Louisville basketball almost certainly might play at North Carolina on Saturday. Let’s preview the Cards and the Tar Heels.
Just as soon as we had accepted that Louisville basketball would be on another prolonged pause, it looks like the Cardinals will actually play a game on Saturday.
After Syracuse traveled to Louisville and both teams appeared ready to roll on Wednesday, another positive test within the Louisville program halted the fifth consecutive game for the Cardinals.
However, it appears now that Chris Mack’s squad followed whatever necessary protocol that was needed. At 8 PM on Friday, UofL will board a plane and head to Chapel Hill.
Although almost every Cardinal appeared to be good to go as recently as 6:00 PM on Friday night, Mack received word prior to a presser that Louisville basketball may be shorthanded. Mack and Louisville staff cannot give any details, but he said he is unsure of who will be available for the game. He cited a conflict between the medical people and “the powers that be”.
The only player that we do know will play on Saturday is the only player who has not played this season– Malik Williams.
Mack confirmed that Williams will definitely play and estimated that the Cardinals senior forward could see “10-15 minutes.”
So, with all of that in mind, let’s take a look at a few key storylines leading up to the Cards and the Heels.
Who: Louisville at North Carolina
Where: Dean Smith Center | Chapel Hill, North Carolina
When: Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 6:00 PM
How to Watch: ESPN
Radio: WKRD (790 AM) (Sirius channel 135, XM 193, Internet 955)
Series History: North Carolina leads 15-7; Louisville is 2-1 against UNC under Chris Mack
Last Meeting: Louisville 72, North Carolina 55 (February 22, 2020)
Spread Check: North Carolina -3
Uniform Check: The basketball gods can’t let them lose in these, right?
Who will be out for Louisville basketball?
The biggest and most important storyline around this game is who plays for Louisville basketball.
Obviously, given the delay to Wednesday’s game, there figures to be at least one Cardinal out. How that impacts the team remains to be seen. What we do know is that regardless of who is out, Louisville basketball can ill afford to be more shorthanded than it already is.
The Cardinals have hardly found the chance to work veteran Charles Minlend into the lineup. Williams is close to a return, but how much he can contribute is unknown. Behind guards Carlik Jones and David Johnson, there is not much in the way of depth.
Yes, it will be great to have Louisville basketball back. The Cards just need to get in games at this point. However, being short-handed against a deep UNC squad coming off a three-week pause is not ideal. Especially when Louisville has no idea who can and cannot play less than 24 hours from tip-off.
Can Louisville hang with UNC on the boards?
Like we talked about with Syracuse, North Carolina’s brand under Roy Williams has remained consistent.
The Tar Heels rebound the ball at an incredible rate. They are second in the nation in offensive rebounds, and third in total rebounds. UNC is tops in the ACC in every possible rebounding category.
Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks make up a massive frontcourt comprised of two bigs that are 6’10,” 240-pounds. 6’11,” 265-pound freshman Day’Ron Sharpe provides another beefy body upfront.
Those three players alone combine for almost 32 points and 22 rebounds per game for North Carolina.
For a Louisville basketball squad without a true big, that is a massive match-up issue. Not only does UNC have a shipload of efficient big men, but they are aggressors on the boards and represent a lot of fouls to give.
It will be up to Louisville big men Jae’Lyn Withers and JJ Traynor with, perhaps, a sprinkle of Williams, to try to mitigate their effectiveness as much as possible by limiting the Heels on the glass. Additionally, Louisville wings like Samuell Williamson and Quinn Slazinski must look to hit the glass every time the ball is in the air. This is the key to the game in my opinion.
Will the Cards try to dictate the pace?
Another part of North Carolina’s identity is its ability to get out in transition. Louisville fans know freshman guard Caleb Love well. The former Louisville basketball recruit is UNC’s second-leading scorer and can be lethal in transition.
North Carolina is 61st in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo ratings. That is a direct juxtaposition to Louisville, who ranks 298th.
Louisville doesn’t mind picking up the pace. In fact, Louisville has been the most successful this season in games where the tempo is higher and the Cards get more offensive possessions.
The issue lies with Louisville’s depth. Although UNC isn’t head and shoulders above Louisville talent-wise, it is tough for Louisville to run with a team with the depth of the Tar Heels.
Predictions
Matt McGavic: Louisville 65, North Carolina 70
Jacob Lane: Louisville 59, North Carolina 70
Spencer Brown: Louisville 62, North Carolina 73
Dalton Pence: Louisville 64, North Carolina 75
Presley Meyer: Louisville 76, North Carolina 72
Tanner Hickman: Louisville 54, North Carolina 80
Alan Thomas: Louisville 69, North Carolina 66
