Film study: What Luke McCaffrey brings to Louisville football

Louisville football just landed their version of Taysom Hill.

Scott Satterfield heard the criticsm loud and clear from fans, media, and the like about the “vanilla” offense of Louisville football in 2021. If you were worried about things looking the exact same, you shouldn’t be after the big additions made to the roster this winter.

First Shai Werts, a multi-year starting quarterback transitioning to wide receiver was added via transfer. The redshirt senior QB officially turned wide receiver only amassed 3,750 yard passer and 3,100 yard rusher during his career at Georgia Southern.

That wasn’t enough for Satt.

Earlier this week, Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffrey (yes, that McCaffrey) tweeted his decision to finish his career as a Louisville Cardinal. That gives Satterfield a second quarterback/athlete in tow to play alongside the dual-threat that is Malik Cunningham.

Alright, I’m in.

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I sat down and watched a lot of film from the redshirt freshman and what I saw was quite interesting, to say the least. On the surface, the decision to bring in McCaffrey may seem like virtue signaling who will lead the program post-Malik. While that could be true, it may not take long for him to make an impact on the field.

Here’s what I saw on film and what I believe we’ll get from McCaffrey short-term and long-term.

How Luke McCaffrey ended up with the Louisville football program

I’m not sure what your expectations are of McCaffrey, but if you’re thinking he’s taking the starting QB role this year let me just go ahead and stop you there. McCaffrey is an elite athlete who has a ton of talent and potential as a quarterback. By no means is a finished product.

His numbers tell a story that may make you say “gross” but they don’t also tell the entire story. Nebraska had one of the most watered-down, stale offenses in all of college football in 2020. Finishing 66th in total offense, the scoring production reached an all-time low in the Scott Frost era, thus leading to an exodus of weapons.

On the surface, Nebraska’s offense does a lot of similar things to Louisville. You’ll see a lot of RPO, a lot of pre-snap motion, and an offense generally built on running the football (334 times in 8 games). That’s what makes this decision a win-win for Louisville football. There won’t be much of an overall learning curve, allowing them to focus on his passing.

As a passer McCaffrey shows promise. First off, he completed 64% of the passes he threw over 11 career games. Though he threw 6 interceptions to just 3 TD, one could make the argument those numbers were a product of the more than predictable Nebraska offense.

McCaffrey averaged only 6.1 yards per attempt as a redshirt freshman, compared to 11.8 as a freshman. He also never got the opportunity to play in long spurts as a starter. After beating Penn State this season, McCaffrey got one more start before going back to rotating with Adrian Martinez. Not an excuse, just something to keep in mind.

Tale of the tape: Passing

McCaffrey thrives when he’s able to use his athleticism; much like Cunningham. Whether it’s designed runs, read runs, or the manufactured run in passing situations, McCaffrey is dynamic with the ball in his hands.

If you turn on a football broadcast and don’t hear the phrase “extends plays” about your team’s quarterback, that’s probably not a good thing. In today’s football as a QB you have to be mobile enough to get outside of the pocket to avoid pressure. If not, you’re a standing target for defenses.

McCaffrey, while raw overall as a passer, shows the natural ability to move and throw. His pocket passing is a work in progress, although you saw small flashes in 2020; despite a putrid offensive line. In some instances, McCaffrey looks like he has all the pieces to be a star quarterback. While in others, he’s wildly inaccurate, makes poor decisions with the ball, and misses small details that prevent big plays.

What he lacks in pocket presence and arm strength, he more than makes up for with his ability to move. That speed & athleticism have been the main culprit behind his strange role as a Husker.

On the field with another quarterback some of the time. Playing as the primary quarterback in others. Lining up as a receiver and acting as a decoy in RPO situations. He essentially was Taysom Hill for Nebraska.

That comparison actually isn’t too far off either. At least from what the film shows.

Let’s take a closer look.

In the first play of the game against Penn State this season, McCaffrey had seconds before a rusher was in his face, and chose to run. He gets outside the pocket (almost to the LOS) and throws a bullet into a tiny window in triple coverage. You can’t teach that.

via GIPHY

Malik Cunningham has struggled to throw to the far outside sideline. McCaffrey shows that ability as a passer, evident in this #sexy throw against Illinois

They weren’t overly successful in the deep passing game at Nebraska during McCaffrey’s time. However, he showed against Iowa (2019) the ability to throw deep while on the run.

It’s a simple three-step dropback. But consider the bad snap and still executing the play-action handoff, and you see just a glimpse of the talent.

Natural raw talent. That’s something you’ll hear a ton with McCaffrey and this play from the Illinois game shows just that. How many QB’s can go that far down to the ground and deliver that pass accurately? Not many. This is why you take a chance on a player like McCaffrey.

This is just silly.

It’s not always good, however. As I’ve said, there are times when McCaffrey shows his rawness and inability to consistently hit throws from the pocket. Here’s an example of what should’ve been an easy completion but didn’t have the necessary velocity or accuracy.

Not even sure what this is.

You won’t see many highlights of him staying in the pocket and delivering a big-time throw. But that’s exactly what he did with a pass rusher closing in. This could’ve been a sack or even worse, but McCaffrey stands strong and delivers a nice pass on third down.

We’ll dive deeper into turnovers in a second, but here’s an example of the rawness you see in McCaffrey’s game. He looks off his first target before going deep to a wide-open receiver. He doesn’t put enough air on the pass, it’s three yards short of the intended target and an easy interception for the Illinois safety.

