Let’s take a look at a huge reason Scott Satterfield’s seat is warming in Louisville: His team’s ability to put away victories. Why the team can’t finish games and what the offense must do better going forward.
The mantra all offseason for Louisville football was simple: “FINISH”.
The word could be found all around the building.
When we talked to players and coaches in the offseason, to a man, they all mentioned this exact thing. They wanted to finish each game with the same energy and effort that they began the game with. If they had a lead, they wanted to keep it. If they trailed, they wanted to have the mentality to finish stronger than the opponent.
This was an emphasis throughout off-season workouts. It continued into fall camp and beyond.
Last Friday at Central Florida was a good start. After a rocky first few drives, the Louisville football defense was lights out. And when it mattered the most, the Cards finished the game with crucial defensive stops.
However, this Friday at home against Florida State, the Cardinals allowed a troubling trend to rear its ugly head once again.
Leading 21-14 at halftime and 31-28 in the fourth quarter, the Cardinals refused the shut the door on a team with their backup quarterback and a number if key players missing.
A History of Letting Leads Slip
This is not a one-off situation for Louisville football. In fact, it’s pretty much one of the only ways that UofL has lost games in the Satterfield era.
Nearly every one of its 21 losses under Satterfield, can be grouped into two categories: Blowout losses and losses where UofL leads in the fourth quarter.
The blowout losses are about what you’d expect.
These are games where Louisville was “punched in the mouth” early by a bigger and more physical team.
Blowout Losses:
2022: Syracuse
2021: Kentucky, Ole Miss
2019: Kentucky, Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame
The outliers:
2021 at Wake Forest stands as an outlier among Satterfield’s losses. This was a game where Louisville’s offense was up to the challenge late. It was more of a “last team to have the ball wins” situation.
In fact, Wake Forest is the only team where Louisville kind of plays the same sort of games. In a 2019 thriller, Louisville pulled away 62-59 after losing the 4th quarter 28-14.
Then, there are the losses that seem a bit more unexpected. Louisville gets the job done for three quarters, but ultimately the offense stalls and the defense cannot get a stop.
However, this is a trend even in games that Louisville won. I will include these games as well.
Losses/ Close wins with Blown Leads in the 4th:
2022:
Florida State– Louisville leads 31-28 in 4th quarter | Turns the ball over twice in fourth
2021:
UCF (W)– Led 35-28 | UCF’s offense won the 4th quarter 14-7 | Louisville’s defense saves the game late with pick-6
Virginia– 17-point lead (30-13) in the 4th quarter | Outscored 21-3 in the 4th
FSU (W)– Led 31-13 at halftime | Louisville scores zero (0) points in the 2nd half
NC State– Led 10-7 entering 4th quarter | NC State wins the fourth quarter 21-3 | Louisville turns the ball over on downs 3 times in the 2nd half
Clemson– Led 24-17 entering 4th quarter | Clemson wins 4th 13-0
2020:
Virginia– Cavaliers win the 4th quarter 10-0
Georgia Tech– Led 21-14 at halftime | Georgia Tech wins the second half 32-6 & 4th quarter 20-0
2019:
Florida State– Louisville led 24-21 in the 4th quarter | FSU scored 14 unanswered with their backup QB (sound familiar?)
An Offensive Issue
So, what is the common theme between all of these games?
The defense not getting stops? You can certainly make this case. The vast majority of conversations I have heard from fans, on social media, radio, and more are a sharp criticism of the Louisville defense.
I am not going to argue that Louisville’s defense couldn’t stand to make a few more stops when they matter. Fans are right. The defense can stand to make improvements across the board.
There is reason, though, to believe that the defense is not the major issue with this program under Satterfield- Particularly of late.
Instead, I think it’s time to start looking at the bigger picture and doing more of an audit on the offensive side of the ball.
A birdseye view of the Louisville football offense shows that the common denominator in close Louisville losses is the offense refusing to put teams away.
In the close losses mentioned above, Louisville scored 3, 3, 7, 0, 3, 0, and 0 points in the fourth quarter of those games.
It’s more than just a troubling trend, it’s engrained into the identity of these Satterfield-era teams. Louisville may not close out games on defense, but the offense is certainly not doing them any favors to keep things out of reach.
A micro view of the issues that Louisville football is having points the blame nearly solely on the UofL offense as well.
The competition for the Cards has been stiffer in the early going this year than in years past. But, even factoring strength of schedule in, Louisville football has been downright bad on offense. Here are a few stats that support this claim:
- Louisville is 113th in points per game (19.5)
Only Notre Dame, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Iowa, and Colorado are worse among power five teams - Louisville ranks 89th in first-down offense
- The Cards are 91st in first-down conversion percentage
- Louisville is 103rd in Redzone offense
- Louisville is sixth-worst among power five teams in turnovers committed
Only Texas Tech, South Carolina, Auburn, Washington State, and Illinois have turned it over more - Louisville ranks 108th in 4th-down conversion percentage
- Louisville is 69th in total offense
The Cardinals have made serious regression on offense this season when compared to years past.
The statistics may even out a bit as we settle into conference play in the coming weeks. But the trends are alarming, nonetheless.
Learning to Ham and Egg it
Most importantly, it is is crucial for the Louisville football offense to step up when the defense does as well.
This is the most undervalued aspect when pointing to the true issues at hand.
Louisville has been excellent at starting strong on offense under Satterfield, particularly on scripted drives.
However, the issue comes into play when the UofL defense is actually getting stops and the offense is not able to take advantage.
As I pointed out after the Syracuse loss, Louisville football had plenty of time to get back into the game offensively. In fact, there was nearly a half of football played where neither team scored a point.
A similar thing happened at Central Florida. The Louisville defense held UCF to 0 points in 10 drives, while the offense scored just enough to eke out a win.
Florida State brought the same conundrum. Louisville football had five opportunities to take a two-possession lead and never did.
Card Chronicle’s Keith Wynne took a deep dive into this on Monday.
In 3 games this season Louisville’s defense has had the following stretches of consecutive stops (forcing a turnover or opponent punt):
Syracuse: 4 consecutive stops
UCF: 10 consecutive stops
FSU: 5 consecutive stops
The offense has scored twenty (20) total points off of those 19 stops.
Wynne also points out that Louisville has scored four times (24 points) after 8 forced three-and-outs by the defense. Meanwhile, the defense has only allowed 14 points off of 7 offensive turnovers.
When the offense falls off, the defense has been able to step up for long stretches.
Yet, we continue to blame the defense for breaking after bending for multiple quarters.
That is nauseating to think about. However, this is a trend across multiple seasons.
Per Wynne, in 2021, Louisville averaged 3.25 points per possession after stops in a series of 4 or more consecutive stops.
For reference, that number is 1.05 points per possession this season.
This has been a continuous regression. While the Louisville football defense has shown statistical improvement and strings together long stretches of excellent play, the UofL offense is becoming known for grinding to a halt at inopportune times.
I am all for making improvements on the defensive end. But to put it simply, that is not why Louisville football is losing games. It hasn’t been for the majority of the Satterfield era.
Satterfieid has no business calling games-