Examining the relationship between Purdue’s results in 2022 and the expectations for Louisville football in 2023.
Part One – Passing
Over the past week we have been digging into the numbers of Louisville football and its newest transfer players, hoping to shine some light on things we can expect this season. As you all know, Louisville does not only have new players at key positions, but also have a new coach calling the shots.
This is going to be part 1 of a three-part breakdown on Jeff Brohm by the numbers. In this series we will only be looking at last year’s Purdue team and what the advanced stats said about the offense. Hopefully this will give us some insight of what to be expecting starting September 1st.
For part 1 we are going to be looking at what Brohm is known for, the passing game. Specifically, lets look at former Purdue starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
By the Numbers Series on State of Louisville:
Overview
In 2022 Aidan O’Connell threw for 3,117 yards on 451 attempts. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and threw 22 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. His average depth of target was 8.4 yards, and his adjusted completion percentage was 72.4%.
Of Purdue’s 927 plays in 2022 they threw the ball 562 times and ran the ball 365 times. On 27.6% of Purdue’s drop backs they ran a play action concept completing 63% of those attempts. O’Connell was kept clean on 75.7% of his drop backs and was under pressure 24.3% of those plays. Overall Purdue’s passing game graded out as 68.2 on PFF.
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Distance
Behind the Line of Scrimmage
Of Purdue’s passing plays 16% of them were thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Those 72 attempts led to 67 completions and 456 total yards. The adjusted completion percentage of these attempts were 98.6%.
0-9 Yards (Short)
The majority of Purdue’s passing attempts in 2022 came in these short passing concepts. In total, 42.6% went to this distance of the field and accounted for 1,228 yards totaling 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Purdue did struggle with drops in this area of the field bringing the adjusted completion percentage up to just 80.2 percent.
Of everywhere Purdue attacked, the middle of the field in this range was the most popular. Of the 192 short attempts, 137 of them went to the middle of the field. O’Connell also struggled with turnovers in this area throwing 5 interceptions.
10-19 Yards (Medium)
Purdue also attacked this area of the field regularly attempting 113 (25.1%) throws to the medium depth of the field. This accounted for 989 yards with 11 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. This is also the distance that Purdue took the most risks having 11 turnover worthy plays.
Again, Purdue relentlessly attacked the middle of the field in this range. Of the 113 attempts to the medium depth of the field, 60 of them went between the hashes. This is also where Purdue was most effective in the passing game grading out at an 85.7.
20+ Yards (Deep)
Purdue only attacked the deep parts of the field 47 times. Of those 12 were completed for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns. O’Connell’s adjusted completion percentage was only 29.8%.
When attacking deep Purdue showed the ability to not be as concentrated as the other two areas of the field. However, they were still most effective when attacking the center part of the field grading out at an 83.4.
What it means for Louisville football
When we think of Jeff Brohm we naturally think of the passing game, and for good reason. However, what we have in our head may not be entirely accurate. Brohm loves to scheme open his best players in space and allow the athlete to make plays. This means he regularly challenges man coverage on short throws to see if his guy can make a play. It also means that he is very willing to get creative with throws behind the line of scrimmage to attack a numbers advantage when the defense shows zone.
Even though the most volume went short I still find myself coming back to this 10–19-yard range on the field. So much of Purdue’s explosiveness came when attacking this area of the field scoring half of their touchdowns from this distance. With Louisville football’s tight end position still having some uncertainty, whoever ends up living in this area of the field is going to have a big year.
I personally think it is Kevin Coleman who will be living in this area of the field, but I am also going to be watching if Louisville gets creative with who they use at tight end. Chris Bell is a name that has been going around since the start of camp and I can see them using him as a hybrid Tight end if no one else breaks through. If they do, I can see his athleticism and skill being a huge advantage in this area of the field.
Louisville is going to have more weapons than Purdue did last year so I expect there to be more downfield targets this season. If Louisville starting quarterback and vet to Brohm’s system Jack Plummer can be more effective in that area of the field, I think it will open even more space in the medium distance.
Overall, this passing attack is going to be lightyears ahead of where Louisville was last year and that alone is exciting. Wherever they choose to attack it may take our eyes and brains some time to catch up with the new product. I will personally have my eyes glued to the before mentioned 15-yard range to see who end up claiming that territory because whoever it is I am predicting will have a big year.
It’s almost game time!
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