This type of mistake can be corrected with film-watching and reps, so I expect him to be able to clean this up. However, in Louisville’s offense where you have big open plays downfield, a quarterback throwing this type of pass consistently won’t cut it.

Turnovers/Decision Making

Speaking of turnovers.

There were plenty of fluky picks for McCaffrey. But there were also a lot of dangerous throws that quite frankly could’ve been picked.

When you’re a dynamic athlete, it’s pretty easy to think you can do just about anything. Even if it’s not true.

Against Penn State with the game all but over, McCaffrey shows where he has to improve as a thrower.

On 3rd & 5 in his own endzone up by 7, McCaffrey drops back and throws a pass right into double coverage. There’s a lot of bad here, including game management and missing two wide open crossers just short of the first down marker. McCaffrey throws off his back foot in the face of pressure and nearly gives Penn State a chance to tie it up.

This one is equally bad. After barely avoiding a botched snap touchdown, McCaffrey is able to use his athleticism to make something out of nothing. That’s before turning something into something else for the other team. This was one of his 3 picks against the Illini and it’s clear this could’ve been avoided.

The biggest question fans are going to have will be about his interceptions, and footage like this certainly doesn’t help. The raw athleticism is beyond obvious, but the turnovers are glaring and quite frankly, pretty bad.

Tale of the tape: Running

You saw a glimpse of McCaffrey’s athleticism as a passer, but this is 100% dedicated to what he can do on the ground.

Even at 200-pounds, McCaffrey runs like a guy who is 220 or 230 pounds. He’s fast as hell and capable of beating even the fastest linebackers and defensive backs on the edge. He’s also more than willing to lower his shoulder and run someone over in an attempt to get a few extra yards.

Here’s a great example.

Here he shows his wiggle, escaping a hit, making a linebacker (who was playing spy) miss on way to a long first down.

If you need any confirmation that his speed holds up against top defenses, there’s this. Showing his versatility, McCaffrey is the second QB in a 2-QB set, and motions into the backfield. He takes the carry and busts outside like (if only I could think of someon…) Christian McCaffrey.

Louisville football fumbled the ball 12 times in 2020, so this next clip stings a little. McCaffrey shows a lot of similiarties to Cunningham when it comes to protecting the football. Here’s a big play turned turnover against Ohio State.

Deciding to run vs. when to throw

A decision to run or pass by a quarterback has to be made in a matter of seconds. The margin for error is slim, and some quarterbacks have the ability to make smart decisions. Others not so much.

McCaffrey appears to be a guy who chooses wisely when to run vs. when to throw in RPO plays. Against Penn State on first down, Nebraska runs a RPO where McCaffrey can hand it to the running back or roll out and hit the tight end on the sideline.

Here he reads the defense perfectly, twice. Deciding to keep it and go for about 15 yards. The other plays would’ve resulted in a sack (should he have stayed in the pocket), and a 2-3 yard catch.

Right on theme here, good comes with bad. On the first play of the game against Illinois, McCaffrey does this.

A sneak peek of his role in 2021

Barring injury, Cunningham will be the starter in 2021. Even with that, I expect McCaffrey to have a decent impact this season. Here’s why.

On a 1st and 10 or even 3rd and short, Satterfield can run his favorite play with McCaffrey in at QB. Assuming Louisville’s offense is better with running the football on early downs and at moving the sticks, this play will be something we see tons of.

The variations of what Satterfield can do are really endless. This is from 2019 against Maryland, with both McCaffrey and starter Adrian Martinez on the field. McCaffrey lines up at receiver comes back, receives the pitch, and throws a bootleg dart.

I’m smiling as I write this because the thought of having Cunningham, McCaffrey, and Werts on the field is crazy. Not to mention Braden Smith. McCaffrey is versatile as any player on Louisville’s roster, and this play shows it. Lining up as a running back, McCaffrey runs a simple swing route. Martinez hits him in stride and he gains about 7 yards on 2nd and 14. I expect to see this a lot.

Final analysis

This move by Satterfield and staff deserve praise. But that comes with a caveat. Role matters.

While it’s clear McCaffrey is a project as a thrower, why not take a risk on a former four-star athlete who has the ability to impact games in a variety of ways?

I believe this is a low-risk, high-reward move situation for Louisville football, as they’ll be guaranteed to get another dynamic weapon regardless of if McCaffrey ever starts at QB long-term. I expect to see him in a Taysom Hill type of role this season at Louisville, while he “redshirts” at the “true” quarterback position. Meaning, he spends a season working on immersing himself in the position.

McCaffrey’s brother, Christian, once said he (Luke) “had all the tools” to be an elite quarterback. I believe that to be true, but it can’t be right away. And that’s perfectly okay.

In 2021, McCaffrey can be an athlete/specialist for the Louisville football offense in certain packages, adding a new offensive dynamic. Defenses will have a hard time figuring out what to do with QB’s like Cunningham and McCaffrey on the field. Not to mention what can happen when you add in Werts to the mix.

2022 and beyond, whatever happens from there depends on his development as a passer. More than likely he’d compete with Conley, TJ Lewis, and any incoming quarterbacks in the class of 2022.

Can he become a starter, star, or even more? Yes, absolutely. But it won’t be this year, and it’s not a certainty.