Trying to stay in the ACC Title game hunt, Louisville football will have to get through fellow contender, Duke.
There’s no time to mess around here, Louisville football fans.
Let’s breakdown a very tough Duke team.
First Down: What to Know
Who: Duke (5-2, 2-1) at Louisville (6-1, 3-1)
Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium | Louisville, KY
What: UofL could beat multiple ranked teams in consecutive seasons
When: Saturday, October 28th, 2023 at 3:30 PM
How to Watch: ESPN
How to Listen: 93.9 FM in Louisville
Series History: Louisville leads 3-0
Last Meeting: Louisville won at Duke 62-22 last year
Spread Check: Louisville -6.5 (O/U 46)
Thread Check:
via: Braeden Schmidt, Instagram
Vibe Check:
Second Down: Depth Chart
Quarterback
13 Jack Plummer (6-5, 215, Sr.)
19 Brock Domann (6-2, 225, Sr.)
OR 15 Harrison Bailey (6-5, 230, Jr.)
OR 6 Evan Conley (6-2, 210, Sr.)
OR 10 Pierce Clarkson (6-1, 190, Fr.)
OR 12 Brady Allen (6-6, 220, R-Fr.)
Running Back
25 Jawhar Jordan (5-10, 185, R-Jr.)*
4 Maurice Turner (5-10, 190, So.)
23 Isaac Guerendo (6-1, 225, Sr.)
Wide Receiver
1 Jamari Thrash (6-1, 180, R-Jr.)
2 Jadon Thompson (6-2, 185, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
3 Kevin Coleman Jr. (5-11, 180, So.)
OR 9 Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (5-10, 170, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
7 Jimmy Calloway (6-0, 190, R-So.)
OR 0 Chris Bell (6-2, 225, So.)
Tight End
42 Josh Lifson (6-3, 235, Gr.)
OR 85 Nate Kurisky (6-3, 235, So.)
OR 84 Joey Gatewood (6-4, 245, R-Sr.)
OR 11 Jamari Johnson (6-5, 265, Fr.)
Left Tackle
55 Willie Tyler III (6-6, 320, R-Sr.)
70 Trevonte Sylvester (6-6, 280, R-So.)
Left Guard
68 Michael Gonzalez (6-4, 305, Jr.)
67 John Paul Flores (6-4, 305, R-Sr.)
Center
61 Bryan Hudson (6-5, 305, R-Sr.)
51 Austin Collins (6-3, 290, R-So.)
Right Guard
51 Austin Collins (6-3, 290, R-So.)
71 Joshua Black (6-2, 280-R-Jr.)
Right Tackle
74 Eric Miller (6-7, 305, R-Sr.)
77 Vincent Lumia (6-2, 295, Sr.)
–
Defensive End
9 Ashton Gillotte (6-3, 270, Jr.)
15 Kameron Wilson (6-2, 230, R-So.)
32 Ryheem Craig (6-3, 235, R-So.)
Nose Tackle
99 Dezmond Tell (6-1, 290, Jr.)
OR 91 Tawfiq Thomas (6-4, 300, So.)
44 Selah Brown (6-2, 285, So.)
Defensive Tackle
41 Ramon Puryear (6-3, 270, R-Jr.)
58 Jeffery Clark (6-0, 290, R-Jr.)
OR 90 Jermayne Lole (6-3, 310, Gr.)
OR 93 Jared Dawson (6-2, 305, R-So.),
Leo (DE/LB)
14 Stephen Herron (6-3, 240, R-Sr.)
95 Mason Reiger (6-4, 250, Jr.)
15 Kameron Wilson (6-2, 230, R-So.)
12 Popeye Williams (6-3, 250, So.)
OR 98 Adonijah Green (6-6, 225, Fr.)
Middle Linebacker
24 Jaylin Alderman (6-1, 230, Jr.)
22 Keith Brown (6-2, 235, Jr.)
6 Stanquan Clark (6-3, 230, Fr.)
Weakside Linebacker
34 T.J. Quinn (6-1, 230, R-So.)
13 Gilbert Frierson (6-1, 220, R-Sr.)
17 Jackson Hamilton (6-1, 220, R-So.)
STAR (LB/S)
10 Benjamin Perry (6-3, 205, R-So.)
35 Antonio Watts (6-2, 225, So.)
Cornerback
2 Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (6-0, 190, Jr.)
29 Storm Duck (6-1, 200, R-Sr.)
Cornerback
3 Quincy Riley (6-0, 185, R-Jr.)
28 Trey Franklin (5-10, 185, R-Jr.)
30 Derrick Edwards III (5-11, 180, R-So.)
Free Safety
5 Josh Minkins (6-2, 200, Jr.)
11 Cam’Ron Kelly (6-2, 210, R-Sr.)
Free Safety
27 Devin Neal (6-0, 210, Jr.)
11 Cam’Ron Kelly (6-2, 210, R-Sr.)
Punter
40 Brock Travelstead (6-1, 205, Jr.)
OR 39 Carter Schwartz (6-4, 215, Fr.)
OR 93 Brady Hodges (6-1, 200, Jr.)
