Addressing the expectations for Louisville basketball entering a season full of uncertainty.
Louisville basketball ended the 2019-20 season in a way that it never had to before, and now the Cardinals begin a strange 2020-21 season in a similar manner.
For Cardinals fans, the reality of the state of Louisville basketball is humbling. On the heels of a solid season in year two under head coach Chris Mack, the season was canceled before the postseason could even begin, leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of everyone involved and unjustly ending the careers of five beloved Cardinals. Thanks to those graduations, transfers, and now, injuries, Louisville will field a team that has started a combined five games in a Cardinals uniform.
When you add a heaping of inexperience, a dash of 2020 COVID-19 uncertainty, and a healthy serving of potential looming NCAA sanctions, you have a recipe for an unsettled fanbase.
The only thing more uncertain than this season for Louisville basketball is everything that could follow. For the Cardinals, that could be both a terrifying proposition and a comforting thought. Nationally, Louisville enters the season in pretty unfamiliar territory; unranked in all polls, selected to finish fifth in the ACC, and with relatively low expectations overall.
Regardless of if Louisville plays seven, or the scheduled 27 regular-season games in 2020-21, how much the Cardinals manage to squeeze out of this season could very well steer the narrative for the next few years.
So, with all of this in mind, what should the expectation be for Louisville basketball?
Assessing the schedule
The expectations have to start by addressing the Louisville schedule. On the front end, the Cardinals appear to have a few easy wins, even for an inexperienced squad. The Wade Houston Tip-off classic is sprinkled with names like Prairie View A&M, Evansville, and UNC Greensboro.
However, some challenges await as well. Louisville travels to preseason No. 7 Wisconsin for an ACC-Big Ten tilt. They host Seton Hall, Western Kentucky, and Kentucky all by December 26th– None of which will be easy wins.
Sandwiched between Wisconsin and Kentucky is a pair of games against conference foes Pitt and NC State. In addition to what is always a challenging slate, Louisville plays Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, and Virginia Tech twice. Louisville also travels to North Carolina in 2021.
The ACC slate is hard enough as it is, but with the season being limited to 27 games, Louisville hitting the 20-win mark is going to be a tough ask.
Addressing returning depth
Next, to set expectations, you have to look at what Louisville brings back from last season and where the Cardinals are going to have sustained depth.
Louisville obviously loses all five starters, but the Cardinals also lose a veteran specialist in Ryan McMahon off the bench.
To add insult to injury, or, in this instance, to add injury to injury, Louisville will be without veteran big man and captain Malik Williams for the majority of, if not the entire season. The Cardinals will not see key graduate transfer Charles Minlend get much playing time until around Christmas, and key reserve Josh Nickelberry is still working his way back from an injury.
That leaves Louisville with Carlik Jones, David Johnson, Dre Davis, Samuell Williamson, JJ Traynor, Quinn Slazinski, Aidan Igiehon, JJ Traynor, and Gabe Wiznitzer as their only rostered scholarship players. Louisville doesn’t have enough scholarship guys to play an intrasquad scrimmage. The Cards will have to rely on some non-scholarship guys to fill in until Minlend and Nickelberry return to the fold.
We can talk about how great of a backcourt tandem Jones and Johnson could be. We can make educated guesses about the futures of frontcourt players like Slazinski and Igiehon. But to put a number on this season would be premature.
Louisville basketball has the potential to surprise some people this year, but there are too many variables at play during a shortened year with an injury-riddled program to unfairly place expectations on this program.
If you’re a Louisville fan wanting to know how to grade this team, allow the Wade Houston Classic to be a litmus test for the Cardinals. Let’s see how things look out the gate and then reevaluate expectations as conference play begins.
