently.
The two most recent draws were very physical affairs and the type of matches that Racing would have lost in the recent past. Jae Howell as captain has to be lauded for her continuous ferocity while leading the team on the pitch. She is Louisville’s most consistently physical player and has started to get in the officials’ ears more recently. This was on clear display vs. San Diego when she questioned both a sideline official and the lead official about a call (while maintaining enough cool to avoid a card).
Teams take their cues from their captains, so it’s a good sign to see how intense Howell is when she’s on the pitch.
Milliet
While DeMelo is still Racing Louisville’s best and most important player, Lauren Milliet may be their most improved.
Asked to play out of her natural position at right back (although she is good enough now for that to be her natural position), Milliet was decent in the latter half of last season and improved in the first quarter of this one, but now looks to be a solid right back in this league.
Teams were naturally going to test her (and Lester) with Pickett and Erceg on the left side of defense, but she has risen to the challenge, especially against players like Trinity Rodman. She is probably the player that most effectively converts defense to offense on this team when she makes an interception. She and Pickett balance their attacking runs well, and perhaps Pickett goes forward less due to how much Milliet attacks from the right.
New: Everything you need to know about the Louisville football QB Room
What still needs improvement
Goals from players not named DeMelo
Most good teams in the league have more than one semi-reliable goal scorer, and Racing hasn’t found theirs yet.
When Nadia Nadim returns to action, hopefully in July, she will most likely be the leading option again. In the meantime, nobody else on the team has stepped up enough to be considered a true consistent goal-scoring threat.
Thembi Kgatlana and Uchenna Kanu were advertised as goal scorers, but Kanu is still adjusting to the league and Kgatlana is just now fit and healthy enough to play more than 60 minutes.
Monaghan has never been a prolific scorer in this league, and Davis still has bouts of inconsistency. Goins has shown the ability to score late in matches, but she really is only a substitute player at this point. While Racing’s improved defense has made them more competitive recently, goals need to start coming soon.
General Finishing
It’s not like the players mentioned about aren’t getting chances. Racing is third in the league in shots and shots on target/match. It’s just that several of the shots on target lack any real sting in them and they are leaving shots untaken by having poor final touches in the box, especially from the forwards.
One thing that I don’t hear discussed very much, so I will do it here is how the high press is supposed to create offense. In my mind, you press high to either force a mistake with your opponent out of position or to keep possession to continue a sustained attack. I think any high-pressing team can convert on the first type of situation where your opponent is taken off guard by giving away possession and losing their general defensive shape.
That is basically the same principle used in counter-attacking, just higher up the pitch. However, Racing presses high to keep their opponent pinned into their own half just as much for defensive reasons as offensive ones. The high press has been more effective recently and especially late in matches when used as a defensive scheme to prevent an attack. However, the flip side of this that Racing’s opponents have started to maintain their defensive shape against them when Racing presses high. They are basically inviting them to score from extended possession, something Racing has not done consistently well recently.
I truly believe that you need to be clinical in your finishing when you have possession. The goal naturally has fewer defenders in front of it when you attack in transition, so there is much more of the goal to aim at. If Racing are going to continue to press high, they are going to have to show that they can score when they have extended periods of possession. This is basically what doomed them vs. North Carolina. They couldn’t turn their good possession into anything meaningful.
If I were an opposing coach, I would frankly be salivating at the chance to counterattack vs. this team. In fact, I know the exact formation and tactic that I would like to try, but I obviously won’t share that here.
What about the Challenge Cup?
This section of the season saw the beginning of the Challenge Cup schedule for Racing and the verdict is: so far, so very good.
Racing realistically don’t have any chance of winning the league this year, but they sit in really good position in the Challenge Cup after 2 matches. Coach Björkegren has spoken openly about his desire to win every competition that the club enters, and frankly, he and the players would both greatly benefit from a semifinal appearance in this competition.
His hot seat has cooled off a bit, although I wouldn’t consider it “cold” especially with a general manager in place who didn’t hire him, but he is in no immediate danger after amassing 4 wins and 2 draws from his last 7 matches in all competitions.
Racing does benefit from a couple of things. Their group is probably the weakest of the three groups (demonstrated by the current standings with none of the teams in playoff position). In addition, Björkegren is rotating more shrewdly than his opposing coaches. Racing is one of the deeper teams in the league. While their starters for the first 2 matches were rotated from the previous matches, they included starting-level talent. Chicago was especially embarrassing in their performance vs Racing, putting up no real fight until late in the second half. Kansas City was intent on focusing on the league match at home so heavily rotated in the cup match, which ultimately backfired for them too.
Therefore, Racing Louisville now finds themselves poised to take real control of the group with a win on Wednesday at home vs. Houston. The Dash and Current both have 3 points, but Houston might decide to prioritize the league due to being only a point out of playoff position.
Houston might see their upcoming home match against the OL Reign as the priority and Racing has the advantage of playing its next match on Sunday vs. Saturday.
The remaining 3 matches will take place during the World Cup, and unless DeMelo gets a surprise call-up, Racing will have their best player available during that stretch which could bode well for their chances of making the semifinals.
Should Racing Louisville concede the playoffs to focus on the Challenge Cup?
No, and the schedule makes it so that they don’t have to. If they ultimately make the semifinals on September 6th and finals on September 9th it wouldn’t really interfere with the league schedule at all. Therefore, everything is still left to play for.
However, as I repeatedly state on my site it is now a mathematics and history problem more than anything else. On the history side, there are two things working against Racing. The first is that it likely will take in the 30-to-33-point range to get into sixth position. The second goes hand-in-hand with the mathematical challenge. Racing would likely need to achieve points at the rate of 1.6 to 1.9 points per match to have a fighting chance of making the playoffs.
The best 3-match stretch for Racing this year is 2 points/match and the best 5-match stretch is 1.6 points/match. Both of those sustained across the 11 remaining matches could prove to be good enough, but when compared to their current season rate of 1.1, it would take drastic improvement for an extended period.
It’s not impossible, but not something I would wager on as a Racing Louisville fan at this point.