Placekicker
40 Brock Travelstead (6-1, 205, Jr.)
92 Nick Lopez (6-1, 190, R-Sr.)
Holder
93 Brady Hodges (6-1, 200, Jr.)
39 Carter Schwartz (6-4, 215, Fr.)
Long Snapper
48 Shai Kochav (6-3, 240, R-So.)
32 Hayden Travelstead (6-0, 200, Fr.)
Kick Returner
25 Jawhar Jordan (5-10, 185, R-Jr.)
23 Isaac Guerendo (6-1, 225, Sr.)
Punt Returner
3 Kevin Coleman Jr. (5-11, 180, So.)
3 Quincy Riley (6-0, 185, R-Jr.)
9 Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (5-11, 170, Jr.)
Third Down: What to Watch For
Health will impact both teams
Louisville
It’s that time of year. Louisville football just reached the halfway point of the season, and predictably, a number of players are beat up.
Most notably, Louisville lost veteran offensive lineman Renato Brown for the season after a lower extremity injury in warmups at Pitt.
Austin Collins will fill in for Brown at right guard.
Against the Panthers, star running back Jawhar Jordan started the game but did not come back in after the first quarter. Head coach Jeff Brohm indicated on Monday that Jordan was day-to-day. However, a post on his Instagram story Thursday night might be indicative of Jordan getting the all-clear.
I’d expect Jordan to play and have an impact on the game. However, I’d think he will still yield some of his normal snaps to Isaac Guerrendo and Mo Turner. Additionally, I went on record this week that I believe Guerrendo will rip off a long one in the coming weeks. We have IG any-time touchdown as part of a nice little parlay this week.
Finally, corner Jarvis Brownlee is still day-to-day, per Brohm on Monday. Storm Duck and Marquis Groves-Killebrew filled in during Brownlee’s absence after he tweaked an existing injury at Pitt. I’d expect Brownlee to play as well.
Duke
On Duke’s end, health issues are threatening to unravel a dream season for the Blue Devils.
Mike Elko’s squad began the season by trouncing Clemson and then took then top-10 Notre Dame to the wire. However, on the final offensive possession of that Notre Dame loss, star Duke QB Riley Leonard suffered a serious high ankle sprain.
Leonard missed Duke’s next game against NC State and played the following game at Florida State. Against the Noles, though, he aggravated the injury and missed the final three drives.
Duke has not been nearly as lethal offensively without the talents of Leonard. He is a projected first-round draft pick and that impact is felt when he is out of the game.
Duke had a 20-17 lead vs FSU before Leonard exacerbated his injury. Leonard was 7/16 (44%) for 69 yds, 0 TD, and 1 interception.
Duke lost to FSU 21-0 AFTER Leonard went out. His backup, Henry Belin IV, went 1-for-6 for 7 yards. Duke had 35 yards in the last quarter and some change, including two drives that had multiple plays of negative yardage.
Without Leonard for 5 quarters, Duke has accounted for 336 yards; 114 yards passing, and 225 rushing. The Blue Devils completed just five passes in that stretch. That’s one per quarter (that UofL degree is paying off, baby!).
The other significant injury on the Duke roster is to corner Myles Jones. Duke, as a whole, is excellent in pass coverage but Jones’ 90.6 coverage grade per PFF is out of this world. He is 2nd in the FBS among players with 100 coverage snaps.
“It’ll probably be a race against the clock to get him ready for Saturday,” Elko conceded when asked about the Jones injury. “Unfortunately, he’s just got nicked up again at the end of that NC State game and we weren’t able to have him available last week.”
Surmise it to say that the Louisville football offense has been stronger than Duke’s, while the Blue Devil’s pass defense has been a major strength.
Duke can ill-afford a game without Leonard and Jones. But it feels like Louisville is mostly healthy (save Brown) while Duke will struggle to get its two best players on the field on Saturday.
Duke’s Run Defense has been susceptible
Overall, Duke’s defense is perhaps the best in the ACC. It conceded 7 points to Clemson, 21 to Notre Dame, and just 3 to NC State.
Duke held a fantastic FSU offense to 17 points until the beginning of the fourth quarter before the Noles wore them down to close out the game.
The key to that contest was the fact that Florida State kept the Duke offense off the field, forcing Duke to keep trotting its defense out there.
Of course, the other key has been taking advantage of Duke’s rush defense.
Florida State racked up 152 yards on the ground, NC State accounted for 112 rushing yards, Notre Dame was responsible for 159, and Clemson went for 213.
Duke plays sound, fundamental defense. Can Louisville football remain patient and keep things moving on the ground? It will likely have to against a talented secondary and opportunistic pass rush.
Louisville football defense cannot get beat over the top
There are a lot more ways for Louisville to win this game than for Duke, in my opinion.
But, if Duke is going to get out with a win, I suspect it will be because of Belin getting things going in the pass game.
The Blue Devils have been very particular with their approach on offense without Leonard, and that has started with getting off to an explosive start through the air.
Belin is sound enough behind center to punish the Louisville football secondary.
The Cards cannot allow big plays over the top. If Duke gets things going in the throw game and jumps out to a lead, it’s very difficult to mount a comeback against that defense.
A hot star is Crucial
Speaking of that, it’s pretty simple to me how Louisville football wins this one.
The Cards must get out to a good start on offense.
Duke is a team that wants to get a 1-2 possession lead on you and then sit on the ball for the rest of the game.
Louisville must be assertive early and often and force the Blue Devils to pass the ball to win.
Fourth Down Predictions
Standings: All tied at 6-1 on the season
Jacob: Louisville win 27-20
Matt: Louisville 28-24
Vince: Louisville 35-3
Pres: Louisville 33-13
